Climate change and water resources in the Bagmati River Basin, Nepal

Babel, Mukand S.; Bhusal, Shyam P.; Wahid, Shahriar; Agarwal, Anshul

doi:10.1007/s00704-013-0910-4

Cited by 67 publications

(58 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…Its population increased from 1.6 million to more than 2.5 million between (CBS 2001, 2012. Kathmandu Valley lies in the upper Bagmati River basin, which sustains most socioeconomic activities (Babel et al 2014). The population of the valley, growing about 4.3% annually, increased by more than 499% between 1955 and 2008 (Bhattarai and Conway 2010).…”

Section: Kathmandu Valleymentioning

confidence: 99%

Flows of change: dynamic water rights and water access in peri-urban Kathmandu

Shrestha¹,

Roth²,

Joshi³

2018

E&S

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ABSTRACT. Urbanization and the changing climate are increasingly influencing people's access to land and water. Changes in use of, and rights and access to, land and water are most acutely experienced in peri-urban areas. We analyze these changes in peri-urban Kathmandu, Nepal. Increasing pressures on land and growing water needs of an expanding population in Kathmandu Valley are creating new patterns of water use, water-related conflicts, and (in)securities. We use two case studies that are characteristic of these changes, with a focus on the microlevel redefinitions of, and struggles about, rights, access, and notions of legitimate water use, and what these mean for water security and water conflict in a socially and institutionally complex and dynamic environment. Our findings show that these water-related changes cause contestations and conflicts between peri-urban water users. Amid increasing competition for water, people are using new sources and technologies, searching for negotiated solutions based on local norms and rights, and co-opting other water users through cooperation to create access opportunities and avoid conflicts. Our cases show self-restraint in practices of claiming or accessing water, while avoidance of conflicts also derives from an awareness of unequal power relations between user groups, past experiences of violence used against protesters, and lack of active intervention to regulate increasing exploitation of peri-urban land and water resources.

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Section: Kathmandu Valleymentioning

confidence: 99%

Flows of change: dynamic water rights and water access in peri-urban Kathmandu

Shrestha¹,

Roth²,

Joshi³

2018

E&S

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“…For this purpose, SDSM version 4.2 (Wilby and Dawson 2007) has been used for statistical downscaling. Several reserachers have used SDSM for downscaling GCM data to a point scale (Khadka et al 2014;Pervez and Henebry 2014;Babel et al 2013;Mahmood and Babel 2013) To remove any systematic bias in the downscaled climate projection data, bias correction using long term monthly mean has been applied. Temperature data has been corrected by addition of difference between mean monthly observed temperature and SDSM simulated mean monthly temperature for observed period.…”

Section: Climate Change Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change projection for the marsyangdi river basin, Nepal using statistical downscaling of GCM and its implications in geodisasters

Khadka

Pathak

2016

Geoenviron Disasters

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Background: There is a very high uncertainty in the future climate change in the Himalayas and few studies has been carried out towards predicting future climate scenario in the Nepal Himalayas. In this study, climate change projection has been carried out for the Marsyangdi River Basin in the Nepal Himalaya which is focused on quantifying impacts of climate change with meteorological parameters (temperature and precipitation) for the future period, based on the outputs from fifth assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The study makes use of CanESM2 dataset which are statistically downscaled using statistical downscaling model (SDSM). Climate projections are available for three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) namely RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for up to 2100. Results: The study revealed that both the temperature and precipitation will increase for three RCPs in future. Compared to the baseline period, the annual average of maximum temperature has been projected to increase by 0.82°C, 1.35°C and 2.29°C by 2090s, while, annual average of minimum temperature has been projected to increase by 0.87°C, 1.44°C and 2.43°C by 2090s for RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 respectively. Similarly, annual average precipitation has been projected to increase by 4, 14 and 21 % by 2090s for RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 respectively. The projected percentage increase in annual precipitation has been found to have inverse relationship with the elevation. Conclusions: The study suggests that climate change is evident in the study area and these findings will be useful in climate change impact assessment in different sectors such as geodisasters and future management strategies in the Marsyangdi River Basin.

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“…Various authors used SRES scenarios for climate change impact studies [11][12][13][14][15], nowadays those scenarios have become outdated. Most of the research to date in the Jhelum and Upper Indus Basin Mean monthly temperature and precipitation in Mangla watershed and sub-basins are specified in Figure 2.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Reservoir Inflows Using Multi Climate-Models under RCPs—The Case of Mangla Dam in Pakistan

Babur

Babel

Shrestha

et al. 2016

Water

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Assessment of climate change on reservoir inflow is important for water and power stressed countries. Projected climate is subject to uncertainties related to climate change scenarios and Global Circulation Models (GCMs). This paper discusses the consequences of climate change on discharge. Historical climatic and gauging data were collected from different stations within a watershed. Bias correction was performed on GCMs temperature and precipitation data. After successful development of the hydrological modeling system (SWAT) for the basin, streamflow was simulated for three future periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100) and compared with the baseline data to explore the changes in different flow indicators such as mean flow, low flow, median flow, high flow, flow duration curves, temporal shift in peaks, and temporal shifts in center-of-volume dates. From the results obtained, an overall increase in mean annual flow was projected in the basin under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Winter and spring showed a noticeable increase in streamflow, while summer and autumn showed a decrease in streamflow. High flows were predicted to increase, but median flow was projected to decrease in the future under both scenarios. Flow duration curves showed that the probability of occurrence of high flow is likely to be more in the future. It was also noted that peaks were predicted to shift from May to July in the future, and the center-of-volume date of the annual flow may vary from −11 to 23 days in the basin, under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. As a whole, the Mangla basin will face more floods and less droughts in the future due to the projected increase in high and low flows, decrease in median flows and greater temporal and magnitudinal variations in peak flows. These outcomes suggest that it is important to consider the influence of climate change on water resources to frame appropriate guidelines for planning and management.

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Climate change and water resources in the Bagmati River Basin, Nepal

Cited by 67 publications

References 30 publications

Flows of change: dynamic water rights and water access in peri-urban Kathmandu

Flows of change: dynamic water rights and water access in peri-urban Kathmandu

Climate change projection for the marsyangdi river basin, Nepal using statistical downscaling of GCM and its implications in geodisasters

Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Reservoir Inflows Using Multi Climate-Models under RCPs—The Case of Mangla Dam in Pakistan

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