Climate change and specialty coffee potential in Ethiopia

Abstract

Current climate change impact studies on coffee have not considered impact on coffee typicities that depend on local microclimatic, topographic and soil characteristics. Thus, this study aims to provide a quantitative risk assessment of the impact of climate change on suitability of five premium specialty coffees in Ethiopia. We implement an ensemble model of three machine learning algorithms to predict current and future (2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) suitability for each specialty coffee under four Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Results show that the importance of variables determining coffee suitability in the combined model is different from those for specialty coffees despite the climatic factors remaining more important in determining suitability than topographic and soil variables. Our model predicts that 27% of the country is generally suitable for coffee, and of this area, only up to 30% is suitable for specialty coffees. The impact modelling showed that the combined model projects a net gain in coffee production suitability under climate change in general but losses in five out of the six modelled specialty coffee growing areas. We conclude that depending on drivers of suitability and projected impacts, climate change will significantly affect the Ethiopian speciality coffee sector and area-specific adaptation measures are required to build resilience.

Climate suitability predictions for the cultivation of macadamia (Macadamia integrifolia) in Malawi using climate change scenarios

“…Barrueto et al [ 25 ] predicted losses in suitable areas for macadamia production in Nepal’s lowlands due to warming conditions caused by climate change, concurrent with the current study results for Malawi. In Ethiopia, Chemura et al [ 40 ] projected declines in suitable areas for specialty coffee under climate change scenarios, confirming our results that climate change may have a negative impact on crop suitability. Bunn et al [ 11 ] predicted losses in suitable areas for tea production in southern Malawi due to projected increases in warming and frequency of droughts, which is consistent with the current study in the same region.…”

“…Conversely, in Nepal, temperature-based factors were identified primarily as determinants for the suitability for macadamia [ 25 ]. Chemura et al [ 40 ] argue that differences in scale and geography explain such variations, implying that local and regional factors can influence macadamia potential. This explains our findings, which show that precipitation-based parameters are more relevant in predicting macadamia suitability than temperature-based factors, verifying zoning studies for macadamia production done for the country [ 59 ].…”

“…In species distribution models, multicollinearity (multiple correlations between variables) among the bioclimatic predictors may result in overfitting or bias in the resulting suitability model [ 39 , 40 ]. To avoid these challenges, variable quality evaluation criterion using a multicollinearity degree was employed through the variance inflation factor analysis (VIF).…”

“…In addition to informing policy and trade, this assessment is a first step toward identifying and implementing adaptation measures tailored to macadamia within global boundaries. We concentrate on climate projections for the 2050s to align with the United Nations framework of global challenges in agriculture and food security [ 29 ].…”

Distribución potencial actual y futura de Coffea arabica L. en la subcuenca Decozalapa, Veracruz, México

“…La alta variabilidad climática (mayor número e intensidad en sequías, granizadas, lluvias e inundaciones) generará cambios en la distribución, idoneidad y productividad de los cultivos en el mundo (Monterroso-Rivas, Conde-Álvarez, Gómez-Díaz y López-García, 2007; Monterroso-Rivas, Conde-Álvarez, Gay-García, Gómez-Díaz y López-García, 2012; Chemura, Kutywayo, Chidoko y Mahoya, 2016; Chemura et al, 2021), así como la pérdida de servicios ecosistémicos (Chemura et al, 2016;Monterroso-Rivas et al, 2007;Schroth y Ruf, 2014). México, está particularmente expuesto a los efectos del cambio climático (Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales [Semarnat], 2014), siendo uno de los países más vulnerables (Harmeling y Eckstein, 2012).…”