Climate change and breeding success: decline of the capercaillie in Scotland

Moss, Robert L.; Oswald, James; Baines, David

doi:10.1046/j.1365-2656.2001.00473.x

Cited by 106 publications

(94 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…For example, consider that many upland birds are restricted in geographical range to places with cool, wet climates [73]. While these species may struggle in a warm, dry climate, many of them show higher breeding success and better survival in warm, dry years than in the typical conditions they usually experience [74][75][76]. Clearly, demographic models would predict a more widespread population than their preferred upland habitats, suggesting that while warm, dry weather may be good, a warm, dry climate would not.…”

Section: Demographic Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling

Beale

Lennon

2012

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

255

232

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Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and processbased models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.

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Section: Demographic Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling

Beale

Lennon

2012

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

255

232

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“…Many potential examples of rapid change in phenotype related to climate have been reported recently (e.g. Winkel & Hudde, 1997;Brown et al, 1999;Crick et al, 1999;Dunn & Winkler, 1999;Saether et al, 2000;Moss et al, 2001). However, it remains unclear whether these changes are phenotypic or micro-evolutionary in nature.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rapid evolutionary change in a secondary sexual character linked to climatic change

Møller¹,

Szép²

2004

J of Evolutionary Biology

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The ability of organisms to respond evolutionarily to rapid climatic change is poorly known. Secondary sexual characters show the potential for rapid evolutionary change, as evidenced by strong divergence among species and high evolvability. Here we show that the length of the outermost tail feathers of males of the socially monogamous barn swallow Hirundo rustica, feathers that provide a mating advantage to males, has increased by more than 1 standard deviation during the period from 1984 to 2003. Barn swallows from the Danish population studied here migrate through the Iberian Peninsula to South Africa in fall, and return along the same route in spring. Environmental conditions on the spring staging grounds in Algeria, as indexed by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, predicted tail length and change in tail length across generations. However, conditions in the winter quarters and at the breeding grounds did not predict change in tail length. Environmental conditions in Algeria in spring showed a temporal deterioration during the study period, associated with a reduction in annual survival rate of male barn swallows. Phenotypic plasticity in tail length of males, estimated as the increase in tail length from the age of 1 to 2 years, decreased during the course of the study. Estimates of directional selection differentials for male tail length with respect to mating success, breeding date, fecundity, survival and total selection showed temporal variation, with the intensity of breeding date selection, survival selection and total selection declining during the study. Response to selection as estimated from the product of heritability and total selection was very similar to the observed temporal change in tail length. These findings provide evidence of rapid micro‐evolutionary change in a secondary sexual character during a very short time period, which is associated with a rapid change in environmental conditions.

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“…Una progressiva alterazione della struttura degli habitat, l'eccessivo disturbo antropico e, forse, un aumento della predazione hanno reso oggi la maggior parte delle foreste di pianura centroeuropee inadatte alla specie, eccezion fatta per le regioni più remote: nella parte meridionale ed occidentale del suo areale distributivo, il Gallo cedrone è quasi esclusivamente confinato alle fasce superiori dei versanti montani forestali, dai circa 600 m di quota nel Giura (Francia e Svizzera), ai 1000-1500 m sulle Alpi, 1200-1600 m sui Monti Cantabrici e 1700-2000 m sui Pirenei (Storch 2001). Per quanto concerne le principali minacce alla conservazione, va sottolineato come un discreto numero di differenti fattori sia stato indicato come significativo nel contribuire al recente declino numerico della specie: tra questi, oltre quelli sopraccitati, vanno ricordati anche il cambiamento climatico (Marti & Picozzi 1997, Moss et al 2001) e il prelievo venatorio legale -oggi generalmente impossibile nella maggior parte dei paesi europei centro-occidentali per le relative disposizioni normative -ed illegale (Brichetti 1985, Del Hoyo et al 1994, Calvario et al 1999. Con tutta probabilità le cause agiscono in ogni caso sinergicamente e hanno un diverso peso relativo in aree differenti.…”

Section: La Conservazione Del Gallo Cedroneunclassified

Forest as Capercaillie’s habitat: applied research efforts and new management experiences

Brugnoli¹,

Brugnoli²

2006

Forest@

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Abstract:Forest as Capercaillie's habitat: applied research efforts and new management experiences. Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus L.) is considered as an indicator species for naturally open coniferous forests, with high proportions of old and open stands. At present, Capercaillie conservation status is threatened in all its central European distribution range: the species has narrow habitat preferences and large spatial requirements and it is particularly susceptible to changes in landscape and habitat use. Forestry practices are commonly considered as the major factor influencing Capercaillie's population dynamics, though direct human disturbance is another threat of considerable impact. Increasing loss and fragmentation of suitable habitats have resulted in small populations with different levels of connectivity, up to complete isolation. Preservation, restoration and improvement of the habitat are the most important conservation measures to ensure the long-term survival of Capercaillie populations. Integrating silvicultural practices with specific environmental requirements of this forest grouse is therefore of crucial importance. Some results of recent research and conservation efforts carried out in central-eastern Alpine Arc of Switzerland and Italy are presented here, based on different research approaches. Preliminary experiences of management guidelines applied to conservation strategy of such a symbolic species are also commented. A conservation strategy recently developed by Regione Lombardia is discussed. Secondly, two studies developed in the frame of a research project concerning "A metapopulation model of Capercaillie in the Swiss Alps" are presented, referring to different spatial scale (forest stand and landscape). A specific Action Plan at Swiss national level will be developed based on the main results of this project. Finally implementation of Special Forest Reserves is described, as a possible long-term tool for protecting and conserving Capercaillie populations.Keywords: Gallo cedrone, Gestione forestale, Selvicoltura, Conservazione degli habitat, Riserva speciale forestale.

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Climate change and breeding success: decline of the capercaillie in Scotland

Cited by 106 publications

References 24 publications

Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling

Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling

Rapid evolutionary change in a secondary sexual character linked to climatic change

Forest as Capercaillie’s habitat: applied research efforts and new management experiences

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