Climate Adaptation Engineering and Risk-based Design and Management of Infrastructure

Abstract

impact of climate change on infrastructure performance is a temporal and spatial process, but most existing models of infrastructure hazard and performance are based on a stationary climate. Moreover, relatively little attention has been paid to quantifying the costs and benefits of adaptation strategies (retrofitting, strengthening, enhanced designs) and assessing at what point in time climate adaptation becomes economically viable. There is increasing research that takes into account the changing climate risk in engineering to reduce the vulnerability of infrastructure -we define this as 'climate adaptation engineering'. The chapter will describe how riskbased approaches are well suited to optimising climate adaptation strategies related to the design and maintenance of existing infrastructure. I m p o r t a n t l y , t h e r e h a s a l s o b e e n s i g n i f i c a n t l y m o r e e m p h a s i s o n i m p a c t m o d e l l i n g t h a n c l imate adaptation engineering modelling. This is understandable when the current political and social environment is focused on mitigating (reducing) CO 2 emissions as the 'best' way to reduce the impact of a changing climate. However, even under an optimistic scenario where CO 2 emissions are abated to reduce temperature increases to 2˚C by 2100, IPCC ( 2007) reports that such a scenario (B1 or A1T) is likely only if non-fossil energy sources dominate. Latest research shows that CO 2 emissions continue to track at the high end of emission scenarios, with mean temperature increases of 4-5˚C more likely by 2100 (Peters et al. 2013). The impacts on people and infrastructure will be considerable if there is no climate adaptation engineering to existing and new infrastructure. For example, the 2007 Stern Review found that rising sea levels will result in tens to hundreds of millions more people flooded each year with a warming of 3 or 4˚C, and climate change may reduce GDP by up to 3% by 2100 (or $2.1 trillion per year based on 2011 GDP). The potential enormity of impacts of climate change leads some to posit that climate change can be a threat to national security (CNA 2007). On the other hand, higher temperatures in higher latitude regions such as Russia and Canada can be beneficial through higher agricultural yields, lower winter mortality, lower heating requirements, and a potential boost to tourism (Stern 2007). Lomborg ( 2009) assembled a group of international experts who found that climate change action ranked very low when compared with other hazard and risk-reducing measures, in this case the benefit-to-cost ratio for CO 2 mitigation was only 0.9 (not costeffective), but increased to 2.9 for a mix of mitigation and adaptation strategies. This highlights the cost-effectiveness of adaptation when compared to CO 2 mitigation.T h e t e r m s ' r i s k ' a n d ' r i s k m a n a g e m e n t ' a p p e a r i n t h e t i t l e s a n d t e x t o f m a n y c l i m a t e i m p a c t and adaptation studies (e.g. VG 2007, ATSE 2008, EEA 2012. However, these reports dwell on lists ...

Effects of climate variations and global warming on the durability of RC structures subjected to carbonation

“…On the other hand, RH varies between 65% and 70% by accelerating carbonation. These results could justify the implementation of an adaptation measure for this type of climate that could consist of increasing the concrete cover or the strength grade Stewart et al 2014). On the opposite, corrosion initiation risks are very low for the cities of Strasbourg, Clermont-Fd.…”

Economic assessment of climate adaptation strategies for existing reinforced concrete structures subjected to chloride-induced corrosion

“…when the concrete is new). Hence, the damage risk for repaired (new) concrete exposed to the environment for the first time at time of repair, t rep = iΔt, will change depending on the new climatic conditions and time of repairs (Bastidas-Arteaga & Stewart, , 2015Stewart et al, 2014):…”

Effects of climate variations and global warming on the durability of RC structures subjected to carbonation

“…On the other hand, RH varies between 65% and 70% by accelerating carbonation. These results could justify the implementation of an adaptation measure for this type of climate that could consist of increasing the concrete cover or the strength grade (Bastidas and Stewart et al 2014). On the opposite, corrosion initiation risks are very low for the cities of Strasbourg, Clermont-Fd.…”