Climate Change

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“…2), the classification and quantification of suitable habitat provides substantial insights on the vulnerability of this species to climate change. In fact, our results indicate that the net effect of climate change on guanaco habitats will result in a reduction of its geographic distribution and, most importantly, to a confinement to sub-optimal quality habitats (Table 1) supporting general trends outlined in the literature (Urban, 2010;Pecl et al, 2017). In fact, our quantification of surface changes between current and future distribution under the worst-case scenario, suggests an average loss of 26% of its current area, compared to 15% of areal gains (i.e.…”

“…In fact, our quantification of surface changes between current and future distribution under the worst-case scenario, suggests an average loss of 26% of its current area, compared to 15% of areal gains (i.e. new distribution areas available) between 2050 and 2070 (Table 2) supporting claims describing how climate change will modify species ranges, decrease abundances, and increase exposure to local and global extinction (Lenoir et al, 2008;Urban, 2010;Pecl et al, 2017).…”

“…RCP8.5) in 2070 and ENMTools v.1.4.3 (Warren, Glor & Turelli, 2010). As proposed in Warren et al (Warren, Glor & Turelli, 2008, 2010, niche overlap between lineages was calculated with the statistical indices "I" (derivative of Hellinger's distance) and "D" (Shöener's D). These indices quantitatively assess whether the niche space for two compared lineages are equivalent by comparing the actual niche to a null niche model generated from a randomized pool of locations for each lineage.…”

“…As climate change progress, organisms will either have to face extinctions or adapt (Berg et al, 2010) by altering their seasonal activities, home ranges, migratory patterns, abundances, and interspecific interactions (Lenoir et al, 2008;Araújo, Thuiller & Yoccoz, 2009;Elith & Leathwick, 2009;Pecl et al, 2017). While many of these changes have already been observed (IPCC, 2013;Pecl et al, 2017), recent meta-analyses indicate that the global rise of temperatures will likely accelerate extinction risks and threaten up to one in every six species (Urban, 2010). Studies on the impact of climate change on ungulates have shown that changes in distribution ranges include altitudinal shifts in mountain environments (Mason et al, 2014) and distributional shifts towards equivalent habitats (Hu & Jiang, 2011).…”

Peer Review #1 of "Change of niche in guanaco (Lama guanicoe): the effects of climate change on habitat suitability and lineage conservatism in Chile (v0.2)"

“…Organisms will either have to face extinctions or adapt (Berg et al, 2010) by altering their seasonal activities, home ranges, migratory patterns, abundances, and interspecific interactions (Lenoir et al, 2008;Araújo, Thuiller & Yoccoz, 2009;Elith & Leathwick, 2009;Pecl et al, 2017). Global rise of temperatures will likely accelerate extinction risks and threaten up to one in every six species (Urban, 2010). Studies on the impact of climate change on ungulates have shown that changes in distribution ranges include altitudinal shifts in mountain environments (Mason et al, 2014) and distributional shifts towards equivalent habitats (Hu & Jiang, 2011).…”