Climate Change and the Risk of Conflict in Africa

Brown, Oli; Crawford, Alec

doi:10.1057/9780230115538_5

Cited by 5 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…It is important that Sweden creates and scales up projects with ‘principal’ DRR objectives, especially given that many of Sweden’s recipients are fragile and conflict-affected states where long-term projects improving DRR capacity and stabilizing the performance are critical. A significant number of studies have found that in fragile and conflict affected states, the occurrence of a natural hazard can exacerbate existing daily challenges, heightening sources of tension such as weak governance, historical grievances, mobilization, famine and poverty (Brown and Crawford, 2009; Yanda and Bronkhorst, 2011). In turn, instability and unrest further reduce the ability of states to respond to and recover from disasters and leave their citizens vulnerable to a range of disaster and climate shocks.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Is Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction Progressing in Terms of Development Cooperation? A Portfolio Analysis of DRR Aid

Lee

2023

Progress in Development Studies

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In 2018, the OECD Development Assistance Committee (DAC) created a new policy marker for disaster risk reduction (DRR) to help member states to monitor and report the progress made on the mainstreaming of DRR into their development activities. Drawing on this DRR marker, this study found that DAC members’ DRR mainstreaming remains in the incipient stage, with a significant gap between rhetoric and action. Important areas for improvement include a more comprehensive understanding of disaster risk; increased funding for activities principally targeting DRR, larger scale projects; enhanced financial stability without compromising other development objectives; and further integration of DRR and climate change adaption into development projects.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Is Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction Progressing in Terms of Development Cooperation? A Portfolio Analysis of DRR Aid

Lee

2023

Progress in Development Studies

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“…Based on analysis of existing research on conflict and climate change, we identify five main ways through which climate-related security and development risks can lead to conflict: (1) growing competitions over (scarce) resources, (2) rising inequalities and undermining livelihoods, (3) possible manipulation by (armed) opposition or violent (extremist) groups, (4) the impact of climate change on food prices and food supplies and (5) the 'unintended impacts' of incoherent (climate) policies (Detges et al 2020, Rüttinger et al 2015, Brown 2020.…”

Section: Linking Climate Change To Conflict: Climate-related Security...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…But the linkages are still heavily debated and intricate. For example, a 2016 study suggests that droughts in the 1970-80s in Mali led to conflict in 2000s, not because of scarcity, but as a result of the exposure of migrated young men from Mali to revolutionary ideas in Libya and Algeria, and further radicalisation as a result of political marginalisation (Brown 2020). According to Brown (2020) adopting a simplistic narrative around the impact of climate change on jihadist movements might be used to mask the responsibility of governments in creating conditions of political marginalisation and low development.…”

Section: Linking Climate Change To Conflict: Climate-related Security...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and security in North Africa

Desmidt

2021

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In this paper, we apply the concept of ‘cascading climate risks’ to explain how climate change has spillover effects across different sectors and policy domains. We have identified three sets of climate-related security and development risks for Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia. These include: 1. risks related to the decreasing natural resources and in particular water, 2. risks for the loss of (rural) livelihoods and rising inequalities, and 3. risks related to the unintended (negative) consequences of incoherent (climate change) policies. In this paper, we apply the concept of ‘cascading climate risks’ to explain how climate change has spillover effects across different sectors and policy domains. We have identified three sets of climate-related security and development risks for Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia. These include: 1. risks related to the decreasing natural resources and in particular water, 2. risks for the loss of (rural) livelihoods and rising inequalities, and 3. risks related to the unintended (negative) consequences of incoherent (climate change) policies. In a context of existing socio-political and economic grievances, the pressures caused by global warming, alongside current weaknesses in governance structures and the absence of effective regional cooperation, can potentially lead to further fractures in the already fragile social contract between governments and citizens in North Africa. The cascading risks and challenges that North African governments and citizens face due to the climate emergency require the attention from European policymakers, given the strong trade, social and financial relations and ties between North Africa and Europe. Cascading climate risks mean that adaptation strategies will have an impact both within and outside Europe and North Africa. Hence, there will be the need to ensure policy coherence between environmental, trade and socio-economic concerns and a much needed, long-term and inherently political effort to tackle climate change in the next decades.

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“…According to ([12], p. 13), "as early as the fourth century BC, Plato persuasively described extensive and insightful human impacts on forests: Hills that were once covered by forests and produced abundant pasture now produce only food for bees." The Sahara Desert was also described as a landscape of lakes and forest 7000 years ago [13]. Several change phenomena are also caused by globalisation, described as the compression of space and time scales concerning the flows of information, people, goods and services [14].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Managing and Sustaining the Coupled Water-Land-Food Systems in the Context of Global Change: How Qualitative System Dynamic Modelling Can Assist in Understanding and Designing High-Leverage Interventions

Kotir¹

2021

Natural Resources Management and Biological Sciences

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The water-land-food system is essential for sustaining the basic human needs. While the demand for these resources is increasing rapidly, their sustainability has been hampered by a plethora of challenges, including rapid population growth, climate change, land-use change, and land degradation. To attain a sustainable supply and efficiently manage these resources, interactions between all resources and the factors constraining/sustaining them need to be understood. In this chapter, four systems archetypes based on grounded in the systems thinking framework and system dynamics approach were employed to explore and identify the key system drivers, factors, and processes that influence the behaviour and sustainability of water-land-food resources nexus in the Volta River Basin, West Africa. Development of the archetypes centered on a generic causal loop diagram constructed with stakeholders in previous studies capturing the linkages between the population, water system, environmental and socioeconomics. These system archetypes illustrate that the past and the current paradigm of water and land and agricultural production management is unsustainable. The results highlight key areas, which could be useful for the current and future sustainable management, even under uncertain system understanding or deficiencies in quantitative data.

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Climate Change and the Risk of Conflict in Africa

Cited by 5 publications

References 18 publications

How Is Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction Progressing in Terms of Development Cooperation? A Portfolio Analysis of DRR Aid

How Is Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction Progressing in Terms of Development Cooperation? A Portfolio Analysis of DRR Aid

Climate change and security in North Africa

Managing and Sustaining the Coupled Water-Land-Food Systems in the Context of Global Change: How Qualitative System Dynamic Modelling Can Assist in Understanding and Designing High-Leverage Interventions

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