Classification and Prediction of Vehicle Lane‐Changing Crash Risk Levels Based on Video Trajectory Data

Abstract

To investigate the potential lane‐changing collision risks that may arise between vehicles during lane changes and those in the original lane, a model for vehicle lane‐changing collision risk is constructed specifically for this scenario, and a research analysis is conducted. First, based on vehicle trajectory data, a sample set capturing the relationships between vehicles traveling in a straight line and those changing lanes laterally is extracted and built. Interpolation methods are then applied to fill in missing values, outliers are eliminated, and data noise is smoothed during preprocessing. After preprocessing, a total of 468 vehicle pairs and 265,392 data points are obtained. Second, a real‐time collision time model is established based on the preprocessed data, and collision risk probabilities are calculated accordingly. Then, the collision risks are classified into four levels based on whether the vehicle on the side actually changes lanes and the severity of the collision risks. Finally, a light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) learning method is adopted to predict the risk levels and analyze the main factors that significantly impact the severity of collision risks. The results indicate that the longitudinal distance between the target vehicle and the preceding vehicle is the most critical influencing factor, followed by the speed of the target vehicle itself, and then the speed difference between the target vehicle and the preceding vehicle. The influence of other factors is relatively similar and does not have a significant impact.