Climate adaptation wedges: a case study of premium wine in the western United States

Abstract

Design and implementation of effective climate change adaptation activities requires quantitative assessment of the impacts that are likely to occur without adaptation, as well as the fraction of impact that can be avoided through each activity. Here we present a quantitative framework inspired by the greenhouse gas stabilization wedges of Pacala and Socolow. In our proposed framework, the damage avoided by each adaptation activity creates an 'adaptation wedge' relative to the loss that would occur without that adaptation activity. We use premium winegrape suitability in the western United States as an illustrative case study, focusing on the near-term period that covers the years 2000-39. We find that the projected warming over this period results in the loss of suitable winegrape area throughout much of California, including most counties in the high-value North Coast and Central Coast regions. However, in quantifying adaptation wedges for individual high-value counties, we find that a large adaptation wedge can be captured by increasing the severe heat tolerance, including elimination of the 50% loss projected by the end of the 2030-9 period in the North Coast region, and reduction of the projected loss in the Central Coast region from 30% to less than 15%. Increased severe heat tolerance can capture an even larger adaptation wedge in the Pacific Northwest, including conversion of a projected loss of more than 30% in the Columbia Valley region of Washington to a projected gain of more than 150%. We also find that warming projected over the near-term decades has the potential to alter the quality of winegrapes produced in the western US, and we discuss potential actions that could create adaptation wedges given these potential changes in quality. While the present effort represents an initial exploration of one aspect of one industry, the climate adaptation wedge framework could be used to quantitatively evaluate the opportunities and limits of climate adaptation within and across a broad range of natural and human systems.

Climate change, wine, and conservation

“…Calculating impacts on viticultural suitability by using daily extreme temperatures may yield different results than the 20-y mean monthly climatologies used here (11,38,39). Other studies that have used extreme daily temperatures show more pronounced changes in the projected range of viticultural suitability than the results presented here (11,38,39). Therefore, our findings may be conservative.…”

“…Therefore, our findings may be conservative. Growing degree day (GDD) estimates based on daily values may produce slightly different estimations of suitability than the GDD summation calculated from monthly means (11,38,39). Lower greenhouse gas concentrations (as in RCP 4.5) produce lesser decreases in current wine-producing regions and moderate the amount of newly suitable area (Table S1), indicating that international action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions can reduce attendant impacts on viticulture and conservation.…”

“…The literature on indirect impacts of climate change on conservation is growing, including, for instance, the potential conservation impacts of human populations displaced by sea level rise (41). Indirect impacts of change in agriculture on ecosystems and their services has an important place in this growing body of research (15) Adaptation strategies are available to wine growers to maintain productivity and quality as well as to minimize freshwater withdrawals and terrestrial footprint (39). Integrated planning for production and conservation is emerging in several prominent wine-producing regions.…”

Specialty fruit production in the Pacific Northwest: adaptation strategies for a changing climate

“…In the USA, by the late twenty-first century, grape and wine production will likely be restricted to the Northwest and Northeast and a narrow West Coast region, assuming the IPCC's A2 greenhouse emission scenario (White et al 2006). Climate change, in this case, may actually be beneficial for Washington and Oregon, which will have less frost and greater potential for premium wine sites for at least the next 50-100 years (Diffenbaugh et al 2011). This comparative economic advantage, however, hinges on the premise that producers will have adequate water supplies.…”

The future potential for wine production in Scotland under high-end climate change

“…Current wine producing regions face the necessity of adapting to climate change because of the dependency of grape varieties on particular climatic conditions and the long-lived nature of vines (Diffenbaugh et al 2011;Metzger and Rounsevell, 2011;Webb et al 2010). One way of adapting to climate change would be the poleward movement of viticultural regions.…”