Climate and Energy-Water-Land System Interactions Technical Report to the U.S. Department of Energy in Support of the National Climate Assessment

Abstract

Executive SummaryThis technical input report on climate and energy-water-land (EWL) system interactions has been prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy in support of the U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA). Prepared on an accelerated schedule to fit the NCA's timeline, it provides a summary of existing information and understanding of this broad topic.This report provides a framework to characterize and understand the important elements of climate and EWL system interactions. It identifies many of the important issues, discusses our understanding of those issues, and identifies the research needs to address the priority scientific challenges and gaps in our understanding. Much of the discussion is organized around two discrete case studies with the broad themes of (1) extreme events and (2) regional differences. These case studies help demonstrate unique ways in which energy-water-land interactions can occur and be influenced by climate. In addition, a series of "illustrations" portray representative decision-making considerations relevant to climate-EWL interfaces. Key findings from the report are summarized below, according to the report section in which they are found. Characterization of Climate and Energy-Water-Land System Interactions• Population growth and economic and social development are major drivers of the demand for energy, land, and water resources within the interdependent climate and EWL system. A major challenge will be to manage, and optimize where possible, competing economic and environmental objectives and priorities within resource budget constraints and impact risks of climate variability and change.• The interdependencies of climate and the EWL system can be characterized by the three bilateral interfaces of energy-water, energy-land, and land-water. Each bilateral interface consists of linkages representing the supplies, end-use demands, and associated functional relationships between the two.• Much of our current understanding of climate impacts on the complex interdependencies of the EWL system is derived from limited observations of bilateral interface responses to climate variability. The concept of EWL interfaces can help identify the relative degree of risks and vulnerabilities to the effects of climate variability and change. Energy-Water-Land Interfaces: Resource Interdependencies and Interactions with Climate• Focusing on sector-to-sector interfaces alone does not adequately capture the complexity and importance of the EWL system. The many bilateral interfaces form a dynamic set of interacting processes linked through a complex network of feedbacks.• Competition for water is the most straightforward conflict linking energy, water, and land (e.g., simultaneous demand for thermoelectric generation, irrigation, environmental flows).• Extreme climate events such as drought and associated heat waves have important impacts on the EWL interfaces. Impacts are seen as changes in cropping and grazing and accompanying wildfire damage. These changes tend to reinforce and intensify i...

Risk assessment of climate systems for national security.

“…16 That work, extended by the work reported here, then led to new considerations that were added to the 2013 National Climate Assessment (NCA), directed by the White House. The Sandia contribution (not part of this project) is noted in Wilbanks et al (2011) and Skaggs et al (2012). 17 Additionally, the international work described herein also led to Sandia being invited as an expert reviewer for the Working Group II Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report Climate Change 2013: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability 2013 of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the topics of: uncertainty quantification, quantified resilience, economic impacts, infrastructure, hydrology, adaptation, and emergent risks and for the regions of Arctic, North America, and Open Oceans.…”

A Uniform Practice for Conceptualizing and Communicating Food‐Energy‐Water Nexus Studies

“…• Industrial ecology: the distinction between natural resources and products (Matthews et al, 2000;Schandl et al, 2016;Weisz et al, 2015); • FEW-resource nexus: consideration of minerals and land as valuable natural resources within nexus discussions DOE, 2014); • Material flows: movements of materials in space as well as within different stages of production (Adriaanse et al, 1997;Rogich et al, 2008b;Wiedmann et al, 2015); • Technology: role of technology in linking interactions between natural resources, products, and waste streams (Skaggs et al, 2012); • LCA: material flows and contributing supply chains from generation to pollution (International Standard Organization, 2006); • System dynamics: considering impacts of component feedbacks on overall system (Karnopp et al, 1990); • Sustainability science: interactions between natural and social systems and how interactions influence overall system behavior over time (Komiyama & Takeuchi, 2006); • FEW-environment nexus: role of the environment and ecosystem services in providing quality natural resources (de Grenade et al, 2016;Rasul, 2014); • FEW-waste nexus: generation of waste in water and energy interactions as well as influence of waste on natural resources (Hülsmann & Ardakanian, 2013;Jacobson, 2009;Kurian & Ardakanian, 2016); • Circular economy: extending LCA to consider impacts and influences from pollution back to generation, including minimizing impacts through biopackaging and using waste as an input to the production process (Andersen, 2007;Witjes & Lozano, 2016; WWAP, 2017); • FEW society: consideration of social and policy dimensions of interactions (Albrecht et al, 2018); and • Socioecological-technological system: consideration of different actors (expectations and roles) within sectors (McGinnis & Ostrom, 2014).…”

Climate change impact assessments on the water resources of India under extensive human interventions

“…This is particularly relevant in the regions of high resource consumption (see Supplementary material and Fig. S6 for more on ELWC linkages) (Hoff 2011;Skaggs et al 2012;Howells et al 2013;Kraucunas et al 2014). Here, we examine the ELWC nexus in the context of India to explore the challenges in assessing the observed and projected impacts of climate change on water resources under extensive human interventions.…”