Climate change and malaria transmission

Lindsay, Steve W.; Birley, Martin

doi:10.1080/00034983.1996.11813087

Cited by 244 publications

(170 citation statements)

References 34 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

159

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Several mechanisms have been hypothesized, including (i) increased travel from the malaria-endemic Lake Victoria basin to the highlands (20)(21)(22); (ii) degradation of the healthcare infrastructure (9-11); (iii) antimalarial drug resistance (22)(23)(24); (iv) local malaria transmission in the highlands as a consequence of land-use changes (9,11,25); and (v) global warming (8,26,27). Malakooti et al (10) analyzed the hospital clinical records and questionnaire survey results in a highland tea plantation estate in Kericho (Ϸ1,700 m above sea level), western Kenya, and concluded that the increased travel and healthcare infrastructure degradation should not be the key factors for the reemergence of highland malaria.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Association between climate variability and malaria epidemics in the East African highlands

Zhou

Minakawa

Githeko

et al. 2004

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

413

367

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The causes of the recent reemergence of Plasmodium falciparum epidemic malaria in the East African highlands are controversial. Regional climate changes have been invoked as a major factor; however, assessing the impact of climate in malaria resurgence is difficult due to high spatial and temporal climate variability and the lack of long-term data series on malaria cases from different sites. Climate variability, defined as short-term fluctuations around the mean climate state, may be epidemiologically more relevant than mean temperature change, but its effects on malaria epidemics have not been rigorously examined. Here we used nonlinear mixed-regression model to investigate the association between autoregression (number of malaria outpatients during the previous time period), seasonality and climate variability, and the number of monthly malaria outpatients of the past 10–20 years in seven highland sites in East Africa. The model explained 65–81% of the variance in the number of monthly malaria outpatients. Nonlinear and synergistic effects of temperature and rainfall on the number of malaria outpatients were found in all seven sites. The net variance in the number of monthly malaria outpatients caused by autoregression and seasonality varied among sites and ranged from 18 to 63% (mean = 38.6%), whereas 12–63% (mean = 36.1%) of variance is attributed to climate variability. Our results suggest that there was a high spatial variation in the sensitivity of malaria outpatient number to climate fluctuations in the highlands, and that climate variability played an important role in initiating malaria epidemics in the East African highlands

show abstract

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Association between climate variability and malaria epidemics in the East African highlands

Zhou

Minakawa

Githeko

et al. 2004

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

413

367

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Much of the recent speculation on the possible effects of climate change on mosquito-borne disease has focused on rudimentary concepts of their transmission dynamics (30,(46)(47)(48). An example is vectorial capacity, a convenient way of expressing transmission risk:…”

Section: Predicting the Impact Of Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and mosquito-borne disease.

Reiter

2001

Environ Health Perspect

540

386

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Global atmospheric temperatures are presently in a warming phase that began 250--300 years ago. Speculations on the potential impact of continued warming on human health often focus on mosquito-borne diseases. Elementary models suggest that higher global temperatures will enhance their transmission rates and extend their geographic ranges. However, the histories of three such diseases--malaria, yellow fever, and dengue--reveal that climate has rarely been the principal determinant of their prevalence or range; human activities and their impact on local ecology have generally been much more significant. It is therefore inappropriate to use climate-based models to predict future prevalence.

show abstract

“…Studies suggest that the removal of forests can increase sunlight, air temperature, and water temperature (Minakawa et al, 1999;Lindblade et al, 2000;Zhou, et al, 2004). Combined with precipitation, these changes induced by the removal of forests can increase the spatial distribution of larval habitats and mosquito populations, consequently triggering major malaria outbreaks (Lindsay and Birley, 1996;Githeko et al, 2000).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%