Civil Conflict Fragmentation and the Effectiveness of UN Peacekeeping Operations

Abstract

While the extant literature has highlighted the importance of UN peacekeeping operations (PKOs) in addressing commitment problems in civil wars, actor fragmentation presents additional challenges for conflict resolution. A higher number of competing actors not only worsens coordination problems but also aggravates the risk of opposition to a peace process, generating an environment prone to spoiler violence. This article argues that UN interventions matter more when commitment and coordination problems are worse, which corresponds to known traits of fragmented conflicts. Using data on civil conflict duration and intensity, we present evidence that UN PKOs are effective at mitigating adverse impacts of fragmentation. Fragmented conflicts are both longer and deadlier when the UN is not involved to support a peace process, while UN peacekeeping mitigates the effects of fragmentation.

Democratization as an impetus for peace talks in civil wars

“…We also control for UN peacekeeping to account for peace process spill-overs from one conflict to another as multiple rebel groups may observe and learn from the experiences of each other. UN peacekeeping operations are effective at addressing obstacles arising from conflict fragmentation and inspiring compliance with the peace process (Arı and Gizelis, 2020). Rebel groups outside of negotiations may bandwagon and join in negotiations when a credible peace process is developing thanks to UN peacekeeping.…”