Climate change and extension of the <i>Ginkgo biloba</i> L. growing season in Japan

Matsumoto, Kazuho; Ohta, Takeshi; Irasawa, Michiya; Nakamura, Tsutomu

doi:10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00688.x

Cited by 176 publications

(128 citation statements)

References 27 publications

(39 reference statements)

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“…Many other investigations have previously used these data to document how spring and autumn phenological events and growing season length have changed over time (Kai et al 1996;Chen 2003;Matsumoto et al 2003;Ho et al 2006;Doi 2007Doi , 2008Doi & Takahashi 2008;. However, none of these studies has attempted to use these results to forecast future changes in phenology and their likely impacts as we do here.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Forecasting phenology under global warming

Ibáñez

Primack

Miller‐Rushing

et al. 2010

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

247

146

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As a consequence of warming temperatures around the world, spring and autumn phenologies have been shifting, with corresponding changes in the length of the growing season. Our understanding of the spatial and interspecific variation of these changes, however, is limited. Not all species are responding similarly, and there is significant spatial variation in responses even within species. This spatial and interspecific variation complicates efforts to predict phenological responses to ongoing climate change, but must be incorporated in order to build reliable forecasts. Here, we use a long-term dataset (1953 -2005) of plant phenological events in spring (flowering and leaf out) and autumn (leaf colouring and leaf fall) throughout Japan and South Korea to build forecasts that account for these sources of variability. Specifically, we used hierarchical models to incorporate the spatial variability in phenological responses to temperature to then forecast species' overall and site-specific responses to global warming. We found that for most species, spring phenology is advancing and autumn phenology is getting later, with the timing of events changing more quickly in autumn compared with the spring. Temporal trends and phenological responses to temperature in East Asia contrasted with results from comparable studies in Europe, where spring events are changing more rapidly than are autumn events. Our results emphasize the need to study multiple species at many sites to understand and forecast regional changes in phenology.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Forecasting phenology under global warming

Ibáñez

Primack

Miller‐Rushing

et al. 2010

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

247

146

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…It affects both physical and biological systems in an array of ways, dealing with crop productivity (Myneni et al 1997;Chmielewski et al 2004;Peng et al 2004;ACIA 2004), viniculture (Nemani et al 2001;Jones et al 2005), forestry Matsumoto et al 2003), animals (Crick and Sparks 1999;Roy and Sparks 2000;Cotton 2003), and hydrological cycle Groisman et al 2004;Yang et al 2002;Barnett et al 2005). In addition, GSL also influences the carbon storage of the earth system (Goulden et al 1996;Keeling et al 1996).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multidecadal variability in local growing season during 1901–2009

Xia

Zeng

2012

Clim Dyn

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Global warming exerts a lengthening effect on the growing season, with observational evidences emerging from different regions over the world. However, the difficulty for a global overview of this effect for the last century arises from limited availability of the long-term daily observations. In this study, we find a good linear relationship between the start (end) date of local growing season (LGS) and the monthly mean temperature in April (October) using the global gridded daily temperature dataset for 1960-1999. Using homogenized daily temperature records from nine stations where the time series go back to the beginning of the twentieth century, we find that the rate of change in the start (end) date of the LGS for per degree warming in April (October) mean temperature keeps nearly constant throughout the time. This enables us to study LGS changes during the last century using global gridded monthly mean temperature data. The results show that during the period 1901-2009, averaged over the observation areas, the LGS length has increased by a rate of 0.89 days decade -1 , mainly due to an earlier start (-0.58 days decade -1 ). This is smaller than those estimates for the late half of the twentieth century, because of multidecadal climate variability (MDV). A MDV component of the LGS index series is extracted by using Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method. The MDV exhibits significant positive correlation with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) over most of the Northern Hemisphere lands, but negative in parts of North America and Western Asia for start date of LGS. These are explained by analyzing differences in atmospheric circulation expressed by sea level pressure departures between the warm and cool phases of AMO. It is suggested that MDV in association with AMO accelerates the lengthening of LGS in Northern Hemisphere by 53 % for the period 1980-2009.

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“…In the examined multi-annual period, the end of harvesting was delayed by 2 days /10 years. The proved later course of some dates can be found in the research conducted in Spain, Japan and China (Gordo & Sanz, 2009;Matsumoto, 2010;Matsumoto et al, 2003;Tao et al, 2006). The degree of the observed delay was within a range of from 3.6 to as much as 21 days /10 years.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 60%