Climate and socio‐economic factors explain differences between observed and expected naturalization patterns of European plants around the world

Abstract

Aim The number of naturalized (i.e. established) alien species has increased rapidly over recent centuries. Given the differences in environmental tolerances among species, little is known about what factors determine the extent to which the observed size of the naturalized range of a species and hence the extent to which the observed richness of naturalized species of a region approach their full potential. Here, we asked which region‐ and species‐specific characteristics explain differences between observed and expected naturalizations. Location Global. Time period Present. Major taxa studied Vascular plants. Methods We determined the observed naturalized distribution outside Europe for 1,485 species endemic to Europe using the Global Naturalized Alien Flora (GloNAF) database and their expected distributions outside Europe using species distribution models. First, we investigated which of seven socio‐economic factors related to introduction pathways, anthropogenic pressures and inventory effort best explained the differences between observed and expected naturalized European floras. Second, we examined whether distributional features, economic use and functional traits explain the extent to which species have filled their expected ranges outside Europe. Results In terms of suitable area, more than 95% of expected naturalizations of European plants were not yet observed. Species were naturalized in only 4.2% of their suitable regions outside of Europe (range filling) and in 0.4% of their unsuitable regions (range expansion). Anthropogenic habitat disturbance primarily explained the difference between observed and expected naturalized European floras, as did the number of treaties relevant to invasive species. Species of ornamental and economic value and with large specific leaf area performed better at filling and expanding beyond their expected range. Main conclusions The naturalization of alien plant species is explained by climate matching but also by the regional level of human development, the introduction pressure associated with the ornamental and economic values of the species and their adaptation to disturbed environments.

Potential alien ranges of European plants will shrink in the future, but less so for already naturalized than for not yet naturalized species

“…A major pathway for the introduction of alien plants is their cultivation for ornamental and other economic value such as for animal fodder and medicines (van Kleunen et al, 2020). Indeed, we found that the percentage of ornamental (30.2%) and other economic plants (19.1%) among naturalized European endemics is much higher than among European endemics that have not yet become naturalized (4.3% and 2.4%, Pouteau, Thuiller, et al, 2021). Ongoing globalization will continue to result in species introductions, so it is likely that more of the currently non-naturalized species will be introduced elsewhere, and could naturalize.…”

Remember your roots: Biogeographic properties of plants' native habitats can inform invasive plant risk assessments

“…These results support the hypotheses that human contact, niche breadth, disturbance, resource availability and native plant richness are related to the successful establishment of plants outside of their native ranges. For example, proximity to human infrastructure increases the likelihood that a plant will be discovered and introduced to a new environment, thereby increasing the chance of establishment (Hulme, 2009; Pouteau et al, 2021). Similarly, species that can survive a wide range of abiotic conditions are more likely to successfully establish in a novel environment (Gallagher et al, 2015; Higgins & Richardson, 2014).…”

“…1. Human Contact: Since humans are the most important vectors for invasive species relocation (Hulme, 2009;Pouteau et al, 2021), any biogeographic property that represents the intensity of human presence in a given environment (e.g., the amount of developed land or the density of airports) could act as a proxy for the likelihood of transportation outside their native range.…”

“…We identified five main ways that biogeographic properties of the native range could affect the likelihood that a plant will establish elsewhere and/or become invasive elsewhere (Figure 1): Human Contact : Since humans are the most important vectors for invasive species relocation (Hulme, 2009; Pouteau et al, 2021), any biogeographic property that represents the intensity of human presence in a given environment (e.g., the amount of developed land or the density of airports) could act as a proxy for the likelihood of transportation outside their native range. Niche Breadth : Existing literature has shown that invasive species have broad abiotic niches. A broad abiotic niche suggests that invasive species have large physiological tolerances, which in turn allows for survival and colonization in numerous other environments (Gallagher et al, 2015; Higgins & Richardson, 2014).…”

The IMPB RAS is 50 years old. Laboratory of Computational Ecology: achievements and prospects

“…На основе глобальных данных в составе международных коллективов нами выполнен ряд обобщающих работ: уточнена Европейская классификация естественных местообитаний EUNIS [23]; проанализированы тренды изменений сроков наступления и длительности фенологических явлений в связи с глобальными изменениями климата [24,25]; проведен филогенетический анализ структуры лесной растительности в Европе [26]; проведен анализ факторов, объясняющих распространение европейских растений за пределы Европы [27]; обобщены данные на глобальном уровне о сообществах дождевых червей и построены модели их распространения [16,28].…”