Climate Change and the Stability of Water Allocation Agreements

Ansink, Erik; Ruijs, Arjan

doi:10.1007/s10640-008-9190-3

Cited by 64 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Several recent studies emphasize that the role of institutions in mitigating the effect of climate-induced resource scarcity should not be underestimated [23,24,47]. Informal rules such as the social norm modelled here can play an important role for the establishment of cooperation and may also be relevant for maintaining cooperation under resource scarcity.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 87%

Robustness of norm-driven cooperation in the commons

2016

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Sustainable use of common-pool resources such as fish, water or forests depends on the cooperation of resource users that restrain their individual extraction to socially optimal levels. Empirical evidence has shown that under certain social and biophysical conditions, self-organized cooperation in the commons can evolve. Global change, however, may drastically alter these conditions. We assess the robustness of cooperation to environmental variability in a stylized model of a community that harvests a shared resource. Community members follow a norm of socially optimal resource extraction, which is enforced through social sanctioning. Our results indicate that both resource abundance and a small increase in resource variability can lead to collapse of cooperation observed in the no-variability case, while either scarcity or large variability have the potential to stabilize it. The combined effects of changes in amount and variability can reinforce or counteract each other depending on their size and the initial level of cooperation in the community. If two socially separate groups are ecologically connected through resource leakage, cooperation in one can destabilize the other. These findings provide insights into possible effects of global change and spatial connectivity, indicating that there is no simple answer as to their effects on cooperation and sustainable resource use.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 87%

Robustness of norm-driven cooperation in the commons

2016

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“…The model runs five GCMs outputs, four different climate scenarios and three transmission protocols. In this research, we analyzed three common sharing rules which have been described by Ansink & Ruijs [20]. General form of these Protocols and their policies are shown below: Proportional Allocation (PA): upstream users receives αQt and downstream users receives (1 − α) Qt, with 0 < α < 1;…”

Section: Water Allocation Model and Water Transmission Protocolsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inter-Basin Water Transfer Projects and Climate Change: The Role of Allocation Protocols in Economic Efficiency of the Project. Case Study: Dez to Qomrood Inter-Basin Water Transmission Project (Iran)

Maknoon¹,

Kazem²,

Hasanzadeh³

2012

JWARP

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Nowadays, there is a growing emphasis on Inter-basin water transfer projects as costly activities with ambiguous effects on environment, society and economy. Since the concept of climate change was in its embryonic phase before 1990's, the majority of these projects planned before that period have not considered the effect of long term variation of water resources. In all of these numerous operational and under-construction projects, an intelligent selection of the best water transmission protocol, can help the governments to optimize their expenditures on these projects ,and also can help water resources managers to face climate change effects wisely. In this paper as a case study, Dez to Qomrood inter-basin water transfer project is considered to evaluate the efficiency of three different protocols in long term. The effect of climate change has been forecasted via a wide range of GCMs (Global Circulation Model) in order to calculate the change of flow in the basin's area with different climate scenarios. After these calculation, a water allocation model has been used to evaluate which of these three water transmission protocols (Proportional Allocation (PA), Fix Upstream allocation (FU), and Fix Downstream allocation (FD)) is the most efficient logic switch economically in a framework including both upstream and downstream stakeholders. As the final result, it can be inferred that Fix Downstream allocation (FD) protocol can supply more population especially with urban water for a fix expense and also is the most adapted protocol with future global change, at least in the first round of sustainability assessment.

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“…Changes in the environment, including climate change and human activities, have a significant impact on the allocation of water resources and WSS [54,55]. Environmental changes may lead to decreases in the quantity of natural water, increased water demands [39], and reduced reliability in the water allocation [55].…”

Section: Changes In the Environment Can Affect The Allocation Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Environmental changes may lead to decreases in the quantity of natural water, increased water demands [39], and reduced reliability in the water allocation [55]. In contrast, the water supply will increase with advancements in project construction and operation and improvements in the water resources management level [56].…”

Section: Changes In the Environment Can Affect The Allocation Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal Allocation of Water Resources Based on Water Supply Security

Wang

Hou

Jiang

et al. 2016

Water

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Abstract:Under the combined impacts of climate change and human activities, a series of water issues, such as water shortages, have arisen all over the world. According to current studies in Science and Nature, water security has become a frontier critical topic. Water supply security (WSS), which is the state of water resources and their capacity and their capacity to meet the demand of water users by water supply systems, is an important part of water security. Currently, WSS is affected by the amount of water resources, water supply projects, water quality and water management. Water shortages have also led to water supply insecurity. WSS is now evaluated based on the balance of the supply and demand under a single water resources condition without considering the dynamics of the varying conditions of water resources each year. This paper developed an optimal allocation model for water resources that can realize the optimal allocation of regional water resources and comprehensively evaluate WSS. The objective of this model is to minimize the duration of water shortages in the long term, as characterized by the Water Supply Security Index (WSSI), which is the assessment value of WSS, a larger WSSI value indicates better results. In addition, the simulation results of the model can determine the change process and dynamic evolution of the WSS. Quanzhou, a city in China with serious water shortage problems, was selected as a case study. The allocation results of the current year and target year of planning demonstrated that the level of regional comprehensive WSS was significantly influenced by the capacity of water supply projects and the conditions of the natural water resources. The varying conditions of the water resources allocation results in the same year demonstrated that the allocation results and WSSI were significantly affected by reductions in precipitation, decreases in the water yield coefficient, and changes in the underlying surface.

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Climate Change and the Stability of Water Allocation Agreements

Cited by 64 publications

References 23 publications

Robustness of norm-driven cooperation in the commons

Robustness of norm-driven cooperation in the commons

Inter-Basin Water Transfer Projects and Climate Change: The Role of Allocation Protocols in Economic Efficiency of the Project. Case Study: Dez to Qomrood Inter-Basin Water Transmission Project (Iran)

Optimal Allocation of Water Resources Based on Water Supply Security

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