Climate change impact assessment on the potential rubber cultivating area in the Greater Mekong Subregion

Abstract

In order to map potential shifts of rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) cultivation as a consequence of the ongoing climate change in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS), we applied rule-based classifications to a selection of nine gridded climatic data projections (precipitation and temperature, and global circulation models (GCMs)). These projections were used to form an ensemble model set covering the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at three future time sections: 2030, 2050 and 2070. We used a post classification ensemble formation technique based on a majority outcome of the classification to not only provide an ensemble projection but also to spatially track and weight the disagreements between the classified GCMs. A similar approach was used to form an ensemble model aggregating the involved climatic factors. The level of agreement between the ensemble projections and GCM products was assessed for each climatic factor separately, and also at the aggregate level. Shifting zones with high confidence were clustered based on their land use composition, physiographic attributes and proximity. Following the same ensemble formation technique and by setting a 28• C threshold for annual mean temperature, we mapped areas prone to exposure to potentially excessive heat levels. Almost the entire shift projected with high certainty was in the form of expansion, associated with temperature components of climate and temporally limited to the 2030 time window where the total area conducive to rubber cultivation in the GMS is projected to exceed 50% by 2030 (from 44.3% at the turn of the century). The largest detected cluster (41% of the total shifting area), which also is the most ecologically degraded, corresponds to Northern Vietnam and Guangxi Autonomous Region of China. The area exposed to potentially excessive heat is projected to undergo a 25-fold increase under RCP4.5 by 2030 from 14568 km 2 at the baseline.

Managing Uncertainty in Scots Pine Range-Wide Adaptation Under Climate Change

“…Varying classifications among GCMs constitute a useful measure of prediction uncertainty, whereas agreement among classifications suggests a greater likelihood of tree height increase. To our knowledge, such an approach has not been used to assess prediction certainty/uncertainty for tree species in boreal or temperate regions, although a similar method was used to determine the impact of climate extremes on a broad European range of environmental situations (Lung et al, 2013), and on climate change impact on a tropical rubber tree species (Hevea brasiliensis, Golbon et al, 2018). In addition to addressing such a dichotomous question as presence/absence or height increase/decrease, it is also important to evaluate a quantitative degree of uncertainty in the magnitude of tree height increase/decrease.…”

Optimal areas and climate change effects on dragon fruit cultivation in Mesoamerica

“…Furthermore, changes in climate will have important effects on the agricultural sector with potential implications for food security and production (Ciscar et al ., 2018). Thus, research is focusing on present and future climate changes for predicting suitable areas for cultivation of many important plants (Shabani and Kotey, 2016; Allbed et al ., 2017; Rasmussen et al ., 2017; Barrueto et al ., 2018; Golbon et al ., 2018; Raza et al ., 2018; Moatt et al ., 2019; Román-Figueroa et al ., 2019; Tshabalala et al ., 2019). When attempting to detect suitable areas for cultivating crops, during the decision-making process, information from different sources might use analytical hierarchical algorithms to rank significant variables in addition to climate variables (e.g.…”

True-to-type micropropagated plants of para rubber (Hevea brasiliensis Müll. Arg.) via somatic embryogenesis

“…Maximum consumption of natural rubber has been reported in the tires of automobiles, which utilizes ~70% of the total production, and its demand has been predicted to increase by 30 megatons per year by the year 2030 (Cornish, 2017). The para rubber planting area is rapidly expanding into the Montane Mainland Southeast Asia including Grate Mekong Subregion (China, Vietnam, Thailand, Laos, Myanmar and Cambodia) (Golbon et al, 2018;Yang et al, 2019) and Peninsular Malaysia (Hazir et al, 2020).…”