Classification of risk to support decision-making in hazardous processes

Yang, Xue; Haugen, Stein

doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2015.07.011

Cited by 41 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…In this paper, we are focusing on what may be called operational planning decisions (Yang and Haugen, 2015). Decisions can be divided into planning decisions and execution decisions, where the main distinction lies in the time available for systematic comparison and evaluation of alternatives.…”

Section: The Planning Processmentioning

confidence: 99%

Visualizing risk related information for work orders through the planning process of maintenance activities

Sarshar

Haugen

2018

Safety Science

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Major accidents are characterized by complex causal patterns with many factors influencing the occurrence of such accidents. Within the offshore petroleum industry the causes can be found not just in the execution of maintenance work, but also in the preparations and planning before performing the work. Planning of the work activities plays an important role in managing the activities and installation risk by identifying hazards and ensuring measures are planned for. One important basis for developing good plans and plan the work properly is to have the right information available at the right time in a format that facilitates understanding of important risk related aspects of the work. This paper presents a computerized display for a concept for how risk related information can be visualized in an operational context when establishing work orders. Design iterations have included participants from operating companies on the Norwegian continental shelf. KeywordsVisualizing risk; risk understanding; planning process; work order; maintenance activities To view all the submission files, including those not included in the PDF, click on the manuscript title on your EVISE Homepage, then click 'Download zip file'. Cover letterDear Editor,We are submitting a manuscript for consideration of publication in Journal of Safety Science. The manuscript is entitled "Visualizing risk related information for work orders through the planning process of maintenance activities".We have tried to anonymize the paper as best could, but we believe reviewers might identify the authors since the paper builds on previous published journal papers.Extended summary:Major accidents are characterized by complex causal patterns with many factors influencing the occurrence of such accidents. Within the offshore petroleum industry, the causes can be found not just in the execution of maintenance work, but also in the preparations and planning before performing the work. Planning of the work activities plays an important role in managing the activities and installation risk by identifying hazards and ensuring measures are planned for. One important basis for developing good plans and plan the work properly is to have the right information available at the right time in a format that facilitates understanding of important risk related aspects of the work. This paper presents a computerized display for a concept for how risk related information can be visualized in an operational context when establishing work orders. Design iterations have included participants from operating companies at the Norwegian continental shelf.The starting point is that there are certain hazards, with associated probability and consequence that need to be managed. We identify relevant factors that influence risk and develop risk models to analyse risk. The output from this is a risk picture. This needs to be presented to the decision-makers (planners and others). Before a decision can be made, the information must be interpreted by the decision-makers and they shou...

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Section: The Planning Processmentioning

confidence: 99%

Visualizing risk related information for work orders through the planning process of maintenance activities

Sarshar

Haugen

2018

Safety Science

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“…It is a reflection of influences of the analysed activity on the baseline risk level of the plant or the site-specific average risk according to the classification scheme proposed by Yang and Haugen (2015). The site-specific average risk can be viewed as the long-term average risk for a plant, based on a set of assumptions about the condition of the systems/equipment to be used on the site and the types of activities taking place.…”

Section: Activity Consequence Risk (Acr)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The key task is accordingly identification of the interactions. Yang and Haugen (2015) recommended to use bow-tie to identify possible interactions via influence of activities to the elements in the bow-tie (i.e., hazards, triggers, proactive barriers, hazardous event, reactive barriers and consequences). This raises requirement to understand how the activities will influence the system locally and globally while planning.…”

Section: Relevant Rifs and Prmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The changes in risk from day-to-day are primarily activity driven, implying that an activity-based risk analysis rather than a system-based analysis is required (Haugen and Vinnem, 2015). When we are considering the risk associated with an operation on a daily basis, we need to consider different aspects of risk that consider human intervention with machines and the environment, which are activity consequence risk (ACR), activity performance risk (APR) and period risk (PR) (Yang and Haugen, 2015). This implies that human and organizational factors (HOFs) become more important to model properly.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Risk influence frameworks for activity-related risk analysis during operation: A literature review

Yang

Haugen

2017

Safety Science

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Experience gained in the petroleum activities have showed that major accident risk is inherent in daily activities. Risk influence methodology is perceived as a good candidate to model the activity-related risk, as a key input to operational planning decisions. The paper reviews and summarizes 11 risk influence frameworks that integrate organizational and human factors in a structured way. The intention was to evaluate how these frameworks and identified risk influencing factors (RIFs) can be used for activity-related risk analysis. The main conclusion is that it is not necessary to model explicitly RIFs for activity consequence risk -the effect that performing an activity will have on the risk level after the activity has been completed. Operational management RIFs, direct organizational RIFs, personal risk influencing factors, task characteristics RIFs, technical system RIFs, and environmental RIFs are relevant for activity performance risk -the risk associated with performing the action. Operational management RIFs influence planning, which is important to identification of interactions while estimating period risk -the risk for a plant or facility over a period.

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“…Average risk in a QRA study is typically averaged over a 12 month period. 'Instantaneous risk' applies to a substantially shorter period, without specifying exactly how long period, but may cover one day, one shift, one hour, etc., see further discussion in Yang (2014). QRA studies usually express FAR values averaged over a year.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decisions and decision support for major accident prevention in the process industries

Kongsvik

Almklov

Haavik

et al. 2015

Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries

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Decision making is a central component in the management of safety-critical operations. Some attempts have been made to employ Quantitative Risk Analysis as input to such decisions. Although adequate for long-term planning where the average risk is the relevant parameter, such systems tend to fall short in operational and instantaneous decisions where 'average risk' is of less relevance. In this paper we investigate how operational and instantaneous risk can be managed and supported.Our analysis is based on interviews and observation studies at a major plant processing hazardous fluids and gas. We suggest a typology for decisional situations at the plant, and relate these to well-known traditions in the literature of decision-making theory. Strategic decisions in the plant fit well into the characteristics of rational choice theory, operational decisions are well described in terms of bounded rationality, and, finally, instantaneous decisions are typically taken as described by naturalistic decision making theory.We suggest several principles for improving decision support. While many decisions today are based on a high degree of probabilistic information, we see a need to deploy more factual information to make the risk picture more relevant for both operational and instantaneous decisions. In addition, the available probabilistic information is often inaccurate; improving the probabilistic information base, through more nuanced criticality factors for example, will also be an improvement. Finally, a basic premise for improvements in the decision process, is the need to be conscious regarding what should be considered strategic, operational and instantaneous decisions.

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Classification of risk to support decision-making in hazardous processes

Cited by 41 publications

References 20 publications

Visualizing risk related information for work orders through the planning process of maintenance activities

Visualizing risk related information for work orders through the planning process of maintenance activities

Risk influence frameworks for activity-related risk analysis during operation: A literature review

Decisions and decision support for major accident prevention in the process industries

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