Climate Change Effects on Spatiotemporal Patterns of Hydroclimatological Summer Droughts in Norway

Wong, Wai Kwok; Beldring, Stein; Engen-Skaugen, Torill; Haddeland, Ingjerd; Hisdal, Hege

doi:10.1175/2011jhm1357.1

Cited by 68 publications

(52 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…Classical rainfall droughts, however, will become more severe due to lower summer flows in some regions, e.g. southern and eastern Norway (Feyen and Dankers, 2009;Wilson et al, 2010;Wong et al, 2011;Stahl et al, 2011), which is supported by this study, where the remain-ing droughts in the far future last 14-29 % longer and are 26-52 % more severe.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 81%

Future discharge drought across climate regions around the world modelled with a synthetic hydrological modelling approach forced by three general circulation models

Wanders

Lanen

2015

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Hydrological drought characteristics (drought in groundwater and streamflow) likely will change in the 21st century as a result of climate change. The magnitude and directionality of these changes and their dependency on climatology and catchment characteristics, however, is uncertain. In this study a conceptual hydrological model was forced by downscaled and bias-corrected outcome from three general circulation models for the SRES A2 emission scenario (GCM forced models), and the WATCH Forcing Data set (reference model). The threshold level method was applied to investigate drought occurrence, duration and severity. Results for the control period show that the drought characteristics of each GCM forced model reasonably agree with the reference model for most of the climate types, suggesting that the climate models' results after post-processing produce realistic outcomes for global drought analyses. For the near future (2021-2050) and far future (2071-2100) the GCM forced models show a decrease in drought occurrence for all major climates around the world and increase of both average drought duration and deficit volume of the remaining drought events. The largest decrease in hydrological drought occurrence is expected in cold (D) climates where global warming results in a decreased length of the snow season and an increased precipitation. In the dry (B) climates the smallest decrease in drought occurrence is expected to occur, which probably will lead to even more severe water scarcity. However, in the extreme climate regions (desert and polar), the drought analysis for the control period showed that projections of hydrological drought characteristics are most uncertain. On a global scale the increase in hydrological drought duration and severity in multiple regions will lead to a higher impact of drought events, which should motivate water resource managers to timely anticipate the increased risk of more severe drought in groundwater and streamflow and to design pro-active measures.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 81%

Future discharge drought across climate regions around the world modelled with a synthetic hydrological modelling approach forced by three general circulation models

Wanders

Lanen

2015

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Low-flow examples include De Wit et al (2007) for the Meuse, Hurkmans et al (2010) for the Rhine and Majone et al (2012) for the Gállego river in Spain. National studies include Wong et al (2011) in Norway, Prudhomme et al (2012) in the UK, Chauveau et al (2013) in France and Blöschl et al (2011) in Austria. The hydrological models used in these studies are often not specifically parameterised for low flows, which results in considerable uncertainties.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A three-pillar approach to assessing climate impacts on low flows

Laaha

Parajka

Viglione

et al. 2016

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The objective of this paper is to present a framework for assessing climate impacts on future low flows that combines different sources of information, termed pillars. To illustrate the framework three pillars are chosen: (a) extrapolation of observed low-flow trends into the future, (b) rainfall-runoff projections based on climate scenarios and (c) extrapolation of changing stochastic rainfall characteristics into the future combined with rainfall-runoff modelling. Alternative pillars could be included in the overall framework. The three pillars are combined by expert judgement based on a synoptic view of data, model outputs and process reasoning. The consistency/inconsistency between the pillars is considered an indicator of the certainty/uncertainty of the projections. The viability of the framework is illustrated for four example catchments from Austria that represent typical climate conditions in central Europe. In the Alpine region where winter low flows dominate, trend projections and climate scenarios yield consistently increasing low flows, although of different magnitudes. In the region north of the Alps, consistently small changes are projected by all methods. In the regions in the south and south-east, more pronounced and mostly decreasing trends are projected but there is disagreement in the magnitudes of the projected changes. The process reasons for the consistencies/inconsistencies are discussed. For an Alpine region such as Austria the key to understanding low flows is whether they are controlled by freezing and snowmelt processes, or by the summer moisture deficit associated with evaporation. It is argued that the three-pillar approach offers a systematic framework of combining different sources of information aimed at more robust projections than that obtained from each pillar alone.

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“…Smoothing of the hydrograph by applying a k-day moving average (Fleig et al, 2006;Wong et al, 2011) and implementing multiple threshold are commonly considered for the temporal analysis. A step forward in the analysis of spatial drought events is to explore the temporal and spatial sensitivity of applying different areal thresholds (in this study two cells).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this study the 80-percentile is selected (e.g. Hisdal et al, 2001;Andreadis et al, 2005;Tallaksen et al, 2009;Wong et al, 2011), meaning that subsurface runoff values are exceeded 80 % of the time. Although it is possible to think on more fuzzy bounds for the drought identification of a cell, this is not contemplated in this study.…”

Section: Drought Analysis In the Time Series Domain (Steps 1 And 2)mentioning

confidence: 99%

On the spatio-temporal analysis of hydrological droughts from global hydrological models

Corzo

Huijgevoort

Voß

et al. 2011

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The recent concerns for world-wide extreme events related to climate change have motivated the development of large scale models that simulate the global water cycle. In this context, analysis of hydrological extremes is important and requires the adaptation of identification methods used for river basin models. This paper presents two methodologies that extend the tools to analyze spatio-temporal drought development and characteristics using large scale gridded time series of hydrometeorological data. The methodologies are classified as non-contiguous and contiguous drought area analyses (i.e. NCDA and CDA). The NCDA presents time series of percentages of areas in drought at the global scale and for pre-defined regions of known hydroclimatology. The CDA is introduced as a complementary method that generates information on the spatial coherence of drought events at the global scale. Spatial drought events are found through CDA by clustering patterns (contiguous areas). In this study the global hydrological model WaterGAP was used to illustrate the methodology development. Global gridded time series of subsurface runoff (resolution 0.5 • ) simulated with the WaterGAP model from land points were used. The NCDA and CDA were developed to identify drought events in runoff. The percentages of area in drought calculated with both methods show complementary information on the spatial and temporal events for the last decades of the 20th century. The NCDA provides relevant information on the average number of droughts, duration and severity (deficit volume) for predefined regions (globe, 2 selected hydroclimatic regions). Additionally, the CDA provides information on the number

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Climate Change Effects on Spatiotemporal Patterns of Hydroclimatological Summer Droughts in Norway

Cited by 68 publications

References 35 publications

Future discharge drought across climate regions around the world modelled with a synthetic hydrological modelling approach forced by three general circulation models

Future discharge drought across climate regions around the world modelled with a synthetic hydrological modelling approach forced by three general circulation models

A three-pillar approach to assessing climate impacts on low flows

On the spatio-temporal analysis of hydrological droughts from global hydrological models

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