Climate change, conflict, and cooperation: Global analysis of the effectiveness of international river treaties in addressing water variability

Dinar, Shlomi; Katz, David; Stefano, Lucía De; Blankespoor, Brian

doi:10.1016/j.polgeo.2014.08.003

Cited by 94 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…Environmental changes may lead to decreases in the quantity of natural water, increased water demands [39], and reduced reliability in the water allocation [55]. In contrast, the water supply will increase with advancements in project construction and operation and improvements in the water resources management level [56].…”

Section: Changes In the Environment Can Affect The Allocation Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal Allocation of Water Resources Based on Water Supply Security

Wang

Hou

Jiang

et al. 2016

Water

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Abstract:Under the combined impacts of climate change and human activities, a series of water issues, such as water shortages, have arisen all over the world. According to current studies in Science and Nature, water security has become a frontier critical topic. Water supply security (WSS), which is the state of water resources and their capacity and their capacity to meet the demand of water users by water supply systems, is an important part of water security. Currently, WSS is affected by the amount of water resources, water supply projects, water quality and water management. Water shortages have also led to water supply insecurity. WSS is now evaluated based on the balance of the supply and demand under a single water resources condition without considering the dynamics of the varying conditions of water resources each year. This paper developed an optimal allocation model for water resources that can realize the optimal allocation of regional water resources and comprehensively evaluate WSS. The objective of this model is to minimize the duration of water shortages in the long term, as characterized by the Water Supply Security Index (WSSI), which is the assessment value of WSS, a larger WSSI value indicates better results. In addition, the simulation results of the model can determine the change process and dynamic evolution of the WSS. Quanzhou, a city in China with serious water shortage problems, was selected as a case study. The allocation results of the current year and target year of planning demonstrated that the level of regional comprehensive WSS was significantly influenced by the capacity of water supply projects and the conditions of the natural water resources. The varying conditions of the water resources allocation results in the same year demonstrated that the allocation results and WSSI were significantly affected by reductions in precipitation, decreases in the water yield coefficient, and changes in the underlying surface.

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Section: Changes In the Environment Can Affect The Allocation Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal Allocation of Water Resources Based on Water Supply Security

Wang

Hou

Jiang

et al. 2016

Water

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“…We control for the negotiation context 5 by borrowing from Zawahri et al (2014) a set of variables that identify bilateral treaties signed over bilateral basins (BTBB); bilateral treaties signed over multilateral basins (BTMB), multilateral treaties signed over multilateral basins (MTMB) and basin-wide treaties signed over multilateral basins (BWTMB). Following Dinar et al (2015), we introduce two sets of variables that measure the transaction cost of negotiating and maintaining the treaty, by using information on newsworthy events Transaction costs increase as the number of players in the coalition increases. But this increase is incrementally small.…”

Section: Empirical Specifications and Hypothesesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In each of the two event sub-data-sets (IWED/BAR and IRCC) we generated several proxy variables to reflect transaction cost in each dyad: number of positive events (EI > 0); number of negative events (EI < 0); number of events with EI > +1; number of events with EI < −1; average EI of positive and negative events (0 excluded); average EI of all events (0 included); and average of the anti-logged equivalent of EI. The latter approach was used also in previous studies using BAR event data (e.g., Brochmann, 2012;Dinar et al, 2015;Yoffe & Larson, 2001). The specific variables we developed include, for [i] = BAR, IRCC:…”

Section: Variable Constructionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recent work in the international relations field, examining international freshwater agreements (Brochmann, 2012;Dinar, Katz, De Stefano, & Blankespoor, 2015;Mitchell & Zawahri, 2015;Tir & Stinnett, 2012;Zentner, 2010), combines different event-based databases (International Water Event Database; Issue Correlates of War -River Claims Data Set; Rivers Cooperation and Conflict Database) that trace water disputes between riparians with databases covering the content of water treaties to examine the effectiveness of treaty design in managing transboundary water disputes. The findings reveal that treaties…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Why are there so few basin-wide treaties? Economics and politics of coalition formation in multilateral international river basins

Dinar

Stefano

Nigatu

et al. 2019

Water International

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Examinations of international water treaties suggest that riparian states are not heeding the advice to adopt IWRM. Theories suggest that the larger the number of negotiating states, the lower the cost (per state) of the joint operation of treaties, but the higher the transaction costs of negotiating and maintaining them. We model the trade-off between benefits and costs associated with the number of treaty signatories and apply it to a global treaty dataset. Findings confirm that the transaction costs of negotiation and the economies of scale are important in determining the paucity of basin-wide agreements, the treaties' content and their extent. ARTICLE HISTORYcan contribute to acceptable and effective management of transboundary rivers (in this article we do not address transboundary aquifers), but effectiveness appears to depend on the specific design features of the treaties.Research focusing on international water agreements covering multilateral basins also suggests that treaties that include all the riparian states (basin-wide treaties, such as the 1967 La Plata agreement) are exceptionally rare, existing in only 13% of the world's multilateral basins (Giordano et al., 2013). This finding contradicts the international agencies, environmentalists and engineers who encourage states to negotiate and reach basin-wide agreements to develop the basin in an efficient manner. With the exception of qualitative case studies (Kempkey, Pinard, Pochat, & Dinar, 2009;Waterbury, 2002), there is little systematic empirical analysis of the factors influencing the formation and design of basin-wide accords. Consequently, we are unable to provide policy advice to mediators attempting to promote the formation of basin-wide accords.This article seeks to fill this gap in the literature by attempting to explain the factors accounting for the relatively low number of basin-wide agreements in multilateral basins and for the content of these agreements. Combining theories of international relations and economics, we consider the influence of two factors. The first is the transaction costs of negotiating, enforcing and monitoring treaty commitments among a larger number of signatory riparian states. The second is economies of scale: the benefit of having a large group of states involved in the treaty, which could lower the average cost of the joint activity for each state. We examine the impact of these two factors not only on treaty formation but also on treaty contents, looking at the specific topics and problems addressed in water treaties (or issue areas) and the institutional features. Treaties governing international basins can cover various issues, such as allocating the river's waters, environmental regulation, hydropower generation, groundwater regulation, navigation, fishing, irrigation and infrastructure development. River treaties can also include institutional mechanisms for implementing the treaty and maintaining future cooperation. We examine the influence of economies of scale and transaction costs in the basin-wid...

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“…Existing empirical analysis suggests that states sharing basins with institutionalized mechanisms are more likely to select the negotiation path to address their water disputes and less likely to confront confl ict Hensel, Mitchell and Sowers 2006 ). Recent research has also revealed that joint river commissions or institutions can assist riparian states in managing transboundary river disputes and help build adaptive capacity to climatic variability (Tir and Stinnett 2012 ;Dinar et al 2015 ).…”

Section: Adapting To Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Water Security in the Middle East : Essays in Scientific and Social Cooperation

Cahan¹

2017

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Climate change, conflict, and cooperation: Global analysis of the effectiveness of international river treaties in addressing water variability

Cited by 94 publications

References 65 publications

Optimal Allocation of Water Resources Based on Water Supply Security

Optimal Allocation of Water Resources Based on Water Supply Security

Why are there so few basin-wide treaties? Economics and politics of coalition formation in multilateral international river basins

Water Security in the Middle East : Essays in Scientific and Social Cooperation

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