Climate Change Impacts on Reservoir Inflow in the Prairie Pothole Region: A Watershed Model Analysis

Abstract

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is known for its hydrologically complex landscape with a large number of pothole wetlands. However, most watershed-scale hydrologic models that are applied in this region are incapable of representing the dynamic nature of contributing area and fill-spill processes affected by pothole wetlands. The inability to simulate these processes represents a critical limitation for operators and flood forecasters and may hinder the management of large reservoirs. We used a modified version of the soil water assessment tool (SWAT) model capable of simulating the dynamics of variable contributing areas and fill-spill processes to assess the impact of climate change on upstream inflows into the Shellmouth reservoir (also called Lake of the Prairie), which is an important reservoir built to provide multiple purposes, including flood and drought mitigation. We calibrated our modified SWAT model at a daily time step using SUFI-2 algorithm within SWAT-CUP for the period 1991–2000 and validated for 2005–2014, which gave acceptable performance statistics for both the calibration (KGE = 0.70, PBIAS = −13.5) and validation (KGE = 0.70, PBIAS = 21.5) periods. We then forced the calibrated model with future climate projections using representative concentration pathways (RCPs; 4.5, 8.5) for the near (2011–2040) and middle futures (2041–2070) of multiple regional climate models (RCMs). Our modeling results suggest that climate change will lead to a two-fold increase in winter streamflow, a slight increase in summer flow, and decrease spring peak flows into the Shellmouth reservoir. Investigating the impact of climate change on the operation of the Shellmouth reservoir is critically important because climate change could present significant challenges to the operation and management of the reservoir.

Integrated Surface Water and Groundwater Analysis under the Effects of Climate Change, Hydraulic Fracturing and its Associated Activities: A Case Study from Northwestern Alberta, Canada

“…The increment of stream flow generated in the study area under the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 scenarios is 141.43% and 148.51%, respectively. A similar high-increase in stream flow due to the increased precipitation was found by Guo et al [59] in the Xinjiang River basin, China, and Muhammad et al [60] in the upper Assiniboine River Basin, Canada. Therefore, more annual water extraction from the river, and allocation to the stakeholders for future water supply could be possible under both scenarios in 2021-2036 than under the base modeling period.…”

Modeling climate change impact on the inflow of the Magat reservoir using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for dam management

“…These reductions in inflow in the reservoir during dry seasons convey a strong indication that the reservoir may become dry in the near future (Joshi & Makhasana 2020). An increase in the inflow, however, may require a change of the operation rules of the reservoir in order to adapt to the new changing reality (Muhammad et al 2020). However, rule curves for reservoirs are based on desired end-of-month storage; as a result, the key choice to be made each month is how much storage to provide for the reservoir.…”

Application of Water Stable Isotopes for Hydrological Characterization of the Red River (Asia)

“…We interpret that in a year of high (low) rainfall, the river discharge would be high (low), producing a positive correlation between rainfall and runoff. On the other hand, an increase in reservoir volume would increase water storage in the catchments [24,25]. Hydrological processes related to the catchment storage variability such as infiltration, groundwater recharge, and evaporation are enhanced to reduce the surface water runoff.…”