Climate change impacts on irrigated rice and wheat production in Gomti River basin of India: a case study

Abstract

Potential future impacts of climate change on irrigated rice and wheat production and their evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements in the Gomti River basin were assessed by integrating a widely used hydrological model “Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)” and climate change scenario generated from MIROC (HiRes) global climate model. SWAT model was calibrated and validated using monthly streamflow data of four spatially distributed gauging stations and district wise wheat and rice yields data for the districts located within the basin. Simulation results showed an increase in mean annual rice yield in the range of 5.5–6.7, 16.6–20.2 and 26–33.4 % during 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. Similarly, mean annual wheat yield is also likely to increase by 13.9–15.4, 23.6–25.6 and 25.2–27.9 % for the same future time periods. Evapotranspiration for both wheat and rice is projected to increase in the range of 3–9.6 and 7.8–16.3 %, respectively. With increase in rainfall during rice growing season, irrigation water allocation for rice is likely to decrease (<5 %) in future periods, but irrigation water allocation for wheat is likely to increase by 17.0–45.3 % in future periods.

Effect of Climate Change in the Stream Flow, Crop Yields and NP Levels at White Oak Bayou Watershed Using SWAT simulation: A Case Study

“…The simulated that although runoff increased very little between the 1970s and the 2000s due to the combined effects of LULC and climate changes, LULC and climate changes affected surface runoff differently in each decade, i.e., runoff increased with elevated precipitation between the 1970s and the 1980s (precipitation contributed 88% to the increased runoff). Thereafter, runoff decreased and became increasingly influenced by LULC change, with a 44% contribution between the 1980s and the 1990s and a 71% contribution between the Also, evapotranspiration for both wheat and rice is projected to increase in the range of 3-9.6 and 7.8-16.3%, respectively based on potential future impacts of climate change on irrigated rice and wheat production a evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements in the Gomti River basin, China [4].…”

“…Similarly, simulation results on potential future impacts of climate change on irrigated rice and wheat production in the Gomti River basin, China showed an increase in mean annual rice yield in the range of 5.5-6.7, 16.6-20.2 and 26 during 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. Similarly, mean annual wheat yield is also likely to increase by 13.9-15.4, 23.6 and 25.2-27.9 % for the same future time periods [4].…”

“…The increase in temperature under climate change scenarios is expected to increase the evapotranspiration (ET) demand. Various studies conducted to study the effects of climate change on the crop production showed that the effect of climate change on crop production varied with the climate change scenario used, current climate, cropping systems, management practices and also from region to region [4,5,6,7,8]. Therefore, understanding the impacts of climate change on crop production and water resources is of utmost importance for developing possible adaptation strategies.…”

Climate Change and Indian Agriculture: Impacts on Crop Yield

“…The study also reports that the combined effect of rising CO2 and temperature increase is an increase in wheat and rice yield by 21% and 4% respectively under existing irrigation practice. Aggarwal and Mall (2002) The study by Abeysingha et al (2016) on the Gomti River Basin of India reveals that there would be an increase in mean annual rice yield in the range of 5.5-6. 7%, 16.6-20.2% and 26-33.4 % during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively.…”

Rainfall variability and drought during the sowing season and mid-season of rice in the Sudano-Sahelian Region of Nigeria

“…Introduction Crop yields must increase significantly in the approaching decades to match tempo with worldwide food demand as a result of population and income expansion (Zhao & Fitzgerald, 2013;van Ittersum et al, 2013;van Wart et al, 2013;Ajala & Gana, 2015;Islam et al, 2016) amid the challenges of climate change which will militate against food production (Abeysingha et al, 2016;Ekpa et al, 2018). Climatic variability is among the most important parameters determining annual variations in crop yields (Kang et al, 2009;Craufurd and Wheeler, 2009;Nyang'au et al, 2014;Ray et al, 2015).…”