Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation for Crop Management of Winter Wheat and Maize in the Semi‐arid Region of Iran

Abstract

Climate change is expected to lead to declining crop yields in semi‐arid regions due to higher temperatures and more severe droughts, which calls for adaptations in crop management. We used the WOFOST and AquaCrop crop simulation models to examine the response of crop yield in winter wheat and maize to a set of climate change scenarios up to 2040 in the semi‐arid climate of Mashhad in north‐east Iran. Modelled climate change from six AOGCMs including GFCM21, HADCM3, INCM3, IPCM4, MPEH5 and NCCCSM under IPCC SRES A2 and B1 emission scenarios was used. The crop models were calibrated and validated against 7 years of observed crop yield data, confirming that the models adequately simulated yields of wheat and maize in the study area. The bootstrap method was used to estimate the uncertainty of crop yield projections. The results showed a mean yield decrease of 10–34% for winter wheat and 8–18% for maize, depending on the crop model and climate change scenario. The period of flowering to maturity of winter wheat and maize would be shortened on average by 9 and 5 days, respectively. Changes in crop management were considered for adaptation to climate change. Simulation results indicated that early sowing of winter wheat and late sowing of maize enhanced yield and water productivity across all climate change scenarios and that late‐maturity cultivars of winter wheat and early‐maturity hybrids of maize generally have higher productivity than standard cultivars. Increasing heat tolerance of the crops and changing irrigation management of winter wheat were also found to be beneficial adaptation options. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Sugar Beet Agronomic Performance Evolution in NW Spain in Future Scenarios of Climate Change

“…To sum up, for the studied variables (annual ET 0 , monthly ETc, yield, biomass and CO 2 assimilation), the trends predicted in this work would match in a regional scale what other studies have observed: A northward movement of crop suitability zones, as well as increased crop productivity in Northern Europe [69]. Furthermore, the simulations suggest that there is a greater potential for adaptation in northern, cooler zones, in which the reduction in yields can be compensated by shifting the crop growing season to cooler months [30], by advancing sowing, and by taking advantage of an extended growing period through the use of suitable varieties [70].…”

“…crop, the region and the chosen adaptation strategies, such as matching crops to soils [29]. Other strategies such as shifting the sowing date, changing the required cultivar growth duration, the development of heat tolerant plants may have to be adopted depending on the location and crop, as noted by Khordadi et al [30]. Concerning the study presented herein, an important point that should be taken into consideration is that the yield simulations generated by the model in 2050 and 2070 involve changes in the crop cultivation period.…”

“…Moreover, a shorter crop cycle may result in a reduction of attainable yield [30,61] or in a yield increment [31,59] depending on the crop, the region and the chosen adaptation strategies, such as matching crops to soils [29]. Other strategies such as shifting the sowing date, changing the required cultivar growth duration, the development of heat tolerant plants may have to be adopted depending on the location and crop, as noted by Khordadi et al [30].…”

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“…Contrary to the need to increase food production, some researchers have warned that climate change may reduce global food production in the coming decades. Climate change will positively or negatively affect the yields of crops grown commercially in the many regions of the world where they are produced, depending on the severity and type of these changes [11][12][13][14][15][16][17]. Future climate change, associated with land use change and population growth, will put global food security at risk and increase malnutrition, especially in lessdeveloped countries [18].…”

Impacts of climate variability on growth and variability of agricultural productivity: a review

“…Another main agricultural challenge is increasing agricultural yield and decreasing agricultural greenhouse gas (Headey et al 2010). With the increase in the population globally, the agricultural system needs to raise its production capacity (Isik and Devadoss 2006;Khordadi et al 2019). These subsequent pusses the excessive use of pesticides and fertilizers, and other resources to increase agricultural greenhouse gas emissions (Molua 2009;Yu et al 2018).…”