Climate change, conflict, and urban migration

Abstract

The adverse effects of man-made climate change and protracted conflict intensify rural-to-urban migration in many developing countries. This article examines the impacts of climate and conflict migration on urban environments and on migrants themselves. To trace the distinctive pathways by which climate change and conflict drive migration as well as shared challenges for urban planning and services, we employ qualitative case studies of Jordan, Pakistan, and Honduras informed by interviews and secondary literature. These countries are chosen as they exemplify the compounding, cumulative impacts of climate change and conflict on urban expansion and the challenges in providing adequate public services in these contexts. Across all three cases, climate hazards threaten rural livelihoods and agricultural productivity, increasing rural to urban migration, while civil conflict and gang violence further induce urban migration, both internally and across borders. In Jordan, we assess the impacts of increasing water scarcity and conflict-driven refugee flows on infrastructure and public services. Pakistan’s experience highlights the impacts of rapid-onset natural disasters, severe water scarcity, and enduring refugee flows from Afghanistan on environmental quality and pollution within cities. In Honduras, we analyze how increasing droughts and hurricanes, combined with gang presence in cities, affect migrants in terms of increased violence and negative physical and mental health impacts. Together, these cases illuminate the need for context-specific proactive policy measures that address the independent and interrelated ways that climate change and conflict lead to migration and the subsequent profound impacts on urban development and human well-being.