Climate change and tropical cyclone trend

Moon, Il‐Ju; Kim, Sung‐Hun; Chan, Johnny C. L.

doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1222-3

Cited by 161 publications

(105 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…To be in line with the IBTrACS, the periods before and after 1970 are defined as the pre-satellite era and satellite era, respectively, in this study. Similar partition can be also found in Moon et al (2019) and Lanzante (2019). Notes that period 1970-2016 is indeed the longest time period that we can retrieve from the best-track position data with high confidence.…”

Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 80%

“…Such varying effects are more apparent for tropical cyclones over land. On top of that, this study further suggests that the slowdown of global tropical-cyclone translation speed stated by Kossin (2018a) may not be a real climate signal or it may be exaggerated, which is consistent with what Moon et al (2019) and Lanzante (2019) commented coincidentally.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 88%

“…It is declared that this study is not the follow-up of Moon et al (2019) and Lanzante (2019). We worked independently and doubted the global slowdown of tropical-cyclone translation speed suggested by Kossin (2018a) coincidentally, though Kossin (2019) still insists.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 90%

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Are global tropical cyclones moving slower in a warming climate?

Chan

2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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The local tropical-cyclone-related rainfall totals largely depend on the rain rate near the center and the translation speed of a tropical cyclone. Understanding how they respond to a changing climate has been a hot topic. A recent astounding study reported a 10% slowdown in global tropical-cyclone translation speed over the past 68 years and implicitly related this to the weakening of tropical circulation forced by the anthropogenic warming. It thereby suggested that it might result in more local rainfall totals in a warming climate. However, here this study shows that no robust and significant observational and modeling evidences reveal that they are. The data artefacts introduced by the changes in measurement practices, particularly the introduction of satellite capabilities since the 1970s, are likely the main source of heterogeneities leading to such disagreement. The global slowdown of tropical-cyclone translation speed becomes indeterminate and a significant global speedup trend is even found over land if the records in more reliable satellite sensing era period starting from 1970 are examined, where this period is also the most pronounced warming period in the last half-century. The relationship between the slowdown of tropical cyclones and anthropogenic warming is therefore not apparent and the relevant potential increase in local rainfall totals in the future warming climate is suspicious.

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Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 80%

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 88%

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Are global tropical cyclones moving slower in a warming climate?

Chan

2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…There is growing interest on the extent to which the slow translation speed of Harvey may be part of a broader global slowdown of TC translation speed. [10][11][12][13] Recent global and regional climate modeling studies projected increased TC rainfall rate in response to global warming scenarios. [14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25] An important element of the projected increase is the atmospheric moistening that, in absense of changes in circulation, should lead to enhanced moisture convergence and thus increase of rainfall rate.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Causes of large projected increases in hurricane precipitation rates with global warming

et al. 2019

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Recent climate modeling studies point to an increase in tropical cyclone rainfall rates in response to climate warming. These studies indicate that the percentage increase in tropical cyclone rainfall rates often outpaces the increase in saturation specific humidity expected from the Clausius-Clapeyron relation (~7%°C −1). We explore the change in tropical cyclone rainfall rates over all oceans under global warming using a high-resolution climate model with the ability to simulate the entire intensity spectrum of tropical cyclones. Consistent with previous results, we find a robust increase of tropical cyclone rainfall rates. The percentage increase for inner-core tropical cyclone rainfall rates in our model is markedly larger than the Clausius-Clapeyron rate. However, when the impact of storm intensity is excluded, the rainfall rate increase shows a much better match with the Clausius-Clapeyron rate, suggesting that the "super Clausius-Clapeyron" scaling of rainfall rates with temperature increase is due to the warming-induced increase of tropical cyclone intensity. The increase of tropical cyclone intensity and environmental water vapor, in combination, explain the tropical cyclone rainfall rate increase under global warming.

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“…He further raised that the local rainfall totals would increase potentially with the slowdown of translation speed. However, Moon et al put forward that the missing data in TC best-track dataset before satellite era (1949)(1950)(1951)(1952)(1953)(1954)(1955)(1956)(1957)(1958)(1959)(1960)(1961)(1962)(1963)(1964)(1965) would produce spurious trends in TC translation speed [11]. Another point they discussed is that the high latitudinal dependency of TC translation speed could strongly influence the global trend by the data inhomogeneity.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in Tropical-Cyclone Translation Speed over the Western North Pacific

Zhang

Zheng

et al. 2020

Atmosphere

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The trend of tropical-cyclone (TC) translation speed is a hot topic recently. Changes in TC translation speed during 1949–2017 over the western North Pacific are analyzed using two best-track datasets here. The TC translation speed decreased during 1949–2017, but there was no significant trend after 1981. The TC translation speed also changes with latitude and intensity. In the tropical ocean, TC translation speed decreased by 5.9% during 69-year recording period. North of 23.5° N, the changes in translation speed is highly consistent with the latitude of TC occurrence. The translation speed of tropical depressions showed no significant trend during the period 1949–2017, but the translation speed of typhoons decreased over the 69-year recording period. The period 1949–1981 contributed most of the slowdown trend. There also was an increase in the frequency of typhoons with translation speed slower than 6 m/s. The decrease of translation speed of typhoons before 1981 was likely caused by the weakening of the summertime tropical circulation.

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Climate change and tropical cyclone trend

Cited by 161 publications

References 10 publications

Are global tropical cyclones moving slower in a warming climate?

Are global tropical cyclones moving slower in a warming climate?

Causes of large projected increases in hurricane precipitation rates with global warming

Changes in Tropical-Cyclone Translation Speed over the Western North Pacific

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