Climate change and phenological responses of two seabird species breeding in the high-Arctic

Abstract

The timing of breeding is a life-history trait that can greatly affect fitness, because successful reproduction depends on the match between the food requirements for raising young and the seasonal peak in food availability. We analysed phenology (hatch dates) in relation to climate change for 2 seabird species breeding in the high-Arctic, little auks Alle alle and black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla, for the periods 1963-2008 and 1970-2008, respectively. We show that spring climate has changed during the study period, with a strong increase in both air temperature (TEMP) and sea surface temperature (SST) and a decrease in sea ice concentration. Little auks showed a trend for earlier breeding over the study period, while kittiwakes showed a non-significant trend for later breeding, demonstrating different phenological responses in these 2 species. Little auks and kittiwakes adjusted their timing of breeding to different environmental signals. Spring TEMP was the best predictor of little auk phenology, with a significant negative effect. Spring SST was the strongest predictor of kittiwake phenology, with a non-significant negative effect. Spring sea ice concentration and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) winter index had a low relative variable importance. Furthermore, in kittiwakes, years with late breeding were associated with low clutch size and mean annual breeding success, indicating poor investment and food availability. This study identifies some spring environmental factors important for regulating the timing of breeding in the high-Arctic, most likely through effects on snow cover limiting access to nest sites and the development of the polar marine food web. It remains to be investigated whether environmental factors are reliable predictors of marine prey phenology, and whether the decision to start breeding is constrained by food availability.

Visual prey availability and distribution of foraging little auks (Alle alle) in the shelf waters of West Spitsbergen

“…This adaptation might help them to adjust to the less favourable environmental changes in the North Atlantic, which are now beginning to occur. However, in the long-term time perspective, little auks are able to successfully breed and rear their chicks only in highly productive, cold and transparent waters adjacent to breeding colonies, where they efficiently forage on abundant energy-rich and easily available copepods (Stempniewicz et al 2007;Moe et al 2009). …”

Marine birds and mammals foraging in the rapidly deglaciating Arctic fjord - numbers, distribution and habitat preferences

“…Marine bird and mammal sensitivity to the loss of sea ice habitat will depend partially on current population sizes and distributions, which will need to be monitored in order to identify species at risk and to employ appropriate conservation strategies (Gaston et al 2005;Laidre et al 2008Laidre et al , 2015Moe et al 2009;Hoegh-Guldberg and Bruno 2010;Lydersen et al 2014). Widely recorded sea ice shrinking and rapid glacier retreating may have different ecological consequences on coastal trophic seabird and mammal foraging communities.…”

Ecological correlates of range shifts of Late Pleistocene mammals

“…The past half-century has produced temperatures higher than anything seen in 1300 years with 11 of the past 12 years between 1995 and 2007 among the 12 warmest on record (IPCC 2007). We are already seeing the effects of these changes on animals and plants in the form of range shifts (Parmesan 1996(Parmesan , 2006Parmesan et al 1999;Walther et al 2002;Parmesan & Yohe 2003;Thomas 2010), phenology changes (Walther et al 2002;Parmesan 2006;Eppich et al 2009;Moe et al 2009;Bauer et al 2010;Kennedy & Crozier 2010;Wipf 2010;Zhang et al 2010), population declines and extinction (Pounds et al 1999;Parmesan & Yohe 2003;Root et al 2003;Thomas et al 2004;Parmesan 2006). Understanding and making reasonable predictions for what will happen to species as climate change continues is an important step in preparing for the impacts.…”