Climate change impact on extreme wave conditions in the North Sea: an ensemble study

Grabemann, Iris; Weisse, Ralf

doi:10.1007/s10236-008-0141-x

Cited by 151 publications

(103 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…This was also described by Groll et al (2014). Both Debernard and Røed (2008) and Grabemann and Weisse (2008) reported that model-induced uncertainties and inter-GCM variability are larger than the scenario-related uncertainties ( Fig. 6.7).…”

Section: Future Changes In Wavessupporting

confidence: 55%

“…The authors compared the results of the 30-year time slices for 1961-1990 (reference climate) and 2071-2100 (future climate) and found changes in the wave conditions for the four climate projections to vary in their spatial pattern and magnitude but that all agree in an increase of severe significant wave heights (99th percentiles) of 6-8 % along the North Sea east coast and in the Skagerrak. Grabemann and Weisse (2008) found comparable changes using a slightly different set of four climate projections, which incorporates two GCMs and SRES scenarios A2 and B2. Comparing the time slices 1961-1990 and 2071-2100 they estimated an increase in extreme wave height (99th percentile) in large parts of the southern and eastern North Sea of about 5-8 % (25-35 cm, average for the four projections).…”

Section: Future Changes In Wavesmentioning

confidence: 92%

“…In a comparative study of ten wave climate projections, including those by Grabemann and Weisse (2008) and Groll et al (2014) a robust signal was found for the eastern parts of the North Sea where mean and severe wave heights in nine to ten projections tended to increase towards the end of the 21st century (2071-2100). The magnitude of this increase is Fig.…”

Section: Future Changes In Wavesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Projected Change—North Sea

Schrum

Lowe

Meier

et al. 2016

North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment

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Increasing numbers of regional climate change scenario assessments have become available for the North Sea. A critical review of the regional studies has helped identify robust changes, challenges, uncertainties and specific recommendations for future research. Coherent findings from the climate change impact studies reviewed in this chapter include overall increases in sea level and ocean temperature, a freshening of the North Sea, an increase in ocean acidification and a decrease in primary production. However, findings from multi-model ensembles show the amplitude and spatial pattern of the projected changes in sea level, temperature, salinity and primary production are not consistent among the various regional projections and remain uncertain. Different approaches are used to downscale global climate change impacts, each with advantages and disadvantages. Regardless of the downscaling method employed, the regional studies are ultimately affected by the forcing global climate models. Projecting regional climate change impacts on biogeochemistry and primary production is currently limited by a lack of consistent downscaling approaches for marine and terrestrial impacts. Substantial natural variability in the North Sea region from annual to multi-decadal time scales is a particular challenge for projecting regional climate change impacts. Natural variability dominates long-term trends in wind fields and strongly wind-influenced characteristics like local sea level, storm C. Schrum

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Section: Future Changes In Wavessupporting

confidence: 55%

Section: Future Changes In Wavesmentioning

confidence: 92%

Section: Future Changes In Wavesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Projected Change—North Sea

Schrum

Lowe

Meier

et al. 2016

North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment

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“…For the coast of the Wadden Sea, Katsman et al (2011) estimate a regional sea level rise of 0.40-1.05 m by 2100. Additionally, the North Sea coastal areas are also exposed to significant and increasing storm events (Beniston et al, 2007;Grabemann and Weisse, 2008;Nicholls et al, 2007;Woth et al, 2005) and shifts in precipitation's scale and time (Beniston et al, 2007;Jacob et al, 2008;Spekat et al, 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Linking the ecosystem services approach to social preferences and needs in integrated coastal land use management – A planning approach

2014

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Coastal zones with their natural and societal sub-systems are exposed to rapid changes and pressures on resources. Scarcity of space and impacts of climate change are prominent drivers of land use and adaptation management today. Necessary modifications to present land use management strategies and schemes influence both the structures of coastal communities and the ecosystems involved. Approaches to identify the impacts and account for (i) the linkages between social preferences and needs and (ii) ecosystem services in coastal zones have been largely absent. The presented method focuses on improving the inclusion of ecosystem services in planning processes and clarifies the linkages with social impacts. In this study, fourteen stakeholders in decision-making on land use planning in the region of Krummhörn (northwestern Germany, southern North Sea coastal region) conducted a regional participative and informal process for local planning capable to adapt to climate driven changes. It is argued that scientific and practical implications of this integrated assessment focus on multi-functional options and contribute to more sustainable practices in future land use planning. The method operationalizes the ecosystem service approach and social impact analysis and demonstrates that social demands and provision of ecosystem services are inherently connected.

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“…The climate scenario is obviously important, and only two future scenarios are considered in this study. However, studies have demonstrated that the choice of climate model might contribute more to the overall uncertainty of the future wave climate than the climate scenarios themselves (Wang and Swail 2006;Grabemann and Weisse 2008;Grabemann et al 2015;Wang et al 2012Wang et al , 2014see also de Winter et al 2013). Future projections of waves are typically obtained using wind output from climate models as input to numerical wave models, and also the choice of wave model, the downscaling method and the model resolution will have a big impact on the results.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainties in extreme value modelling of wave data in a climate change perspective

Vanem

2015

J. Ocean Eng. Mar. Energy

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The extreme values of wave climate data are of great interest in a number of different applications, including the design and operation of ships and offshore structures, marine energy generation, aquaculture and coastal installations. Typically, the return values of certain met-ocean parameters such as significant wave height are of particular importance. In a climate change perspective, projections of such return values to a future climate are of great importance for risk management and adaptation purposes. However, there are various ways of estimating the required return values, which introduce additional uncertainties in extreme weather and climate variables pertaining to both current and future climates. Many of these approaches are investigated in this paper by applying different methods to particular data sets of significant wave height, corresponding to the historic climate and two future projections of the climate assuming different forcing scenarios. In this way, the uncertainty due to the extreme value analysis can also be compared to the uncertainty due to a changing climate. The different approaches that are considered in this paper are the initial distribution approach, the block maxima approach, the peak over threshold approach and the average conditional exceedance rate method. Furthermore, the effect of different modelling choices within each of the approaches will be explored. Thus, a range of different return value estimates for the different data sets is obtained. This exercise reveals that the uncertainty due to the extreme value analysis method is notable and, as expected, the variability of the estimates increases for higher return periods. Moreover, even though the variability due to the extreme value analysis is greater than the climate variability, a shift towards higher extremes in a future wave climate

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Climate change impact on extreme wave conditions in the North Sea: an ensemble study

Cited by 151 publications

References 22 publications

Projected Change—North Sea

Projected Change—North Sea

Linking the ecosystem services approach to social preferences and needs in integrated coastal land use management – A planning approach

Uncertainties in extreme value modelling of wave data in a climate change perspective

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