Climate Change and Forests of the Future: Managing in the Face of Uncertainty

Abstract

Abstract. We offer a conceptual framework for managing forested ecosystems under an assumption that future environments will be different from present but that we cannot be certain about the specifics of change. We encourage flexible approaches that promote reversible and incremental steps, and that favor ongoing learning and capacity to modify direction as situations change. We suggest that no single solution fits all future challenges, especially in the context of changing climates, and that the best strategy is to mix different approaches for different situations. Resources managers will be challenged to integrate adaptation strategies (actions that help ecosystems accommodate changes adaptively) and mitigation strategies (actions that enable ecosystems to reduce anthropogenic influences on global climate) into overall plans. Adaptive strategies include resistance options (forestall impacts and protect highly valued resources), resilience options (improve the capacity of ecosystems to return to desired conditions after disturbance), and response options (facilitate transition of ecosystems from current to new conditions). Mitigation strategies include options to sequester carbon and reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions. Priority-setting approaches (e.g., triage), appropriate for rapidly changing conditions and for situations where needs are greater than available capacity to respond, will become increasingly important in the future.

Climate change adaptation and sustainable regional development: a case study for the Federal State of Brandenburg, Germany

“…In general, a forest which offers a variety of different management options for the future in terms of tree species, structure, intervention measures and which is integrated in a landscape management framework will more likely be a resilient/stable and less vulnerable forest (Bodin and Wiman 2007;Millar et al 2007). Furthermore, such forests provide multiple goods and services as increasingly valued by society (Bengston 1994).…”

Silvicultural strategies for adapting planted forests to climate change: from theory to practice

“…The challenges posed by climate change require solutions that may be outside the scope of institutional experience and have led to proposals that future forest management should be based upon principles of "adaptive management" involving a cycle of planning, implementation, monitoring, and evaluation (Lawrence, Gillett 2011). Other authors have proposed a framework of adaptation concepts with supporting actions that should allow managers to manipulate forests to enhance their resistance and resilience to climate change (Spittlehouse, Stewart 2003;Millar et al 2007). Such actions can be seen as part of a risk management strategy linked to the principles of sustainable forest management.…”

Environmental change: prospects for conservation and agriculture in a southwest Australia biodiversity hotspot

“…One vitally important principle is to maintain maximum adaptive capacity in the system and flexibility in management (Millar et al 2007). There are a number of other general principles developed for adaptation to climate change (see, for example, Hannah et al 2002, Mawdsley et al 2009, West et al 2009).…”

“…Maintain maximum adaptive capacity in biological systems and be prepared for surprise and threshold effects (Millar et al 2007) • Establish thresholds of potential concern (Biggs and Rogers 2003).…”