Climate change and adaptation of mountain societies in Central Asia: uncertainties, knowledge gaps, and data constraints

Xenarios, Stefanos; Gafurov, Abror; Schmidt‐Vogt, Dietrich; Sehring, Jenniver; Manandhar, Sujata; Hergarten, Christian; Shigaeva, Jyldyz; Foggin, J. Marc

doi:10.1007/s10113-018-1384-9

Cited by 78 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…Biophysical consequences of altered climate regimes are likely to include melting glaciers, changes in the seasonality of river-runoff regimes inducing seasonal water shortages, or altered vegetation patterns [7][8][9][10]. This may affect the livelihood of mountain communities who are mainly living on livestock-keeping and agriculture, and where natural resources are already limited [11]. In addition to climatic challenges, historical events have led to the fact that Central Asian countries are still confronted with political instability, poverty, or insufficient infrastructure [7,12,13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Central Asia’s Changing Climate: How Temperature and Precipitation Have Changed across Time, Space, and Altitude

Haag

Jones

Samimi

2019

Climate

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Changes in climate can be favorable as well as detrimental for natural and anthropogenic systems. Temperatures in Central Asia have risen significantly within the last decades whereas mean precipitation remains almost unchanged. However, climatic trends can vary greatly between different subregions, across altitudinal levels, and within seasons. Investigating in the seasonally and spatially differentiated trend characteristics amplifies the knowledge of regional climate change and fosters the understanding of potential impacts on social, ecological, and natural systems. Considering the known limitations of available climate data in this region, this study combines both high-resolution and long-term records to achieve the best possible results. Temperature and precipitation data were analyzed using Climatic Research Unit (CRU) TS 4.01 and NASA’s Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B43. To study long-term trends and low-frequency variations, we performed a linear trend analysis and compiled anomaly time series and regional grid-based trend maps. The results show a strong increase in temperature, almost uniform across the topographically complex study site, with particular maxima in winter and spring. Precipitation depicts minor positive trends, except for spring when precipitation is decreasing. Expected differences in the development of temperature and precipitation between mountain areas and plains could not be detected.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Central Asia’s Changing Climate: How Temperature and Precipitation Have Changed across Time, Space, and Altitude

Haag

Jones

Samimi

2019

Climate

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“…Cryospheric change has increased water shortages as well as the frequency and intensity of hazards and risks that adversely affect socio-ecological systems far beyond the mountainous region (Milner et al, 2017). The people living in high mountain areas, particularly in developing countries, are vulnerable owing to their physical environment and underlying economic, social and political situations (Xenarios et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adaptation to mountain cryosphere change: issues and challenges

Rasul

Pasakhala

Mishra

et al. 2019

Climate and Development

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The cryosphere provides multiple services to society, but mountain cryosphere is shrinking at an alarming rate worldwide due to climate change, threatening natural and human systems. Adaptation to cryosphere change is essential to avoid irreversible damage and to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Although documenting adaptation actions and challenges is vital for preparing and implementing adaptation strategies, efforts to document and understand current adaptation practices specifically in response to cryosphere change have been limited. This paper synthesizes adaptation actions currently practiced in the mountain ranges of the Andes, Alps, Pamir, Tien Shan and Himalaya in response to cryosphere change, discusses common constraints and suggests actions for creating an enabling environment for adaptation. It identifies various adaptation measures adopted by different actors. These range from changing current practices and behaviour at household level to collaborative monitoring at regional level. However, most adaptation measures are autonomous, narrowly focused and short term, without adequate planning and government support. The physical challenges of mountain terrain, low adaptive capacities, limited knowledge and high uncertainty about future risks constrain widespread adoption of adaptation measures. Further research is needed to better understand factors influencing adaptation actions, and the policy options and responses that can overcome existing barriers.

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“…There are counterarguments, however, mentioning that the irrigated land with pumping stations mostly belongs to wealthy farmers, while the poorer communities cultivate marginal and rainfed plots (Xenarios et al, 2019). Also, it is questionable whether the preservation of all the pumping facilities could even support a sustainable agricultural sector.…”

Section: Recommendations and Concluding Remarksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Agricultural water and energy management in Tajikistan: a new opportunity

Xenarios

Laldjebaev²,

Shenhav

2019

International Journal of Water Resources Development

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Agricultural water use in Tajikistan is largely based on mechanized irrigation pumps. The farming community cannot afford the cost of the energy used for pumping, resulting in large debts to the service provider. We propose limiting pumping facilities for five years in exchange for energy export to neighbouring countries. The energy export could cover the annual pumping expenditures, pay off agricultural debt and partly rehabilitate the irrigation network. We suggest three scenarios with different pumping energy reductions, and the relevant technical parameters of the set-aside scheme are assessed.

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Climate change and adaptation of mountain societies in Central Asia: uncertainties, knowledge gaps, and data constraints

Cited by 78 publications

References 63 publications

Central Asia’s Changing Climate: How Temperature and Precipitation Have Changed across Time, Space, and Altitude

Central Asia’s Changing Climate: How Temperature and Precipitation Have Changed across Time, Space, and Altitude

Adaptation to mountain cryosphere change: issues and challenges

Agricultural water and energy management in Tajikistan: a new opportunity

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