Climate change impacts on banana yields around the world

Abstract

Nutritional diversity is a key element of food security 1-3 . However, research on the effects of climate change on food security has, thus far, focussed on the major food grains [4][5][6][7][8] , while the response of other crops, particularly those that play an important role in the developing world, are poorly understood. Bananas are a staple food and a major export commodity for many tropical nations 9 . Here we show that for 27 countries -accounting for 86% of global dessert banana production -a changing climate since 1961 has increased yields by an average of 1.37 T.ha -1 . While past gains have been largely ubiquitous across the countries assessed, African producers will continue to see yield increases into the future. Moreover, global yield gains could be dampened or disappear in the future, reducing to 0.59 T.ha -1 and 0.19 T.ha -1 by 2050 under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios, respectively, driven by declining yields amongst the largest producers and exporters. By quantifying climate-driven and technologydriven influences on yield, we also identify countries at risk from climate change and those capable of mitigating its effects, or capitalising on its benefits.Bananas are widely cultivated in tropical and sub-tropical regions around the world, where they can provide a substantial proportion of affordable calories, dietary diversity and income [9][10][11] . Bananas are also ubiquitous in their availability in non-producing regions through international trade, which accounts for 15% of global production 12 . This international trade supplements nutritional diversity in non-producing countries, while making a large contribution to local and national economies in producing countries. For example, bananas and their derived products constitute the second largest agricultural export commodity of Ecuador and Costa Rica 13 . Globally, bananas (together with plantains) are amongst the top ten crops in terms of area of cultivation, yield and calories produced 10 . Given the importance of this crop for subsistence and trade, it is surprising how poorly represented bananas are in global assessments of climate change impacts on food and nutritional security 4-6 .

Mapping the impacts of hurricanes Maria and Irma on banana production area in the Dominican Republic

“…Bananas are one of the most extensively cultivated crops in the world (FAOSTAT, 2020). Like any other commercially cultivated crop, banana production also faces challenges from multiple stressors, apart from extreme weather events, such as longer-term climate shifts, pests and diseases (Ramirez, Jarvis, Van den Bergh, Staver, & Turner, 2011; Ordonez et al, 2015; Bebber, 2019; García-Bastidas et al, 2019; Varma & Bebber, 2019). Assessing risk from these stresses, measuring impacts, as well as monitoring rates of recovery, and effectiveness of mitigation measures require detailed information on plantation distribution.…”

Banana Biomass Estimation and Yield Forecasting from Non-Destructive Measurements for Two Contrasting Cultivars and Water Regimes

“…Total precipitation received during the experiment was about 903 mm year −1 for HG, and 913 mm year −1 for GN, lower than those for optimal banana production (1100-2650 mm year −1 ) and not evenly spread (dry spells of more than two months) ( Figure 1a) implying the need for irrigation [19,28,29]. in the upper 60 cm of the soil under two irrigation regimes (FI: full irrigation noted in blue, and RF: rainfed noted in orange).…”

Unlocking the inherent potential of plant genetic resources: food security and climate adaptation strategy in Fiji and the Pacific

“…With a strong focus on developing disease-resistant cultivars in most banana-breeding programmes, evolving drought-resistant varieties has so far been inadequate (Ravi et al 2013 ). A recent study by Varma and Bebber ( 2019 ) on climate-yield relationships in banana observed that climate change in the recent past has been favourable for banana cultivation with an average global yield increase of 1.37 tha −1 since 1961, though yield gains would disappear in the future reducing by 2050 to 0.59 tha −1 and 0.19 tha −1 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 respectively. Among the leaf diseases of banana, the most devastating is BLSD caused by the fungal pathogen Pseudocercospora fijiensis which thrives in warm and moist conditions that are also ideal for banana production (Bebber 2019 ).…”