Clean and Affordable Norwegian Offshore Wind to Facilitate the Low-Carbon Transition

Abstract

Norwegian offshore wind power can be a significant electricity supply contributor to facilitate the Norwegian and European green transition. The Norwegian government aim to grant concessions of 30 GW offshore wind within 2040, however, the realisation of this target depends on numerous uncertainties, related to e.g., future development in technology, national energy demand, the European power market, as well as social acceptance of energy production and grid expansion. This chapter analyses the role and cost-competitiveness of offshore wind to facilitate the low-carbon transition towards 2050. The energy system model, IFE-TIMES-Norway, is used to quantify the techno-economic capacity and distribution of offshore wind towards 2050, along with its impact on the overall energy system. Our results demonstrate that the ambitions of the Norwegian government can be economically viable without the necessity of subsidies, however, the outcome depends on the future development of the European power market. Moreover, the correlation of the Norwegian offshore wind resources is relatively weak between the northern and southern regions, as well as with Northern European countries. Less simultaneity enables an overall smoother production across Europe, which can enhance energy security. Further, results show that Norwegian offshore wind can play a central role in the decarbonization of end-use sectors by enabling greater hydrogen production from electrolysis.