Climate change impacts on regional winter wheat production in main wheat production regions of China

Lv, Zunfu; Liu, Xiaojun; Cao, Weixing; Zhu, Yan

doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.12.008

Cited by 123 publications

(61 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…The most pronounced influence of high temperature on wheat growth is a significantly shorter duration of grain-filling (Tashiro and Wardlaw, 1989). Many studies have predicted wheat production based on regional climate models (Lobell et al, 2012;Lv et al, 2013), while regional improvement of cultivars and crop management is able to adapt wheat production to climate change. As we face significant year-to-year climatic variations, it will be critical for regions to have a strong understanding * Correspondence to: S. Shimoda, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, Hokkaido Agricultural Research Center, Memuro Research Station (NARO/HARC/M), Shinsei-Minami, Memuro, Kasai, Hokkaido 082-0081, Japan.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity of wheat yield to temperature changes with regional sunlight characteristics in eastern Hokkaido

Shimoda

Hamasaki

Hirota

et al. 2015

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Air temperature and sunshine duration for agricultural fields were extracted from 1-km-resolution weather data, and their relationship with winter wheat yield was compared for the adjacent Tokachi and Okhotsk regions of eastern Hokkaido, Japan. Major climatic drivers of winter wheat yield were air temperature during spring and grain-filling period in Tokachi, and sunshine duration during grain-filling period in Okhotsk. The regional difference in the sensitivity of yield to air temperature is attributed to variations in sunshine duration during grain-filling period. In Tokachi, a shorter grain-filling period limits the cumulative sunlight available to plants, because sunshine duration declines from late June to late July. In Okhotsk, yields of winter wheat were attributed to receiving adequate sunlight, although the growth period was curtailed by higher air temperature. We found that different climatic drivers affected winter wheat yield even in adjacent regions. The sensitivity of winter wheat yield to temperature can be determined by a threshold of 4.5 h daily sunshine duration regardless of region. Short sunshine duration during the grain-filling period exacerbated the sensitivity of wheat yield to temperature. Early summer in Okhotsk is characterized by sunnier weather than in Tokachi due to foehn, with respect to the southerly winds. Then, southerly wind was associated with significantly longer sunshine duration in Okhotsk. Regional cloud development affects sunshine duration as the climatic driver of wheat yield.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity of wheat yield to temperature changes with regional sunlight characteristics in eastern Hokkaido

Shimoda

Hamasaki

Hirota

et al. 2015

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Koristeći rezultate globalnog klimatskog modela i WheatGrow modela za simulaciju prinosa pšenice u glavnim proizvodnim regionima u Kini, Lv et al (2013) su došli do zaključka da će se prinosi pšenice u uslovima bez navodnjavanja smanjiti u severnom delu do kraja veka, dok će se prinosi povećati u južnim regionima. U uslovima navodnjavanja se očekuje povećanje prinosa u svim regionima, ali ograničeni resursi vode u tom slučaju iziskuju i maksimalnu efikasnost korišćenja vode.…”

Section: Uvodunclassified

Application of AquaCrop model for yield and irrigation requirement estimation of sugar beet under climate change conditions in Serbia

Stričević

Djurović

Vuković³

et al. 2014

J AGR SCI BELGRADE

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Rezime: Uticaj klimatskih promena na proizvodnju hrane je od velikog značaja za strateško planiranje upravljanja prirodnim resursima, pre svega vode i zemljišta. Stoga je cilj ovoga rada bio da se proceni kako klimatske promene mogu uticati na prinose šećerne repe, norme navodnjavanja i mogućnosti uštede vode za navodnjavanje. Za simulaciju prinosa i potreba useva za vodom korišćen je model AquaCrop i rezultati povezanog regionalnog klimatskog modela za atmosferu i okean EBU-POM za scenarija A1B, A2 za prvi period (2010-2039); drugi (2040-2069) i treći . U scenarijima sa oznakom A1B* i A2* su u modelu AquaCrop uzete povećane koncentracije CO 2 . Na područjima Vojvodine i centralne Srbije se jasno vidi da se u prvom periodu neće smanjiti prinosi ni po jednom scenariju, već se mogu očekivati i povećanja po svim varijantama gajenja šećerne repe. U drugom periodu, uočavaju se padovi prinosa u scenarijima A1B i A2 na području Vojvodine, dok se u centralnoj Srbiji može očekivati i pad prinosa u scenariju A1B kao i u scenariju A2*. Navodnjavanjem se u svim scenarijima značajno povećava prinos, s tim što je povećanje prinosa izraženije na području centralne Srbije. Ukoliko bi se koristile optimalne norme navodnjvanja prinos bi mogao da se poveća od 57-97% u Vojvodini i 77-285% u centralnoj Srbiji. Uticaj navodnjavanja na povećanje prinosa je najmanji u prvom periodu i on linearno raste u drugom i trećem periodu. U uslovima redukovanog navodnjavanja u scenariju A2, na području centralne Srbije voda bi mogla da se uštedi samo na račun pada prinosa. Za postizanje visokih prinosa, neophodno je obezbediti od 300 do 500 mm vode, a na području Vojvodine od 300 do 420 mm, s mogućnošću uštede za oko 20%. Pri scenariju A1B bi se moglo uštedeti do 80 mm na oba područja.

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“…Irrigated wheat production accounts for almost half of global wheat production, and approximately 90% of irrigated wheat production occurs in developing countries (Shiferaw et al 2013). Groundwater depletion (Balwinder et al 2011;Chen et al 2010;Liu et al 2013;Lv et al 2013;Zhao et al 2013), limited surface water resources, and increasing soil salinity (Seifert et al 2011) create enormous challenges for regions that depend on these irrigated wheat systems. Demand for wheat will likely increase, given that global population is projected to exceed 9 billion by 2050 (BeVier 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…Demand for wheat will likely increase, given that global population is projected to exceed 9 billion by 2050 (BeVier 2012). Increases in water price (Shiferaw et al 2013) and reduction in water quality (Lv et al 2013) will further exacerbate the challenges farmers face in irrigated regions. Improvements in crop management and breeding are needed to secure future wheat production increases.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The value of seasonal forecasts for irrigated, supplementary irrigated, and rainfed wheat cropping systems in northwest Mexico

Ramírez-Rodrigues

Alderman

Stefanova

et al. 2016

Agricultural Systems

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Climate change impacts on regional winter wheat production in main wheat production regions of China

Cited by 123 publications

References 44 publications

Sensitivity of wheat yield to temperature changes with regional sunlight characteristics in eastern Hokkaido

Sensitivity of wheat yield to temperature changes with regional sunlight characteristics in eastern Hokkaido

Application of AquaCrop model for yield and irrigation requirement estimation of sugar beet under climate change conditions in Serbia

The value of seasonal forecasts for irrigated, supplementary irrigated, and rainfed wheat cropping systems in northwest Mexico

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