Climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for a hydro-dominated power system via stochastic optimization

Guerra, Omar J.; Tejada, Diego A.; Reklaitis, Gintaras V.

doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.10.045

Cited by 46 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 100 publications

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“…Furthermore, according to another study, during the 2015 to 2029 period, the hydropower production capacity in Colombia would decrease by 5.5-17.1% due to climate change if an increase in temperature and precipitation was simulated at 0.5 °C [37].…”

Section: Colombiamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Hydropower Development in Three South American Countries: Brazil, Colombia, and Ecuador

Naranjo-Silva

Punina-Guerrero

Barros-Enriquez

et al. 2023

IJEE

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The present manuscript aims to identify the advantages and consequences of hydropower development, showing a view of trends finding the status and situation in Brazil, Colombia, and Ecuador. This study uses a non-experimental methodology based on a comprehensive literature review of relevant papers retrieved from 41 selected papers that are summarized covering different application areas in these selected countries. In addition, the non-experimental methodology is guided by a perspective design sequential with a qualitative phase defining two indicators that do a relation between the people and the installed capacity in megawatts (MW) and energy production in gigawatts hour (GWh). The results show Colombia has the main installed capacity and energy generation per capita, followed by Ecuador, and finally, Brazil. According to the models and studies, the general hydropower potential of Brazil, Colombia, and Ecuador decreases as time goes on because this renewable energy affects the water quality, interacting deeply with the surrounding environment. However, in South American countries only 34% of hydropower potential has developed.

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Section: Colombiamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In Ecuador eight hydropower projects cost nearly USD 6 billion between 2007 and 2015, which led to the country doubling its electricity production capacity [39]. International Hydropower Association data shows that Ecuador's hydropower capacity grew by 1.3 percent in 2016, behind only China and Brazil [37].…”

Section: Ecuadormentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydropower Development in Three South American Countries: Brazil, Colombia, and Ecuador

Naranjo-Silva

Punina-Guerrero

Barros-Enriquez

et al. 2023

IJEE

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show abstract

“…Guerra et al 31 investigated the impacts of climate change on hydropower system generation. The results explained that throughout the years 2015 to 2029, climate change possibly decrease the hydropower generation potential by 17.5%-1.5%.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting hydropower generation byGFDL‐CM3climate model and hybrid hydrological‐Elman neural network model based on Improved Sparrow Search Algorithm (ISSA)

Wang

Gholinia

2021

Concurrency and Computation

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One of the most sensitive factors affecting hydropower generation is climate change.The objective of this study is to forecast the hydropower generation under the influence of climate change for the next 50 years. For this purpose, the GFDL-CM3 model is used under three scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 to predict precipitation and temperature. Any change in the inlet flow to the turbine will cause changes in the hydropower output. Therefore, the more accurately the flow is estimated, the hydropower generation is forecasted more accurately. In this research, a hydrological-neural network hybrid model for flow prediction is presented in which the Improved Sparrow Search Algorithm (ISSA) has been used. The results forecasting climate parameters showed that the average annual rainfall, runoff, and evaporation have a downward trend compared to the control period. The minimum and maximum annual temperatures have an increasing trend compared to the control period. To evaluate the hydropower generation Aras dam, the HEC-Ressim reservoir model is utilized. By comparing the average annual hydropower with the control period, it is known that the power generation will decrease in future years. The average annual electricity generated by hydropower under the scenario RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 and RCP8.

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“…In different studies, various models are presented to model these uncertainties such as robust optimization [15][16][17], stochastic programming [18][19][20], and the information gap decision theory (IGDT) approach [21]. These methods only model and analyze the volatilities, and in the real world we need proper solutions to handle such issues.…”

Section: Features Of Wind Farm Forecast Errorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scheduling of Air Conditioning and Thermal Energy Storage Systems Considering Demand Response Programs

et al. 2020

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The high penetration rate of renewable energy sources (RESs) in smart energy systems has both threat and opportunity consequences. On the positive side, it is inevitable that RESs are beneficial with respect to conventional energy resources from the environmental aspects. On the negative side, the RESs are a great source of uncertainty, which will make challenges for the system operators to cope with. To tackle the issues of the negative side, there are several methods to deal with intermittent RESs, such as electrical and thermal energy storage systems (TESSs). In fact, pairing RESs to electrical energy storage systems (ESSs) has favorable economic opportunities for the facility owners and power grid operators (PGO), simultaneously. Moreover, the application of demand-side management approaches, such as demand response programs (DRPs) on flexible loads, specifically thermal loads, is an effective solution through the system operation. To this end, in this work, an air conditioning system (A/C system) with a TESS has been studied as a way of volatility compensation of the wind farm forecast-errors (WFFEs). Additionally, the WFFEs are investigated from multiple visions to assist the dispatch of the storage facilities. The operation design is presented for the A/C systems in both day-ahead and real-time operations based on the specifications of WFFEs. Analyzing the output results, the main aims of the work, in terms of applying DRPs and make-up of WFFEs to the scheduling of A/C system and TESS, will be evaluated. The dispatched cooling and base loads show the superiority of the proposed method, which has a smoother curve compared to the original curve. Further, the WFFEs application has proved and demonstrated a way better function than the other uncertainty management techniques by committing and compensating the forecast errors of cooling loads.

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Climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for a hydro-dominated power system via stochastic optimization

Cited by 46 publications

References 100 publications

Hydropower Development in Three South American Countries: Brazil, Colombia, and Ecuador

Hydropower Development in Three South American Countries: Brazil, Colombia, and Ecuador

Forecasting hydropower generation byGFDL‐CM3climate model and hybrid hydrological‐Elman neural network model based on Improved Sparrow Search Algorithm (ISSA)

Scheduling of Air Conditioning and Thermal Energy Storage Systems Considering Demand Response Programs

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