Climate Change and Cascading Risks from Infectious Disease

Abstract

Climate change is adversely affecting the burden of infectious disease throughout the world, which is a health security threat. Climate-sensitive infectious disease includes vector-borne diseases such as malaria, whose transmission potential is expected to increase because of enhanced climatic suitability for the mosquito vector in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and South America. Climatic suitability for the mosquitoes that can carry dengue, Zika, and chikungunya is also likely to increase, facilitating further increases in the geographic range and longer transmission seasons, and raising concern for expansion of these diseases into temperate zones, particularly under higher greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Early spring temperatures in 2018 seem to have contributed to the early onset and extensive West Nile virus outbreak in Europe, a pathogen expected to expand further beyond its current distribution, due to a warming climate. As for tick-borne diseases, climate change is projected to continue to contribute to the spread of Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis, particularly in North America and Europe. Schistosomiasis is a waterborne disease and public health concern in Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia; climate change is anticipated to change its distribution, with both expansions and contractions expected. Other water-borne diseases that cause diarrheal diseases have declined significantly over the last decades owing to socioeconomic development and public health measures but changes in climate can reverse some of these positive developments. Weather and climate events, population movement, land use changes, urbanization, global trade, and other drivers can catalyze a succession of secondary events that can lead to a range of health impacts, including infectious disease outbreaks. These cascading risk pathways of causally connected events can result in large-scale outbreaks and affect society at large.

West Nile Virus diffusion in temperate regions and climate change. A systematic review

“…Altered rainfall, flooding and an increased likelihood of extreme weather events are commonly observed and contribute to the expansion of the geographic range and favor the replication of certain vectors. All these events support the potential increase and spread of a range of arboviral threats including WNV [43,44].…”

Ten new insights in climate science 2022

“…Changes in the geographic range and survival of mosquitoes and ticks that can transmit a wide range of pathogens that cause vector-borne diseases have also been observed. Weather and climate events, population movement, land-use changes, urbanization, global trade and other drivers can catalyse a succession of secondary events that can lead to a range of health impacts, including infectious disease outbreaks (Semenza et al, 2022). These cascading pathways can result in large-scale outbreaks and affect society at large.…”

Autochthonous dengue in mainland France, 2022: geographical extension and incidence increase

“…The drivers of arbovirus transmission are undoubtedly multiple but are mainly influenced by the interactions between vector populations, virus strains and the global environment [ 13 ]. Environmental conditions thus have a major impact on the efficiency of the vector system as well as on vector density and host–vector contacts [ 14 , 15 ]. Spring and summer have been especially warm in 2022 [ 16 ], which promoted vector activity and transmission efficacy of dengue virus [ 17 ].…”