Civil conflict sensitivity to growing-season drought

Uexküll, Nina von; Croicu, Mihai; Fjelde, Hanne; Buhaug, Halvard

doi:10.1073/pnas.1607542113

Cited by 358 publications

(206 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…The degree to which climate or environmental change contributes to social or political unrest or conflict is a hotly debated topic at the present time and one with no established consensus (Bernauer et al 2012, von Uexkull et al 2016. The field of research consists of studies that explore the relationship between climate and armed conflict, relying on both qualitative and quantitative methodological approaches (Bernauer et al 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Differences in resource management affects drought vulnerability across the borders between Iraq, Syria, and Turkey

Eklund¹,

Thompson²

2017

E&S

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ABSTRACT. Much discussion has taken place exploring a potential connection between the 2007-2009 Fertile Crescent drought and Syria's uprising-turned civil war beginning in 2011. This study takes an integrated perspective on the 2007-2009 drought in the border region of Iraq, Syria, and Turkey by looking at the meteorological, agricultural, and socioeconomic aspects of drought vulnerability. Satellite-based precipitation and vegetation data help outline the drought's spatial and temporal properties. In order to understand the context in which this drought happened, we also look at the trends in vegetation productivity between 2001 and 2015, as well as each country's different politico-economic factors affecting land and water resource management leading up to the drought. The findings show that, although the drought was severe in Syria, it was not the only country affected, nor necessarily the worst hit meteorologically. The agricultural drought lasted 2 yr in most affected areas on the Iraqi and Syrian sides, however, only 1 yr in the affected areas on the Turkish side. The vegetation trend analysis shows a striking difference between the Syrian and Turkish sides of the border. Turkey experienced a general improvement in land productivity between 2001 and 2015, whereas Iraq and Syria show a generally negative productivity trend. The fact that the decline in rainfall had different effects on crops in each of the three countries highlights the role government and private sector resource management and infrastructure play in reducing drought vulnerability. The findings of this study highlight the need for an integrated approach to research that investigates the interconnection between climate and conflict.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Differences in resource management affects drought vulnerability across the borders between Iraq, Syria, and Turkey

Eklund¹,

Thompson²

2017

E&S

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“…A study on the nexus of droughts and conflict in Asia and Africa found that droughts increase the likelihood of conflicts for groups which are dependent on agriculture and those who are politically marginalized in countries with high poverty levels (Uexkull et al 2016). People whose livelihoods depend on agriculture will be immediately affected by changes in the natural environment.…”

Section: Povertymentioning

confidence: 99%

A Region at Risk:

Vinke

Schellnhuber

Coumou

et al. 2017

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“…10 Fjelde and von Uexkull 2012;O'Loughlin et al 2012;Hsiang, Meng, and Cane 2011;Theisen, Holtermann, and Buhaug 2011;Buhaug 2010;Burke et al 2009. 11 CAN 2007 Von Uexkull et al 2016;Caruso, Petrarca, and Ricciuti 2016;Schleussner et al 2016;Buhaug et al 2015;Gartzke and Böhmelt 2015;Smith 2014;Maystadt and Ecker 2014;Koubi et al 2012. 13 See, e.g., Burke, Hsiang, and Miguel 2015a;Kelley et al 2015;Reuveny 2007.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Determinants of Environmental Migrants' Conflict Perception

Koubi¹,

Böhmelt²,

Spilker³

et al. 2018

Int Org

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Migration is likely to be a key factor linking climate change and conflict. However, our understanding of the factors behind and consequences of migration is surprisingly limited. We take this shortcoming as a motivation for our research and study the relationship between environmental migration and conflict at the micro level. In particular, we focus on environmental migrants' conflict perceptions to shed new theoretical and empirical light on this debate. We contend that variation in migrants' conflict perception can be explained by the type of environmental event people experienced in their former home, i.e., gradual, long-term or sudden onset, short-term environmental changes. We examine and further develop this argument before quantitatively analyzing newly collected micro-level data on intra-state migration from five developing countries. The results emphasize that migrants who suffered from gradual, long-term environmental events in their former homes are more likely to perceive conflict in their new location than those having experienced sudden, short-term environmental events. These findings are therefore in line with our theoretical argument that environmental migrants who suffer to a large degree from environmentally induced grievances, are ultimately more likely to perceive conflict and challenges in their new homes.

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Civil conflict sensitivity to growing-season drought

Cited by 358 publications

References 53 publications

Differences in resource management affects drought vulnerability across the borders between Iraq, Syria, and Turkey

Differences in resource management affects drought vulnerability across the borders between Iraq, Syria, and Turkey

A Region at Risk:

The Determinants of Environmental Migrants' Conflict Perception

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