Climate-change and mass mortality events in overwintering monarch butterflies

Barve, Narayani; Bonilla, Alvin J.; Brandes, Julia; Brown, John C.; Brunsell, Nathaniel A.; Cochran, Ferdouz V.; Crosthwait, Rebecca J.; Gentry, Jodi; Gerhart, Laci; Jackson, Trish; Kern, Anna J.; Oberhauser, Karen S.; Owens, Hannah L.; Peterson, A. Townsend; Reed, A. Scott; Soberón, Jorge; Sundberg, Adam; Williams, Linda M.

doi:10.7550/rmb.26460

Cited by 16 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…In addition, more frequent rainfall events followed by freezing conditions can result in severe negative impacts on monarchs, such as in March 2016 (Brower et al ., ). Analysis of storm frequency in Mexico to date suggests that although negative effects are likely, they are not precipitous, frequent, or rapid enough to account for the sustained decline in monarchs (Barve et al ., ; Zalucki et al ., ). However, the low numbers of the current populations could make the impacts of such storms more threatening, if storms result in the population reaching an unviable size (Semmens et al ., ).…”

Section: Overwintering Survivalmentioning

confidence: 97%

Monarchs in decline: a collateral landscape‐level effect of modern agriculture

et al. 2016

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We review the postulated threatening processes that may have affected the decline in the eastern population of the monarch butterfly, Danaus plexippus L. (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae), in North America. Although there are likely multiple contributing factors, such as climate and resource-related effects on breeding, migrating, and overwintering populations, the key landscape-level change appears to be associated with the widespread use of genetically modified herbicide resistant crops that have rapidly come to dominate the extensive core summer breeding range. We dismiss misinterpretations of the apparent lack of population change in summer adult count data as logically flawed. Glyphosate-tolerant soybean and maize have enabled the extensive use of this herbicide, generating widespread losses of milkweed (Asclepias spp.), the only host plants for monarch larvae. Modeling studies that simulate lifetime realized fecundity at a landscape scale, direct counts of milkweeds, and extensive citizen science data across the breeding range suggest that a herbicide-induced, landscape-level reduction in milkweed has precipitated the decline in monarchs. A recovery will likely require a monumental effort for the re-establishment of milkweed resources at a commensurate landscape scale.

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Section: Overwintering Survivalmentioning

confidence: 97%

Monarchs in decline: a collateral landscape‐level effect of modern agriculture

et al. 2016

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“…() documented both lethal and sublethal effects of extreme temperatures on larvae. Additionally, an increase in extreme weather events (with lethal conditions for monarch survival) due to climate change has been suggested as a significant factor affecting the future viability of present‐day overwintering sites in central Mexico (Barve et al ., ). Therefore, climate is an important driver of annual fluctuations in monarch population dynamics, albeit a complex factor, given the geographical extent of their migratory range.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating confidence in climate‐based predictions of population change in a migratory species

Saunders

Ries

Oberhauser

et al. 2016

Global Ecol. Biogeogr.

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Aim Forecasting ecological responses to climate change is a common objective, but there are few methods for evaluating confidence in such predictions. For migratory species, in particular, it is also essential to consider the extent of spatial synchrony among separate breeding populations in range-wide predictions. We develop a quantitative method to evaluate the accuracy of climate-based ecological predictions and use this approach to assess the extent of spatio-temporal synchrony among distinct regions within the breeding range of a single migratory population.Location We model weekly site-specific summer abundances (1996-2011) of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) in the Midwestern USA as a function of climate conditions experienced during a shared spring migration/breeding phase in Texas and separate summer recruitment periods in Ohio and Illinois.Methods Using negative binomial regression models, we evaluate spatiotemporal synchrony between monarchs in the two states and develop a novel quantitative assessment approach to determine the temporal predictive strength of our model with Bayesian P-values. ResultsMonarchs breeding in the Midwest exhibit spatio-temporal synchrony in Ohio and Illinois; cooler spring temperatures, average to above average precipitation in Texas and cooler than average summer temperatures are associated with higher population abundances in both states. At least 10 years of data are needed for adequate model predictability of average future counts. Because annual spring weather conditions in Texas primarily drive yearly abundances, as opposed to localized summer effects, year-specific counts are often difficult to predict reliably, specifically when predictive spring conditions are outside the range of typical regional conditions. Main conclusions Our assessment method can be used in similar analyses to more confidently interpret ecological responses to climate change. Our results demonstrate the relative importance of climatic drivers in predicting abundances of a migratory species and the difficulties in producing reliable predictions of animal populations in the face of climate change.

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“…These correlative predictive models combine known geographic locations of a given species with underlying environmental data to identify suitable sites for given species and then map this information to predict the species geographic distribution. The ecological niche models have been used in a wide range of applications such as in locating rare and threatened species and habitats [13,14], rationalizing choice of habitat for species re-introduction [15], predicting the spread of invasive species [9], predicting the spread of crop pests [16] and in estimating the response of species to global climate change [17]. …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Do Ecological Niche Model Predictions Reflect the Adaptive Landscape of Species?: A Test Using Myristica malabarica Lam., an Endemic Tree in the Western Ghats, India

et al. 2013

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Ecological niche models (ENM) have become a popular tool to define and predict the “ecological niche” of a species. An implicit assumption of the ENMs is that the predicted ecological niche of a species actually reflects the adaptive landscape of the species. Thus in sites predicted to be highly suitable, species would have maximum fitness compared to in sites predicted to be poorly suitable. As yet there are very few attempts to address this assumption. Here we evaluate this assumption. We used Bioclim (DIVA GIS version 7.3) and Maxent (version 3.3.2) to predict the habitat suitability of Myristica malabarica Lam., an economically important tree occurring in the Western Ghats, India. We located populations of the trees naturally occurring in different habitat suitability regimes (from highly suitable to poorly suitable) and evaluated them for their regeneration ability and genetic diversity. We also evaluated them for two plant functional traits, fluctuating asymmetry – an index of genetic homeostasis, and specific leaf weight – an index of primary productivity, often assumed to be good surrogates of fitness. We show a significant positive correlation between the predicted habitat quality and plant functional traits, regeneration index and genetic diversity of populations. Populations at sites predicted to be highly suitable had a higher regeneration and gene diversity compared to populations in sites predicted to be poor or unsuitable. Further, individuals in the highly suitable sites exhibited significantly less fluctuating asymmetry and significantly higher specific leaf weight compared to individuals in the poorly suitable habitats. These results for the first time provide an explicit test of the ENM with respect to the plant functional traits, regeneration ability and genetic diversity of populations along a habitat suitability gradient. We discuss the implication of these resultsfor designing viable species conservation and restoration programs.

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Climate-change and mass mortality events in overwintering monarch butterflies

Cited by 16 publications

References 22 publications

Monarchs in decline: a collateral landscape‐level effect of modern agriculture

Monarchs in decline: a collateral landscape‐level effect of modern agriculture

Evaluating confidence in climate‐based predictions of population change in a migratory species

Do Ecological Niche Model Predictions Reflect the Adaptive Landscape of Species?: A Test Using Myristica malabarica Lam., an Endemic Tree in the Western Ghats, India

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