Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Flows Under IPCC RCP Scenarios in the Mountainous Kaidu Watershed, Tarim River Basin

Huang, Yanyan; Ma, Yonggang; Li, Shipeng; Luo, Min

doi:10.3390/su12052090

Cited by 20 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…The characteristics of hydro-climatic changes in the Tarim River Basin were analyzed using data collected at 39 weather stations and 29 hydrological stations for the periods 1961-2008 and 1952-2008. Changes were explained by anthropogenic activities and climate change [19], and the hydrological response to climate change under the average of four RCPs showed a decline of 21.5-40% in annual average runoff [20]. During the past 50 years, runoff has decreased in most river basins in China.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Surface Water Availability under Climate Change Using Coupled SWAT-WEAP in Hongshui River Basin, China

Touseef

Chen

Yang

2021

IJGI

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Climate change adversely affects the hydrological cycle at the basin level. This study integrated two models, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for future climate prediction, and Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) for the simulation of water quantity in the Hongshui River Basin (HRB), to evaluate the impacts of climate change, which plays a significant role in the lives of inhabitants downstream of the basin. Downscaled monthly rainfalls and temperatures under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) emission scenarios from five global circulation models (GCMs) were used to generate streamflow using the SWAT model. Streamflow data (1991–2001) were used to calibrate and validate, with the period of 1991–1997 used for calibration and that of 1998–2001 used for validation. Six scenarios were established to evaluate the response of the basin under socio-economic scenarios. The simulated results show that precipitation and streamflow would likely undergo a slight increase. The available water resources would be sufficient to meet the existing needs until 2050. The results indicated that no water shortages exist under socio-economic, low, and medium climate change emission scenarios, however the basin will experience a water shortage under the high climate change emission scenario (RCP-8.5). The study proposed that, to ensure the sustainability of water resources, better long-term management policies are required to be implemented in the basin and to meet future downstream water needs.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Surface Water Availability under Climate Change Using Coupled SWAT-WEAP in Hongshui River Basin, China

Touseef

Chen

Yang

2021

IJGI

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“…The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has projected heavy precipitation leading to flooding in most regions of Africa and Asia (with high confidence), North America (medium to high confidence), and Europe (medium confidence) with an increase in global temperature by 1.5–2°C (IPCC, 2021). A considerable number of studies on the impact of climate change (CC) on river hydrology predict that the flood peaks and frequency are likely to increase in the future with varying magnitudes in different parts of the globe (Devkota & Gyawali, 2015; Gosling et al, 2017; Hettiarachchi et al, 2018; Hirabayashi et al, 2013; Huang et al, 2020; Lane & Kay, 2021; Lutz, ter Maat, et al, 2016; Marahatta, Aryal, et al, 2021; Pandey et al, 2020; Tabari, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Questioning the use of ensembles versus individual climate model generated flows in future peak flood predictions: Plausibility and implications

Devkota,

Bhattarai,

Devkota

et al. 2024

J Flood Risk Management

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Accurate estimation of design floods is necessary for developing effective flood‐management strategies. Climate change (CC) studies on floods generally consider alterations in mean runoff using ensembles compared to a base period. In this study, we examined the plausibility and implications of applying individual climate model‐generated flows versus their ensembles to estimate peak floods (magnitude and timing of occurrence), using Budhigandaki River Basin of Nepal as a case study. Annual maximum one‐day floods were derived for four future climate scenario projections (cold‐dry, cold‐wet, warm‐wet, and warm‐dry) from simulated daily flow series. Future floods of six return periods estimated for the individual climate scenarios were compared with their “Ensemble” (combiner for the ensemble series is the arithmetic mean of daily floods), “Average,” and ‘Baseline.” Results showed that magnitudes of the flood peaks are such that those estimated using “Ensemble” < “Average” < individual series. We conclude that ensemble series should not be used for flood estimation because of the averaging effect. Designers should consider at the least the “Average” instead of the “Ensemble” series while designing climate‐resilient flood structures. Furthermore, the occurrences of flood peaks are likely to be confined within the monsoon season for the “Ensemble” but spread out in the other months for the individual climate scenarios. This could have direct implications on the availability and mobilization of resources as well as the need for a year‐round operational early warning system for flood risk management.

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“…In the current management of water resources, hydrological models play a vital role [24]. By integrating the anticipated future scenarios based on downscaled global climate model (GCM) data into hydrological models, the hydrological effects of climate change at the basin scale can be assessed [25]. Various hydrological models-including the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), variable infiltration capacity (VIC), and MIKE SHE-have been applied to support the assessment of the impact of climate change on water resources under various environmental conditions and management techniques.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Various hydrological models-including the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), variable infiltration capacity (VIC), and MIKE SHE-have been applied to support the assessment of the impact of climate change on water resources under various environmental conditions and management techniques. With the advantage of having a lower number of input parameters compared to other modeling approaches, the SWAT is among the most popular models applied, and has proven its satisfactory accuracy in simulating the impact of climate change on different hydrological processes, in both long and short periods, under different climatic and soil conditions [25][26][27].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Climate Change Impact on the Nyabugogo Catchment Water Balance in Rwanda

Umugwaneza

Chen

Liu

et al. 2021

Water

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Droughts and floods are common in tropical regions, including Rwanda, and are likely to be aggravated by climate change. Consequently, assessing the effects of climate change on hydrological systems has become critical. The goal of this study is to analyze the impact of climate change on the water balance in the Nyabugogo catchment by downscaling 10 global climate models (GCMs) from CMIP6 using the inverse distance weighting (IDW) method. To apply climate change signals under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (low and high emission) scenarios, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used. For the baseline scenario, the period 1950–2014 was employed, whereas the periods 2020–2050 and 2050–2100 were used for future scenario analysis. The streamflow was projected to decrease by 7.2 and 3.49% under SSP126 in the 2020–2050 and 2050–2100 periods, respectively; under SSP585, it showed a 3.26% increase in 2020–2050 and a 4.53% decrease in 2050–2100. The average annual surface runoff was projected to decrease by 11.66 (4.40)% under SSP126 in the 2020–2050 (2050–2100) period, while an increase of 3.25% in 2020–2050 and a decline of 5.42% in 2050–2100 were expected under SSP585. Climate change is expected to have an impact on the components of the hydrological cycle (such as streamflow and surface runoff). This situation may, therefore, lead to an increase in water stress, calling for the integrated management of available water resources in order to match the increasing water demand in the study area. This study’s findings could be useful for the establishment of adaptation plans to climate change, managing water resources, and water engineering.

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Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Flows Under IPCC RCP Scenarios in the Mountainous Kaidu Watershed, Tarim River Basin

Cited by 20 publications

References 56 publications

Assessment of Surface Water Availability under Climate Change Using Coupled SWAT-WEAP in Hongshui River Basin, China

Assessment of Surface Water Availability under Climate Change Using Coupled SWAT-WEAP in Hongshui River Basin, China

Questioning the use of ensembles versus individual climate model generated flows in future peak flood predictions: Plausibility and implications

Future Climate Change Impact on the Nyabugogo Catchment Water Balance in Rwanda

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