Climate Change, Impacts, Adaptation and Risk Management

Abstract

Under the moderate future greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP4.5), climate model simulations project that the annual mean temperature will increase in Europe by up to 2–3 °C by the middle of this century, compared to the end of the nineteenth century. The temperature increase is projected to be larger in Northern Europe than in Central and Southern Europe. The annual precipitation is projected to decrease in Southern Europe and increase in Northern and Central Europe. The projected changes in temperature and precipitation are expected to be higher in the winter than in the summer months. In Northern Europe, forest growth is generally projected to increase due to warmer and longer growing seasons. In southern Europe in particular, warmer and dryer summers are projected to decrease forest growth. Climate change is expected also to expose forests and forestry to multiple abiotic and biotic risks throughout Europe. The greatest abiotic risks to forests are caused by windstorms, drought, forest fires and extreme snow loading on trees. The warmer climate will also increase biotic risks to forests, such as damage caused by European spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus) outbreaks in Norway spruce (Picea abies) forests and wood decay by Heterobasidion spp. root rot in Norway spruce and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) forests. Different adaptation and risk management actions may be needed, depending on geographical region and time span, in order to maintain forest resilience, which is also important for climate change mitigation.

Enhanced trends in spectral greening and climate anomalies across Europe

“…Climate change is affecting vegetation growth behaviour depending on the geographical location with generally positive trends in Northern Europe and negative trends in Southern Europe. Particularly, Northern Europe experiences a trend towards longer growing seasons, triggered by increasing temperatures, longer summer duration, and rising CO 2 concentrations (Hyvönen et al, 2007 ; Venäläinen et al, 2022 ). Southern Europe, however, is expected to increasing dry-up processes and enhancing wildfire and erosion vulnerability, which accounts for severe and large-scale ecosystem disturbances (Górriz-Mifsud et al, 2022 ).…”

“…All three temperature variables (T(air), T(surf), and T(soil)) included in the analyses show a strong increase in annual trends with T(air) exceeding T(surf) and T(soil). Interannual variability is largest during DJF and MAM with a particular temperature increase during the winter months, affecting particularly the eastern and northern parts of the continent (Venäläinen et al, 2022 ). During the summer months (JJA), Southern Europe and particularly the Mediterranean are affected by a strong increase in T(air) and T(surf) (Vogel et al, 2021 ).…”

“…These southern summer drying-up trends are contrasted by the intensification of soil moisture especially during the early growing season and the winter months in large parts of Eastern Europe. However, precipitation increase is assumed to be compensated by increasing evapotranspiration, particularly enhancing summer drought risk (Venäläinen et al, 2022 ). Synchronously, a strong increase in snowfall flux (snow precipitation rate) and a general increase in rainfall (rain precipitation rate) can be observed during MAM and DJF, affecting both the eastern European countries and large parts of Central Europe.…”

“…High temperatures paired with increasing soil moisture prolong the growing season in the high latitudes, which in turn amplifies the risk for windfall during storm season, bark beetle infections, and forest decline (Müller et al, 2008 ; Schelhaas et al, 2003 ; Venäläinen et al, 2022 ). Regional vegetation declined as a response to local climate change feedbacks, persistent drought periods, windthrow damage, and the subsequent impact of the massive spread of, for example, Ips typographus L. (Anderegg et al, 2013 ; Hlásny et al, 2021a , b ).…”

Keep Cool in a Changing Climate: An Integrated Modelling Procedure to Identify Cost-Effective, Spatially Differentiated Land-use and Land-cover Measures to Mitigate Rising Temperature in Rural Landscapes

“…However, in temperate climate zones increasing temperatures may also negatively impact rural landscapes. Negative consequences may manifest in increasing uctuations and reduced yields in agriculture (Challinor et al 2014, Mahato 2014, Jägermeyr et al 2021) and forestry (Fuhrer et al 2006, Seidl et al 2017, Venäläinen et al 2022). Higher temperatures increase soil moisture stress and accelerate microbial processes in soils, which trigger the leaching of nutrients and the degeneration of soils (Gelybó et al 2018, Jansson & Hofmockel, 2020.…”