Climate change and population migration in Brazil’s Northeast: scenarios for 2025–2050

Abstract

This research contributes to an understanding of the relationship between climate change, economic impacts and migration. We model the long-term relationship (up to 45 years of projection) between demographic dynamics-particularly migration-driven by changes in the performance of the economy due to climate changes in the Northeast region of Brazil. The region is of particular relevance to the study of climate change impacts given its large human population (28% of Brazil's population) and high levels of impoverishment, having an extensive semi-dry area which will be severely impacted by growing temperatures. Ultimately, the integrated model generates state-and municipal-level migration scenarios based on climate change impacts on the primary economic sectors and their articulations with other sectors. Results suggest that the predicted climate changes will impact severely the agriculture sector in the region, acting as a potential migration push factor to other regions in the country. Finally, we discuss how the increased vulnerability of some groups, particularly migrants, can be factored into Brazilian public policy and planning.

Evolution of the deaths registry system in Brazil: associations with changes in the mortality profile, under-registration of death counts, and ill-defined causes of death

“…The assumption that the population is closed to migration is important to Brazilian regions, since the country is marked by significant migration flows between its regions 22 . We follow the approach proposed by Hill et al 15 by taking the average of the estimates produced by the combination of the general growth balance method with the synthetic extinct generation to provide the best fit for the model.…”

CLIMATE-TREE GROWTH RELATIONSHIPS OF Mimosa tenuiflora IN SEASONALLY DRY TROPICAL FOREST, BRAZIL

“…Similar situations are occurring in different regions of tropical forest (LOPEZ; VILLALBA, 2011). The effects of rainfall variation in semi-arid Brazil, taking into account population growth and demands for land use have been modeled by Barbieri et al (2010) and Krol and Bronstert (2007). Intense dry events have been attributed to "El Niño" (SILVA, 2004), and can be recognized by examination of growth ring patterns in dry forest species (BRIENEN et al, 2010;FICHTLER et al, 2004;GEBREKIRSTOS et al, 2008;LOPEZ et al, 2006;RODRIGUEZ et al, 2005).…”

As dimensões demográficas das mudanças climáticas: cenários de mudança do clima e as tendências do crescimento populacional

“…Direta ou indiretamente, tais mudanças podem afetar o maior ou menor grau de vulnerabilidade de determinados grupos populacionais, condicionando uma redistribuição espacial da população nestes contextos (BARBIERI et al, 2010;CARMO;SILVA, 2009 O Grupo de Trabalho II (GT-II/AR-4) concentra-se nas avaliações de grupos populacionais vulneráveis e das medidas de adaptação consideradas. Em parte, uma das dificuldades de se confirmar com grau de confiança elevado os impactos já existentes das mudanças do clima está exatamente na capacidade de adaptação de grupos populacionais e regiões, o que dificulta sua confirmação, uma que impactos existentes podem já ter sofrido algum processo de adaptação (MCLEMAN, 2009;REID et al, 2007;MOSER;LUERS, 2008;KLEIN et al, 2007).…”