Climate change impact on photovoltaic power potential in China based on CMIP6 models

Niu, Jiayun; Qin, Wenmin; Wang, Lunche; Zhang, Ming; Wu, Jinyang; Zhang, Yujie

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159776

Cited by 37 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 70 publications

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“…The projection results in the present study could provide a reference for decision‐making with respect to the PV potential in the solar power industry. Solar PV power is expected to play a key role in the mitigation of fossil fuel use and climate change, thus contributing to curbing emissions and achieving carbon neutrality in China (Niu et al., 2023; Sweerts et al., 2019). However, the development of PV systems requires sensible planning.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…China is one of the world's largest energy consumers and agricultural producers (Niu et al., 2023; You et al., 2009). Considering that winter CDs in China exhibit a relatively high frequency and the strongest variability compared with the other three seasons (Yan et al., 2021), it is essential to investigate the variability of winter CDs in China.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The frequency of CDs greatly influences the solar photovoltaic (PV) power potential, which is considered an affordable, reliable, and modern energy source (Feron et al., 2021; Gil et al., 2019). For instance, changes in cloud cover and anthropogenic aerosol emissions resulted in an 11%–15% decrease in PV power potential between 1960 and 2015 (Niu et al., 2023; Sweerts et al., 2019). Additionally, CDs also have marked impacts on agriculture, transportation, and human mental health (Chen et al., 2014; Denissen et al., 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Winter Cloudy Days Will Diminish Over China Under Global Warming

Tan,

Zhu,

Miao

et al. 2023

Earth's Future

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Changes in winter cloudy days (CDs) exert substantial impacts on agricultural production, public transport, and the solar photovoltaic (PV) power industry. However, the physical mechanism behind the variability of winter CDs over China remains largely unclear, making it challenging to predict the future dynamics of winter CDs. In this study, we explored the spatiotemporal features of winter CDs over China from 1961 to 2013 and identified two independent formation mechanisms associated with its leading mode. Then, we projected the future changes (2021–2099) in winter CDs under global warming constrained by the identified formation mechanisms. Results revealed that: (a) The leading mode of winter CDs from 1961 to 2013 presents a homogeneous pattern. The positive winter CDs anomaly is connected to the anomalous southerlies related to the Eurasian Rossby wave train triggered by the Barents Sea thermal forcing, as well as the Asia‐Pacific zonal geopotential height gradient induced by the convection over the Maritime Continent; (b) Selected state‐of‐the‐art climate models project a notable decrease in winter CDs in the Tibetan Plateau and southern China regions, and almost unchanged winter CDs over northern China, under global warming; (c) In contrast to present‐day mechanisms, in the future, the shift of the Eurasian mean flow will terminate the role of the Barents Sea thermal forcing. Instead, the enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent emerges as the primary contributor to the decline in winter CDs. Our findings provide valuable insights for policymakers in the solar PV industry, particularly in relation to the challenges faced under global warming.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Winter Cloudy Days Will Diminish Over China Under Global Warming

Tan,

Zhu,

Miao

et al. 2023

Earth's Future

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“…However, these attempts are mostly conducted in the regional weather/climate models or land surface models instead of the global climate models (GCM). Although the uncertainty of the SSI simulated by the GCMs over the rugged areas have not been clearly revealed due to the lack of in situ observation in the previous studies (Hu et al., 2019; Markovic et al., 2008; Niu et al., 2023; Wang et al., 2022; Wild, 2008; Xu et al., 2022), the GCMs with the parallel‐plane radiative transfer scheme may share the problems in simulating the SSI over the rugged areas to the regional numerical models due to the absence of the STSRE.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Offline Correction of CMIP6 HighResMIP Simulated Surface Solar Irradiance With 3D Sub‐Grid Terrain Radiative Effects

Gu,

Huang,

et al. 2024

Geophysical Research Letters

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The surface solar irradiance (SSI) is crucial for the land‐atmosphere processes and remarkably affected by the topography over the rugged areas. However, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) HighResMIP models adopting the parallel‐plane radiative scheme without considering the sub‐grid terrain solar radiative effects (3DSTSRE) overestimate the SSI in the rugged areas and the overestimation increases with the sub‐grid terrain complexity. To reduce the biases of the SSI simulations, this study offline corrects the SSI simulations of CMIP6 HighResMIP models by a 3DSTSRE scheme. Results show that the SSI biases produced by the HighResMIP models in the rugged regions can be significantly reduced by adopting the 3DSTSRE offline correction, and the improvements increase with the sub‐grid terrain complexity, indicating that considering the 3DSTSRE in the climate models to improve the SSI simulations over rugged areas is necessary.

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“…He et al (2023) found that the annual mean PV power potential in China during 2050-2069 for SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios are 44.3, 43.6, and 43.3 TWyear −1 , respectively, using CMIP6 multi-model ensemble data. Niu et al (2023) quantified the PV power potential under 8 SSP-RCP scenarios and found that the PV power potential would decreases obviously in the SSP585 scenario from 2023 (192.71 Wm −2 ) to 2100 (189.96 Wm −2 ). In contrast, the PV power potential would increase (1.36-5.90 Wm −2 ) in low mitigation pressure scenario.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projection of future carbon benefits by photovoltaic power potential in China using CMIP6 statistical downscaling data

Niu,

Wu,

Qin

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Solar photovoltaic (PV) systems is an affordable solution that significantly contribute to climate adaptation and resilience, energy security and greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement with respect to fossil fuel electricity generation. Currently, available studies on the benefits of photovoltaic power generation only consider the electricity consumption and do not account for the possible future benefits from carbon trading under the combined impacts of pollution emissions and socio-economic. In this study, the downscaling and bias correction were applied to the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model mean data based on the historical data from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) stations. The corrected measurements of meteorology were used to explore the PV power potential and the environmental and economic benefits offset by solar power generation under SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585 in China during 2023-2100. We found that the annual mean PV power potential across mainland China ranged from 1-37 Wm-2 and demonstrated a decreasing trend in the Northwest China and an increasing trend in the Southeast China. Compared to thermal power generation, electricity from solar energy will counteract the total emissions of annual mean 139.54×105 t CO2, 1702 t SO2, 2562 t NOX and 3710 t dust in China in SSP126 scenario. The results of variable importance assessment showed that the coal price (44.46%), WTI crude oil price (42.17 %), natural gas price (6.17 %) and GDP (3.17 %) contribute the most to the carbon emissions allowances (CEA) price. Against a “carbon peak” background in China, the CEA price will reach 80 CNY/t CO2 by 2030 in China, with the carbon trading value potential ranging from 20 billion to 200 billion CNY of each pixel (10 km×10 km) by 2030. This study would have important implications for the environmental construction and future investment and construction of PV systems in China.

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Climate change impact on photovoltaic power potential in China based on CMIP6 models

Cited by 37 publications

References 70 publications

Winter Cloudy Days Will Diminish Over China Under Global Warming

Winter Cloudy Days Will Diminish Over China Under Global Warming

Offline Correction of CMIP6 HighResMIP Simulated Surface Solar Irradiance With 3D Sub‐Grid Terrain Radiative Effects

Projection of future carbon benefits by photovoltaic power potential in China using CMIP6 statistical downscaling data

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