Climate change effects on vegetation in the Pacific Northwest: a review and synthesis of the scientific literature and simulation model projections

Peterson, David W.; Kerns, Becky K.; Dodson, Erich Kyle

doi:10.2737/pnw-gtr-900

Cited by 20 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 496 publications

(426 reference statements)

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“…While we have focused on interactions affecting existing Douglas-fir, altered disturbance regimes will likely impact co-existing tree species, forest regeneration and, consequently, the nature of future forests (Peterson et al 2014). Little is known about how biotic interactions with climate change will affect reproduction of other important tree species during or after disturbance in the Douglas-fir region.…”

Section: Will Climate Change Lead To Amplification Of Existing Biotic Disturbance Agents or Expansions Of Agents Currently Common In Dry mentioning

confidence: 99%

Interactions of predominant insects and diseases with climate change in Douglas-fir forests of western Oregon and Washington, U.S.A.

Agne

Beedlow

Shaw

et al. 2018

Forest Ecology and Management

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Forest disturbance regimes are beginning to show evidence of climate-mediated changes, such as increasing severity of droughts and insect outbreaks. We review the major insects and pathogens affecting the disturbance regime for coastal Douglas-fir forests in western Oregon and Washington State, USA, and ask how future climate changes may influence their role in disturbance ecology. Although the physiological constraints of light, temperature, and moisture largely control tree growth, episodic and chronic disturbances interacting with biological factors have substantial impacts on the structure and functioning of forest ecosystems in this region. Understanding insect and disease interactions is critical to predicting forest response to climate change and the consequences for ecosystem services, such as timber, clean water, fish and wildlife. We focused on future predictions for warmer wetter winters, hotter drier summers, and elevated atmospheric CO to hypothesize the response of Douglas-fir forests to the major insects and diseases influencing this forest type: Douglas-fir beetle, Swiss needle cast, black stain root disease, and laminated root rot. We hypothesize that 1) Douglas-fir beetle and black stain root disease could become more prevalent with increasing, fire, temperature stress, and moisture stress, 2) future impacts of Swiss needle cast are difficult to predict due to uncertainties in May-July leaf wetness, but warmer winters could contribute to intensification at higher elevations, and 3) laminated root rot will be influenced primarily by forest management, rather than climatic change. Furthermore, these biotic disturbance agents interact in complex ways that are poorly understood. Consequently, to inform management decisions, insect and disease influences on disturbance regimes must be characterized specifically by forest type and region in order to accurately capture these interactions in light of future climate-mediated changes.

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Section: Will Climate Change Lead To Amplification Of Existing Biotic Disturbance Agents or Expansions Of Agents Currently Common In Dry mentioning

confidence: 99%

Interactions of predominant insects and diseases with climate change in Douglas-fir forests of western Oregon and Washington, U.S.A.

Agne

Beedlow

Shaw

et al. 2018

Forest Ecology and Management

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“…Challenges remain: increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases and resultant climate change may expand the geographic extent and increase the frequency of large wildfires within the NSO range (Westerling et al 2006). Changing climates may also cause large shifts in forest species compositions (Peterson et al 2014), which will affect the suitability of forests for future nesting and roosting. And lastly, BOs are displacing NSOs from their historical territories at an increasing rate (Dugger et al, 2016) and may be forcing NSOs to use less suitable and more marginal habitat (Dugger et al 2011, Wiens et al 2014, Yackulic et al 2104).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The recovery of future NSO habitat may be affected by climate change that could alter the pattern and frequency of large wildfire within the NSO's range. Climate change is also expected to alter forest species composition within the Pacific Northwest by the end of the 21 st century (Peterson et al 2014). Subalpine forests are expected to recede in area while pine-dominated forests will likely expand.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Northwest Forest Plan—the first 20 years (1994-2013): status and trends of northern spotted owl habitats

Davis¹,

Hollen²,

Hobson³

et al. 2016

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In accordance with Federal civil rights law and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) civil rights regulations and policies, the USDA, its Agencies, offices, and employees, and institutions participating in or administering USDA programs are prohibited from discriminating based on race, color, national origin, religion, sex, gender identity (including gender expression), sexual orientation, disability, age, marital status, family/parental status, income derived from a public assistance program, political beliefs, or reprisal or retaliation for prior civil rights activity, in any program or activity conducted or funded by USDA (not all bases apply to all programs). Remedies and complaint filing deadlines vary by program or incident. Persons with disabilities who require alternative means of communication for program information (e.g., Braille, large print, audiotape, American Sign Language, etc.) should contact the responsible Agency or USDA's TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice and TTY) or contact USDA through the Federal Relay Service at (800) 877-8339. Additionally, program information may be made available in languages other than English. To file a program discrimination complaint, complete the USDA Program Discrimination

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“…Most process-based models support scientific understanding, and are often used for exploring potential responses under changing environmental conditions [62][63][64][65][66]. Basic sampling theory tells us that models based on observational data, such as statistical or machine learning models, are not suitable for the projection of future conditions, since the relationships and conditions that these observations represent are from the past, and these relationships and conditions are changing [67].…”

Section: The Current Carbon Modeling Continuummentioning

confidence: 99%

Information Needs of Next-Generation Forest Carbon Models: Opportunities for Remote Sensing Science

Boisvenue

White

2019

Remote Sensing

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Forests are integral to the global carbon cycle, and as a result, the accurate estimation of forest structure, biomass, and carbon are key research priorities for remote sensing science. However, estimating and understanding forest carbon and its spatiotemporal variations requires diverse knowledge from multiple research domains, none of which currently offer a complete understanding of forest carbon dynamics. New large-area forest information products derived from remotely sensed data provide unprecedented spatial and temporal information about our forests, which is information that is currently underutilized in forest carbon models. Our goal in this communication is to articulate the information needs of next-generation forest carbon models in order to enable the remote sensing community to realize the best and most useful application of its science, and perhaps also inspire increased collaboration across these research fields. While remote sensing science currently provides important contributions to large-scale forest carbon models, more coordinated efforts to integrate remotely sensed data into carbon models can aid in alleviating some of the main limitations of these models; namely, low sample sizes and poor spatial representation of field data, incomplete population sampling (i.e., managed forests exclusively), and an inadequate understanding of the processes that influence forest carbon accumulation and fluxes across spatiotemporal scales. By articulating the information needs of next-generation forest carbon models, we hope to bridge the knowledge gap between remote sensing experts and forest carbon modelers, and enable advances in large-area forest carbon modeling that will ultimately improve estimates of carbon stocks and fluxes.

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Climate change effects on vegetation in the Pacific Northwest: a review and synthesis of the scientific literature and simulation model projections

Cited by 20 publications

References 496 publications

Interactions of predominant insects and diseases with climate change in Douglas-fir forests of western Oregon and Washington, U.S.A.

Interactions of predominant insects and diseases with climate change in Douglas-fir forests of western Oregon and Washington, U.S.A.

Northwest Forest Plan—the first 20 years (1994-2013): status and trends of northern spotted owl habitats

Information Needs of Next-Generation Forest Carbon Models: Opportunities for Remote Sensing Science

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