Climate change impacts across a large forest enterprise in the Northern Pre-Alps: dynamic forest modelling as a tool for decision support

Thrippleton, Timothy; Lüscher, Felix; Bugmann, Harald

doi:10.1007/s10342-020-01263-x

Cited by 32 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 72 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Since the landslide indicator is directly linked to canopy cover (Blattert et al, 2017;Irauschek et al, 2017), an increasing timber use led to a slight decrease in average canopy cover, which explained the negative relationship. Studies focusing on the longer-term relationship between forest development and protection against rockfall or avalanches however emphasize the importance of natural regeneration fostered by close-to-nature management in Swiss mountain forests (Frehner et al, 2005;Thrippleton et al, 2020).…”

Section: Synergies and Trade-offs Between Bes Under Present Climate Conditionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These large-scale patterns of climate change impacts can however be significantly modified by smaller-scale environmental heterogeneity, e.g., due to the effect of aspect, slope or orographic rainfall (Whiteman, 2000;Zou et al, 2007). Climate change impacts at the forest enterprise level can consequently be complex and site-specific, particularly in mountainous areas (Mina et al, 2017;Thrippleton et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

A Multi-Criteria Decision Support System for Strategic Planning at the Swiss Forest Enterprise Level: Coping With Climate Change and Shifting Demands in Ecosystem Service Provisioning

Thrippleton

Blattert

Bont

et al. 2021

Front. For. Glob. Change

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Sustainable forest management plays a key role for forest biodiversity and the provisioning of ecosystem services (BES), including the important service of carbon sequestration for climate change mitigation. Forest managers, however, find themselves in the increasingly complex planning situation to balance the often conflicting demands in BES. To cope with this situation, a prototype of a decision support system (DSS) for strategic (long-term) planning at the forest enterprise level was developed in the present project. The DSS was applied at three case study enterprises (CSEs) in Northern Switzerland, two lowland and one higher-elevation enterprise, for a 50-year time horizon (2010 to 2060) under present climate and three climate change scenarios (‘wet’, ‘medium’, ‘dry’). BES provisioning (for biodiversity, timber production, recreation, protection against gravitational hazards and carbon sequestration) was evaluated for four management scenarios (no management, current (BAU), lower and higher management intensity) using a utility-based multi-criteria decision analysis. Additionally, four alternative preference scenarios for BES provisioning were investigated to evaluate the robustness of the results to shifting BES preferences. At all CSEs, synergies between carbon sequestration, biodiversity and protection function as well as trade-offs between carbon sequestration and timber production occurred. The BAU management resulted in the highest overall utility in 2060 for different climate and BES preference scenarios, with the exception of one lowland CSE under current BES preference, where a lower intensity management performed best. Although climate change had a relatively small effect on overall utility, individual BES indicators showed a negative climate change impact for the lowland CSEs and a positive effect for the higher elevation CSE. The patterns of overall utility were relatively stable to shifts in BES preferences, with exception of a shift toward a preference for carbon sequestration. Overall, the study demonstrates the potential of the DSS to investigate the development of multiple BES as well as their synergies and trade-offs for a set of lowland and mountainous forest enterprises. The new system incorporates a wide set of BES indicators, a strong empirical foundation and a flexible multi-criteria decision analysis, enabling stakeholders to take scientifically well-founded decisions under changing climatic conditions and political goals.

show abstract

Section: Synergies and Trade-offs Between Bes Under Present Climate Conditionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Multi-Criteria Decision Support System for Strategic Planning at the Swiss Forest Enterprise Level: Coping With Climate Change and Shifting Demands in Ecosystem Service Provisioning

Thrippleton

Blattert

Bont

et al. 2021

Front. For. Glob. Change

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…For strata located at high elevations (i.e., within or above the high-montane elevation zone), a mountain forest plentering was applied (group selection; cf. Thrippleton et al 2020a). At lower elevations, uneven-aged strata were managed according to an individual tree plentering (single-tree selection; Rasche et al 2011).…”

Section: Forest Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stand‐scale climate change impacts on forests over large areas: transient responses and projection uncertainties

Huber

Bugmann

Cailleret

et al. 2021

Ecological Applications

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…loss of timber) and ecosystem service implications (e.g. loss of protection function; Thrippleton, Lüscher, & Bugmann, 2020). However, such a break-down (e.g.…”

Section: Con Clus Ionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Competition and demography rather than dispersal limitation slow down upward shifts of trees’ upper elevation limits in the Alps

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

1. Species range limits are expected to be dramatically altered under future climate change and many species are predicted to shift their distribution upslope to track their suitable conditions (i.e. based on their niche). However, there might be large discrepancies between the speed of the upward shift of the climatic niche and the actual migration velocity of the species, especially in long-lived organisms such as trees. In fact, most studies did not find any significant upward shift of the distributional limits of temperate forest trees over the last decades. It therefore beckons the questions why trees are moving upslope much slower than their bioclimatic envelope and what are the implications for ecosystem functioning. 2. Here, we compared the simulations of the upslope displacement of the bioclimatic envelope of 16 tree species inhabiting temperate mountain forests under ongoing and future climate change obtained by correlative species distribution models (SDMs) to those from a dynamic forest model accounting for dispersal, competition and demography. We then partitioned the discrepancy in upslope migration velocity between the SDMs and the dynamic forest model into different components by manipulating dispersal limitation, interspecific competition and demography. 3. Tree species in the dynamic forest model migrated only slowly upslope in contrast to the SDMs. Most of the difference in migration velocity can directly be attributed to tree's demography (long life cycle), followed by effects of competition and only a marginal contribution of dispersal limitation. Additionally, lower elevation species ('non-treeline') shifted slower upslope than high elevation species ('treeline') indicating a strong effect of interspecific competition at their leading edge. 4. Synthesis. Forests have a high inertia to climate change because of their longevity and ability to acclimatize to high climatic fluctuations. Lower elevation tree species (deciduous) only slowly establish in stands at higher elevation where coniferous species dominate and likely profit from facilitation by disturbance events. Therefore, forest ecosystems seem to persist, even if climate becomes unfavourable, until they approach a tipping point at which an extreme event (e.g. drought, | 2417

show abstract

Climate change impacts across a large forest enterprise in the Northern Pre-Alps: dynamic forest modelling as a tool for decision support

Cited by 32 publications

References 72 publications

A Multi-Criteria Decision Support System for Strategic Planning at the Swiss Forest Enterprise Level: Coping With Climate Change and Shifting Demands in Ecosystem Service Provisioning

A Multi-Criteria Decision Support System for Strategic Planning at the Swiss Forest Enterprise Level: Coping With Climate Change and Shifting Demands in Ecosystem Service Provisioning

Stand‐scale climate change impacts on forests over large areas: transient responses and projection uncertainties

Competition and demography rather than dispersal limitation slow down upward shifts of trees’ upper elevation limits in the Alps

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About