Climate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change

Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Müller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Folberth, Christian; Olin, Stefan; Schmid, Erwin; Arneth, Almut

doi:10.1038/ncomms12608

Cited by 107 publications

(87 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…The climate analog model was developed based on the literature pertaining to climate velocity, in which the locations with the best climatic match between one time period (e.g., future) and a different time period (e.g., contemporary) are considered climate analogs (Batllori et al, 2017;Hamann, Roberts, Barger, Carroll, & Nielsen, 2015;Wuebbles & Hayhoe, 2004). The climate analog model has been used to infer potential changes in crop yields and vegetation patterns under changing climate (Parks, Dobrowski, Shaw, & Miller, 2019;Pugh et al, 2016). Because climate variables, rather than species data, are used to describe potential ecosystem shifts, the climate analog model avoids many of the species-level assumptions inherent to SDMs or the "data-hungry" parameterization required by DGVMs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change likely to reshape vegetation in North America's largest protected areas

Holsinger

Parks

Parisien

et al. 2019

Conservat Sci and Prac

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Climate change poses a serious threat to biodiversity and unprecedented challenges to the preservation and protection of natural landscapes. We evaluated how climate change might affect vegetation in 22 of the largest and most iconic protected area (PA) complexes across North America. We use a climate analog model to estimate how dominant vegetation types might shift under mid-(2041-2070) and latecentury (2071-2100) climate according to the RCP 8.5 scenario. Maps depicting vegetation for each PA and time period are provided. Our analysis suggests that half (11 of 22) of the PAs may have substantially different vegetation by late-21stcentury compared with reference period conditions. The overall trend is toward vegetation associated with warmer or drier climates (or both), with near complete losses of alpine communities at the highest elevations and high latitudes. At low elevation and latitudes, vegetation communities associated with novel climate conditions may assemble in PAs. These potential shifts, contractions, and expansions in vegetation portray the possible trends across landscapes that are of great concern for conservation, as such changes imply cascading ecological responses for associated flora and fauna. Overall, our findings highlight the challenges managers may face to maintain and preserve biodiversity in key PAs across North America. K E Y W O R D Sclimate analogs, climate change, ecological change, protected areas, vegetation change

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change likely to reshape vegetation in North America's largest protected areas

Holsinger

Parks

Parisien

et al. 2019

Conservat Sci and Prac

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“…Environmental change will influence future agricultural productivity. Climate impacts have been shown to have both positive and negative impacts on yields depending on crop type and latitude; however, the net global effect of a warming climate on existing cropland is expected to be negative (Deryng, Sacks, Barford, & Ramankutty, ; Deryng et al., ; Liu et al., ; Pugh et al., ; Rosenzweig et al., ; Tebaldi & Lobell, ). Nonetheless, at higher latitudes, increasing temperatures have the potential to increase crop yields (Müller et al., ; Pugh et al., ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Climate impacts have been shown to have both positive and negative impacts on yields depending on crop type and latitude; however, the net global effect of a warming climate on existing cropland is expected to be negative (Deryng, Sacks, Barford, & Ramankutty, ; Deryng et al., ; Liu et al., ; Pugh et al., ; Rosenzweig et al., ; Tebaldi & Lobell, ). Nonetheless, at higher latitudes, increasing temperatures have the potential to increase crop yields (Müller et al., ; Pugh et al., ). Increased atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) are also widely expected to increase agricultural productivity, but the magnitude of such CO 2 fertilisation remains contested (Ainsworth, Leakey, Ort, & Long, ; Leakey et al., ; Long, Ainsworth, Leakey, Nösberger, & Ort, ; Osborne, ; van der Kooi, Reich, Löw, De Kok, & Tausz, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adaptation of global land use and management intensity to changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide

Alexander

Rabin

Anthoni

et al. 2018

Global Change Biology

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Land use contributes to environmental change, but is also influenced by such changes. Climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2) levels’ changes alter agricultural crop productivity, plant water requirements and irrigation water availability. The global food system needs to respond and adapt to these changes, for example, by altering agricultural practices, including the crop types or intensity of management, or shifting cultivated areas within and between countries. As impacts and associated adaptation responses are spatially specific, understanding the land use adaptation to environmental changes requires crop productivity representations that capture spatial variations. The impact of variation in management practices, including fertiliser and irrigation rates, also needs to be considered. To date, models of global land use have selected agricultural expansion or intensification levels using relatively aggregate spatial representations, typically at a regional level, that are not able to characterise the details of these spatially differentiated responses. Here, we show results from a novel global modelling approach using more detailed biophysically derived yield responses to inputs with greater spatial specificity than previously possible. The approach couples a dynamic global vegetative model (LPJ‐GUESS) with a new land use and food system model (PLUMv2), with results benchmarked against historical land use change from 1970. Land use outcomes to 2100 were explored, suggesting that increased intensity of climate forcing reduces the inputs required for food production, due to the fertilisation and enhanced water use efficiency effects of elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, but requiring substantial shifts in the global and local patterns of production. The results suggest that adaptation in the global agriculture and food system has substantial capacity to diminish the negative impacts and gain greater benefits from positive outcomes of climate change. Consequently, agricultural expansion and intensification may be lower than found in previous studies where spatial details and processes consideration were more constrained.

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“…It was also shown 1275 that the potential for major cereal crop production may decline in a future climate (Pugh et al, 2016b).…”

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confidence: 99%

LPJmL4 – a dynamic global vegetation model with managed land: Part I – Model description

Schaphoff¹,

Bloh²,

Rammig³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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Climate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change

Cited by 107 publications

References 33 publications

Climate change likely to reshape vegetation in North America's largest protected areas

Climate change likely to reshape vegetation in North America's largest protected areas

Adaptation of global land use and management intensity to changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide

LPJmL4 – a dynamic global vegetation model with managed land: Part I – Model description

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