Climate Change, California Wine, and Wildlife Habitat

Abstract

Climate change may drive shifts in global agriculture that will affect remaining natural lands, with important consequences for the conservation of species and ecosystems. Wine production is an excellent model for examining this type of impact, because suitable climate is central to product quality and production is centered in Mediterranean climate regions that are all global biodiversity hotspots. Adaptation to climate change in existing vineyards may involve water use to ameliorate heat stress or drought, resulting in additional conservation issues. Global studies of wine, climate, and conservation have highlighted the need for more detailed regional analyses to better understand these complex multiple issues. Here we examine impacts of climate change on winegrape suitability in California and its possible implications for nature conservation and water use. Under two global climate models and two emissions scenarios, winegrape suitability in California is projected to decline overall and to move into undeveloped areas that provide important habitats for native species. Coastal and upslope areas retain and improve in suitability, respectively, while inland areas see the largest losses in suitability. Areas of declining suitability are regions in which heightened water use for vineyard adaptation may lead to declines in stream flow or conflicts with other water uses. Continued growth in global demand for wine and reduced production in areas of declining suitability will drive expansion into newly suitable areas, potentially impacting important species native to California. Existing vineyards in areas of declining suitability will likely need to adapt to remain viable. Advance planning for a changing climate and adaptation options that are not water intensive (e.g. vine orientation, trellising, or varietal switch) will help reduce potential water conservation issues in those areas. (JEL Classifications: Q15, Q54, Q57)

The Impact of Climate Change on Viticulture and Wine Quality

“…Regions located at high latitudes, which might currently be marginal for wine production, will become suitable for grape growing. Several studies focus on when and where this is likely to happen (Ferrise et al, 2016; Fraga et al, 2012; Hannah et al, 2013; Roehrdanz and Hannah, 2016). The authors—in particular, Hannah and colleagues—also model the decrease in suitability of current wine-growing regions.…”

Climate Change and Wine: A Review of the Economic Implications

“…26 In addition to being costly for the wine industry itself, this geographic shift may also lead to conservation conflicts in land use and freshwater ecosystems. Hannah et al (2013) and Roehrdanz and Hannah (2016) predict considerable conflicts between vineyards and resident wildlife worldwide. Within the United States, their studies point to areas in the Rocky Mountains and the border area between Washington State and British Columbia that are becoming increasingly desirable for viticulture, which, in turn, may displace animals and native plants.…”

“…Analyses that do not consider any adaptation tend to be more pessimistic than those that do. For instance, static climate suitability analyses for California (Roehrdanz and Hannah, 2016), the United States (White et al, 2006), and the entire world (Hannah et al, 2013) project a major decline in suitability for many traditional high-quality producing regions such as Bordeaux, the French Rhone valley, Tuscany, and Napa Valley. On the other hand, areas at higher latitudes that are currently not suitable for commercial viticulture may become suitable.…”

Global Climate Change, Sustainability, and Some Challenges for Grape and Wine Production

“…); therefore, future developments may alter many aspects of grapevine cultivation, from regions to quality (Hannah et al, 2013;Moriondo et al, 2013;Santos et al, 2012;Roehrdanz and Hannah, 2016;Ferrise et al, 2016; van Leeuwen and Darriet, 2016).…”