Classification and identification of synoptic and non-synoptic extreme wind events from surface observations in South America

Vallis, Matthew Bruce; Loredo-Souza, Acir Mércio; Ferreira, Vanessa; Nascimento, Ernani de Lima

doi:10.1016/j.jweia.2019.103963

Cited by 21 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…Recently, methods have been developed to isolate and automatically separate mesoscale components [23][24][25][26][27], such as gust fronts and thunderstorms, from the macroscale geostrophically driven wind components, which are a great improvement on earlier manual methods. (See Additional Bibliography and the literature review in [27].)…”

Section: Discussion and Prospectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reliability of Extreme Wind Speeds Predicted by Extreme-Value Analysis

Cook

2023

Meteorology

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The reliability of extreme wind speed predictions at large mean recurrence intervals (MRI) is assessed by bootstrapping samples from representative known distributions. The classical asymptotic generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) and the generalized Pareto (GPD) distribution are compared with a contemporary sub-asymptotic Gumbel distribution that accounts for incomplete convergence to the correct asymptote. The sub-asymptotic model is implemented through a modified Gringorten method for epoch maxima and through the XIMIS method for peak-over-threshold values. The mean bias error is shown to be minimal in all cases, so that the variability expressed by the standard error becomes the principal reliability metric. Peak-over-threshold (POT) methods are shown to always be more reliable than epoch methods due to the additional sub-epoch data. The generalized asymptotic methods are shown to always be less reliable than the sub-asymptotic methods by a factor that increases with MRI. This study reinforces the previously published theory-based arguments that GEV and GPD are unsuitable models for extreme wind speeds by showing that they also provide the least reliable predictions in practice. A new two-step Weibull-XIMIS hybrid method is shown to have superior reliability.

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Section: Discussion and Prospectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reliability of Extreme Wind Speeds Predicted by Extreme-Value Analysis

Cook

2023

Meteorology

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“…Wind conditions in a given country were, and still are one of the main issues raised by researchers in wind engineering. Recently, such works have been carried out in various countries - [38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57]. These works use different time periods of data, different approaches to the description of parent and extreme data distributions, and different methods for estimating parameters of these distributions.…”

Section: Current Regulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characteristic velocity of strong wind for wind engineering purposes

2023

Archives of Civil Engineering

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Eurocode standard recommends using fundamental basic wind velocity (characteristic velocity) as the design value in civil engineering. There are different approaches to estimate this value depending on the climate features of the given area and the quality of environmental data. The estimation of the characteristic value requires statistical analysis of historical data regarding wind velocities measured throughout the country at meteorological stations. The results of the analysis are probability density distributions of this random variable for each meteorological station. On this basis, values of characteristic wind velocity with a mean return period of 50 years are determined. The zones with uniform velocities are delineated on the map of the country. In the case of Poland the last evaluation of wind zones took place over 15 years ago. Higher quality of measurement data on the one hand, and the introduction of the second generation of Eurocode standards on the other hand, create a need to check and update these zones. This work presents theoretical basis for the estimation of characteristic values of random variables in the context of wind velocity, comprehensively reviews practical methods used for this purpose and summarizes current situation in Poland, finally discusses the issues related to the heterogeneity of wind data, illustrating them with an example.

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“…Duranona (2015) extracted severe convective events that take place in Uruguay using temperature drops, abrupt wind direction shifts, and pronounced wind speed peaks. Vallis et al (2019) separated intense wind events into nonsynoptic, synoptic, and suspect, using surface data including wind speed and direction, temperature, atmospheric pressure and, when available, weather conditions.…”

Section: Extraction Of Thunderstorm Outflowsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Thunderstorm Downbursts and Wind Loading of Structures: Progress and Prospect

Solari

2020

Front. Built Environ.

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In 1961, Davenport published a paper, considered by most to be a critical work in the study of wind engineering, in which meteorology, micrometeorology, climatology, aerodynamics, and structural dynamics were embedded in a homogeneous framework of the wind loading of structures. This framework, known as Davenport chain and based on a wind model coherent with synoptic-scale extra-tropical cyclones, is so limpid as to become a sort of axiom. In 1977, Gomes and Vickery separated thunderstorm from non-thunderstorm winds, evaluated their extreme wind speed marginal distributions, and from them obtained a mixed statistical model later generalized to other wind types. This viewpoint, dealt with as a milestone in the emerging issue of mixed climatology, pointed out the difficulty of labeling a heterogeneous set of phenomena endowed with different velocity fields, frequencies, durations, and sizes by the generic term "wind." Many wind types, in particular tropical cyclones, tornadoes, and downslope winds are typical of limited and well-known areas. Extra-tropical depressions and thunderstorms are natural hazards that affect the whole planet. This paper provides a state-of-the-art discussion of thunderstorm downburst, one of the most spectacular and damaging events caused by nature, and its wind loading of structures. Also, in light of the planet's climatology evolution, this topic is a key issue of structural safety and sustainability.

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Classification and identification of synoptic and non-synoptic extreme wind events from surface observations in South America

Cited by 21 publications

References 13 publications

Reliability of Extreme Wind Speeds Predicted by Extreme-Value Analysis

Reliability of Extreme Wind Speeds Predicted by Extreme-Value Analysis

Characteristic velocity of strong wind for wind engineering purposes

Thunderstorm Downbursts and Wind Loading of Structures: Progress and Prospect

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