Climate change impacts on groundwater resources: modelled deficits in a chalky aquifer, Geer basin, Belgium

Abstract

An integrated hydrological model (MOHISE) was developed in order to study the impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle in representative water basins in Belgium. This model considers most hydrological processes in a physically consistent way, more particularly groundwater flows which are modelled using a spatially distributed, finite-element approach. Thanks to this accurate numerical tool, after detailed calibration and validation, quantitative interpretations can be drawn from the groundwater model results. Considering IPCC climate change scenarios, the integrated approach was applied to evaluate the impact of climate change on the water cycle in the Geer basin in Belgium. The groundwater model is described in detail, and results are discussed in terms of climate change impact on the evolution of groundwater levels and groundwater reserves. From the modelling application on the Geer basin, it appears that, on a pluriannual basis, most tested scenarios predict a decrease in groundwater levels and reserves in relation to variations in climatic conditions. However, for this aquifer, the tested scenarios show no enhancement of the seasonal changes in groundwater levels.RØsumØ Un modle hydrologique intØgrØ (MOHISE) a ØtØ dØveloppØ afin d'Øtudier l'impact du changement climatique sur le cycle hydrologique de bassins versants reprØsentatifs de Belgique. Ce modle prend en compte tous les processus hydrologiques d'une manire physiquement consistante, plus particulirement les Øcoule-ments souterrains qui sont modØlisØs par une approche spatialement distribuØe aux ØlØments finis. Grâce à cet outil numØrique prØcis, aprs une calibration et une validation dØtaillØes, des interprØtations quantitatives peuvent Þtre rØalisØes à partir des rØsultats du modle de nappe. ConsidØrant des scØnarios de changements climatiques de l'IPCC, l'approche intØgrØe a ØtØ appliquØe pour Øvaluer l'impact du changement climatique sur le cycle de l'eau du bassin du Geer en Belgique. Le modle de nappe est dØcrit en dØtail et les rØsultats sont discutØs en terme d'impact du changement climatique sur l'Øvolution des rØserves souterraines. Les premiers rØsul-tats indiquent que des dØficits d'eau souterraine peuvent apparaître dans le futur en Belgique.Resumen Se ha desarrollado un modelo hidrológico integrado (MOHISE) para estudiar el impacto del cambio climµtico en el ciclo hidrológico de cuencas representativas en BØlgica. Este modelo considera todos los procesos hidrológicos de forma coherente, especialmente en relación con los flujos de aguas subterrµneas, que son modelados por medio de un enfoque de elementos finitos espacialmente distribuidos. Gracias a esta herramienta numØrica precisa, y tras una calibración y validación detalladas, se puede obtener interpretaciones cuantitativas de los resultados del modelo del acuífero. Considerando escenarios de cambio climµtico IPCC, se ha aplicado el enfoque integrado a la evaluación del impacto de dicho cambio climµtico en el ciclo hidrológico de la cuenca del Geer. Se describe los d...

Resistance and Resilience of A Stream Salamander To Supraseasonal Drought

“…In areas where water tables are already high, increased recharge might cause problems in towns and agricultural areas through soil salinisation and waterlogged soils. [WGII 3.4.2] The few studies of climate change impacts on groundwater for individual aquifers show very site-specific and climatemodel-specific results (e.g., Eckhardt and Ulbrich, 2003, for a low mountain range catchment in Central Europe; Brouyere et al, 2004, for a chalk aquifer in Belgium). For example, in the Ogallala Aquifer region, projected natural groundwater recharge decreases more than 20% in all simulations with warming of 2.5°C or greater (Rosenberg et al, 1999).…”

Linking Climate Change and Groundwater

“…The complexity of approaches for obtaining the climate data series appears to have increased in recent years, ranging from the use of global averages (Loaiciga et al 1996;Zektser and Loaiciga 1993) to the use of regional "bulk" projections (Allen et al 2004;Brouyere et al 2004;Vaccaro 1992;Yusoff et al 2002) to the direct application of downscaled climate data (Jyrkama and Sykes 2007;Scibek and Allen 2006b;Scibek et al 2007;Serrat-Capdevila et al 2007;Toews and Allen 2009) to the use of regional climate models (Rivard et al 2008;van Roosmalen et al 2007van Roosmalen et al , 2009). Some of the early efforts to assess potential hydrologic impacts were reviewed by Gleik (1986).…”

Impact of climate change on the groundwater sustainability in the lower Chao Phraya basin, Thailand

“…In addition, climate change is probably one of the most challenging pressures facing hydrological systems and water resources. Consequently, there are several researches subject to the effect of climate change on the groundwater resource such as [1], [2], [3], [4], [5], [6]. [2] investigated the impact of climate change on two small aquifers in western Canada and the United States and revealed the impact from climate change on recharge and groundwater levels at both study areas.…”

“…[2] investigated the impact of climate change on two small aquifers in western Canada and the United States and revealed the impact from climate change on recharge and groundwater levels at both study areas. In addition, [1] examined the impact of climate change on a chalky groundwater basin in Belgium and showed two models had the groundwater levels decreased, while the other showed no significantly changed. Moreover, [7] carried out the study of climate change on groundwater levels in Lansing, Michigan and found that the simulated steadystate groundwater levels were generally predicted to increase or decrease depending on climate change scenarios.…”