Climate and environmental changes driving idiosyncratic shifts in the distribution of tropical and temperate worm reefs

Abstract

An increasing number of studies have forecast the potential responses of marine life to future climate change. This study predicts how the distributional range of temperate and tropical worm reefs (WRs) might respond to climate and environmental changes (CECs). Compared with current distributions, the tested hypotheses were: (i) under a low CO2 concentration and active atmospheric carbon capturing scenario (RCP2.6), both tropical and temperate WRs will maintain their current distributions and face only slight multi-directional biogeographic changes along the century; and (ii) under a high CO2 concentration scenario (RCP8.5) WRs will shift toward higher latitudes, with marked changes for tropical species and slight changes for temperate species, specifically at the end of the 21st century. The hypotheses were tested using species distribution modelling, and exploratory statistical analyses were performed to tune model settings. Under scenario RCP2.6, in the middle of the century, areas of suitable habitat are predicted to slightly increase for the temperate WRs and conversely contract for tropical WRs. At the end of the century, multi-directional shifts without range retraction were predicted for both species, but tropical WRs showed major changes in their distribution. Under scenario RCP8.5 and throughout the century, multi-directional shifts increased the areas of suitable habitat for temperate WRs, whereas tropical WRs experienced shifts toward high latitudes and significant retraction at low latitudes. Results indicate that biogeographic range shifts are idiosyncratic for temperate and tropical WRs depending on the CECs scenarios considered.

Applying landscape metrics to species distribution model predictions to characterize internal range structure and associated changes

“…Boo et al, 2019; Lima et al, 2007), and only one study has focused on an ecosystem engineer (Faroni‐Perez, 2017). Our results confirm that both air and seawater temperatures are ultimate drivers of changes in sabellarid distribution (Faroni‐Perez, 2017; Firth et al, 2015; Firth, Harris, et al, 2021), thus confirming its status as an indicator of climate change in Britain and Ireland (Mieszkowska et al, 2006). However, patterns of change are predicted to differ between biogeographic regions owing to the effect of other local factors (Firth, Harris, et al, 2021).…”

“…The potential gain of an extensive area of suitable habitat, in Britain and Ireland, could alter community structure and ecosystem processes, with ensuing positive and negative impacts (Bulleri et al, 2018; Wallingford et al, 2020). It is also possible that species inhabiting S. alveolata reefs will exhibit range extensions by using the new areas of reef occurrence as “stepping stones”, with climate change facilitating the dispersion of the associated biota into new territories (Dubois et al, 2002; Faroni‐Perez, 2017), aided by proliferating sea defences as a societal adaptational response to rising and stormier seas driven by climate change (Bugnot et al, 2021; Firth et al, 2015). As a biogenic habitat forming species, it could also promote the diversity and resilience of benthic fauna by providing improved environmental conditions in the face of climate change through facilitation or habitat cascades (Bulleri et al, 2018; Gribben et al, 2019).…”

“…Despite the recognized ecological and economic value of ecosystem engineers in terms of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning (Ellison et al, 2005; Lemasson et al, 2017), to our knowledge, only a handful of studies have simultaneously considered terrestrial and marine environmental conditions to which coastal ecosystems are exposed (e.g. Boo et al, 2019; Lima et al, 2007), and only one study has focused on an ecosystem engineer (Faroni‐Perez, 2017). Our results confirm that both air and seawater temperatures are ultimate drivers of changes in sabellarid distribution (Faroni‐Perez, 2017; Firth et al, 2015; Firth, Harris, et al, 2021), thus confirming its status as an indicator of climate change in Britain and Ireland (Mieszkowska et al, 2006).…”

Ocean acidification affects calcareous tube growth in adult stage and reared offspring of serpulid polychaetes

“…Future implications under global climate change Ocean warming will shape the response to ocean acidification. It is predicted that tropical tube worms will shift distribution towards the poles with continued global climate change (Faroni-Perez, 2017). In the predictive model, which considered both warming and acidification, elevated temperature was the most influential driver of distributions, although Faroni-Perez (2017) points to the need for more information on the effects of ocean acidification on tube worms to inform models.…”