Climate Change and Conservation Strategies for the Anhui Musk Deer: Habitat Suitability and Climate Refuges in the Dabie Mountains

Abstract

Context Over the past several centuries, musk deer have faced severe population decline pressures due to poaching and habitat loss. With the intensification of climate change and human disturbance, the Anhui musk deer (AMD), which is restricted to the densely populated Eastern China region, faces an extremely high risk of extinction. Since the beginning of the century, researchers have been collecting presence data on the AM and developing habitat conservation plans, which may provide insights into the conservation of endangered species facing high levels of human disturbance. Objectives This study aims to evaluate the vulnerability of AMD habitats to climate change from the present to the 2090s, determine climate refugia that could support the AMD population amidst climatic shifts, and identify corridors that would enable individual movement among habitat patches in the context of climate change. Methods We collected occurrence locations (N = 101) of AMD by large-scale infrared camera monitoring data from 2013–2023, we used MaxEnt to predict suitable habitat and assess the potential impacts of climate change on the habitat. We then identified the potential ecological corridors between core habitat patches through connectivity analysis. Results The AMD is highly sensitive to temperature and human disturbance. The current suitable habitat, covering 1,188.90 km2, is mainly located within Anhui Province, with a high degree of suitable habitat fragmentation. Future projections suggest a continuous decline in suitable habitat, with areas decreasing to 1,052.45 km2 by the 2050s, 841.82 km2 by the 2070s, and 798.35 km2 by the 2090s. Currently, nature reserves cover only 38.52% of the existing suitable habitat, while identified climate refuges for the AMD span 586.24 km2, of which 44.38% remain unprotected. Moreover, we have identified 14 potential ecological corridors, which connect isolated populations with core populations should be prioritized for construction in response to climate change to protect the AMD population from its adverse effects. Conclusions Our findings show that habitat area of AMD will continue to decline under future climate conditions, and current conservation efforts are insufficient. The remaining AMD populations in the Dabie Mountains should be considered as regional populations and managed meticulously to ensure their long-term survival under conditions of human disturbance and climate warming.