Climate change as a global amplifier of human–wildlife conflict

Abrahms, Briana; Carter, Neil; Clark-Wolf, T. J.; Gaynor, Kaitlyn M.; Johansson, Erik; McInturff, Alex; Nisi, Anna C.; Rafiq, Kasim; West, Leigh

doi:10.1038/s41558-023-01608-5

Cited by 79 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 80 publications

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“…Yet despite their importance, food quantity, quality, and consumption patterns are highly vulnerable to global change. Furthermore, for some species like apex predators, climate‐induced shifts in prey selection directly exacerbate conflict with humans (Abrahms et al, 2023).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Human–wildlife conflicts may become amplified as both compete over limited resources in shared landscapes with ineffective mitigation strategies (Abrahms et al, 2023; Harris et al, 2023) (Box 2). In Kenya, livestock depredation events were highest when natural prey density was lowest during the wet season (Mukeka et al, 2019).…”

Section: Behavioral Pathways Of Global Changes Affecting Dietmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Human-wildlife conflicts may become amplified as both compete over limited resources in shared landscapes with ineffective mitigation strategies (Abrahms et al, 2023;Harris et al, 2023)…”

Section: B Ehavior Al Pathways Of G Lobal Chang E S Affec Ting Die Tmentioning

confidence: 99%

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What's going to be on the menu with global environmental changes?

Hallam

Harris

2023

Global Change Biology

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Ongoing anthropogenic change is altering the planet at an unprecedented rate, threatening biodiversity, and ecosystem functioning. Species are responding to abiotic pressures at both individual and population levels, with changes affecting trophic interactions through consumptive pathways. Collectively, these impacts alter the goods and services that natural ecosystems will provide to society, as well as the persistence of all species. Here, we describe the physiological and behavioral responses of species to global changes on individual and population levels that result in detectable changes in diet across terrestrial and marine ecosystems. We illustrate shifts in the dynamics of food webs with implications for animal communities. Additionally, we highlight the myriad of tools available for researchers to investigate the dynamics of consumption patterns and trophic interactions, arguing that diet data are a crucial component of ecological studies on global change. We suggest that a holistic approach integrating the complexities of diet choice and trophic interactions with environmental drivers may be more robust at resolving trends in biodiversity, predicting food web responses, and potentially identifying early warning signs of diversity loss. Ultimately, despite the growing body of long‐term ecological datasets, there remains a dearth of diet ecology studies across temporal scales, a shortcoming that must be resolved to elucidate vulnerabilities to changing biophysical conditions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Behavioral Pathways Of Global Changes Affecting Dietmentioning

confidence: 99%

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What's going to be on the menu with global environmental changes?

Hallam

Harris

2023

Global Change Biology

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“…Climate and human land use determined the biotic interactions through different ecosystems, suggesting that future scenarios of climate and land use may directly affect the interactions of brown bears with food items, having important implications for ecosystem functioning and services, e.g., seed dispersal, reducing the abundance of ungulates or medium- size predators, which can influence the diversity of ecosystems 37, 38 and/or increase human- wildlife conflicts 39 , which is a problem for the conservation of species 40 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Including biotic interactions in species distribution models improves the understanding of species niche: a case of study with the brown bear in Europe

Lucas

Thuiller²,

Talluto³

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Biotic interactions are expected to influence species' responses to climate change, but they are usually not included when predicting future range shifts. We assessed the importance of biotic interactions to understand future consequences of climate and land use change for biodiversity using as a model system the brown bear (Ursus arctos) in Europe. By including biotic interactions using the spatial variation of energy contribution and habitat models of each food species, we showed that the use of biotic factors considerably improves our understanding of the distribution of brown bears. Predicted future range shifts, which included changes in the distribution of food species, varied greatly when considering various scenarios of change in biotic factors, warning about future indirect climate change effects. Our study confirmed that advancing our understanding of ecological networks of species interactions will improve future scenarios of biodiversity change, which is key for conserving biodiversity and ecosystem services.

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“…This is especially apparent for species dependent on Arctic sea ice habitat which has shown significant spatial and temporal declines with global climate warming (Stroeve et al, 2014; Laidre et al, 2015; Stern and Laidre, 2016; National Snow and Ice Data Center, 2019). In the case of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ), large ice dependent predators, sea ice decline will have a direct effect on the extent and characteristics of preferred habitat (Durner et al, 2009; Laidre et al, 2018; Lone et al, 2018) the availability of preferred prey (Pagano et al, 2018), and the amount of time they are able to stay on sea ice to find prey (Atwood et al, 2016), all which could lead to increased contact with humans and thus increased number of conflicts with humans (Stirling and Derocher, 2012; Atwood and Wilder, 2021; Rode et al, 2022; Abrahms et al, 2023).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relating Polar Bears Killed, Human Presence, and Ice Conditions in Svalbard 1987 – 2019

Vongraven

Amstrup²,

McDonald³

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Conflicts between humans and polar bears have been predicted to increase as polar bear prime habitat, sea ice, is decreasing. In Svalbard, a strong protection and strict control schemes have secured near complete records of bears killed and found dead since 1987. We analyzed the trend in the number of kills and related this to human visitation to the island. We found a slight decrease in the number of kills in the period 1987-2019, and a decrease in per capita number of kills when monthly kills were compared to the monthly number of visitors disembarking in the main settlement. We then used a discrete choice resource selection model to assess whether polar bear kill events are related to attributes of the kill sites and environmental conditions at the time. We divided Svalbard in four sectors, North, East, South, and West, and monthly average ice cover was calculated in 25-km rings around Svalbard, rings that were further delineated by the four sectors. We found that the odds of a kill was greater along the shoreline, and that the odds would be reduced by 50% when moving only 900 m from the shoreline when all sectors were included. Distance from other covariates like settlements, trapper's cabins, and landing sites for tourists did for the most part not have a significant impact on the odds of a kill. Sectorwise, ice cover had no significant impact on the odds for a kill. The decreasing trend in kills of polar bears might partly be explained by the success of strict protection and management regimes of Svalbard wilderness.

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Climate change as a global amplifier of human–wildlife conflict

Cited by 79 publications

References 80 publications

What's going to be on the menu with global environmental changes?

What's going to be on the menu with global environmental changes?

Including biotic interactions in species distribution models improves the understanding of species niche: a case of study with the brown bear in Europe

Relating Polar Bears Killed, Human Presence, and Ice Conditions in Svalbard 1987 – 2019

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