Climate Benefit Assessment of Doubling the Extent of Windbreak Plantations in Hungary

Abstract

Agroforestry systems are recognized as sustainable land use practices that foster environmental health and promote adaptive responses to global change. By harnessing the synergies between trees and agricultural activities, agroforestry systems provide multiple benefits, including soil conservation, biodiversity enhancement, and carbon sequestration. Windbreaks form integral elements of Hungarian agricultural landscapes, and the enhanced agroforestry subsidy framework might have a favorable impact on their expansion, underscoring the importance of evaluating their potential for carbon sequestration. In the present study, we assess the implications of doubling the extent of windbreak plantations in Hungary by planting an additional 14,256 hectares of windbreaks. We evaluate the total carbon sequestration and the annual climate change mitigation potential of the new plantations up to 2050. For the modeling, we use the recently developed Windbreak module of the Forest Industry Carbon Model, which is a yield table-based model specific to Hungary and allows for the estimation of living biomass, dead organic matter, and soil carbon balance. We project that new windbreak plantations will sequester 913 kt C by 2050, representing an average annual climate change mitigation potential of 144 kt CO2 eq. Our findings reveal that doubling the extent of windbreak plantations could achieve an extra 5% carbon sequestration in forested areas as compared to business-as-usual (BAU) conditions. We conclude that new windbreak plantations on agricultural field boundaries have substantial climate change mitigation potential, underscoring agroforestry’s contribution to agricultural resilience and achieving Hungary’s climate goals set for the land-use (LULUCF) sector.