Climate change impacts on streamflow and sediment yield in the North of Iran

Azari, Mahmood; Moradi, Hamid Reza; Saghafian, Bahram; Faramarzi, Monireh

doi:10.1080/02626667.2014.967695

Cited by 86 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…It has been revealed in a study conducted by Adem et al [51] in the Upper Gilgel Abay of the Blue Nile Basin in Ethiopia that sediment yield was related to a change in climate variables and thus to streamflow. The variation in the values of sediment yield due to streamflow change that resulted from climate change has also been reported by many scholars [12,17,26,54,55]. In a similar study, average annual sediment loads generally decreased in response to climate change by 23.5% and 3.3% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively in the mid-century (2046-2065) [15].…”

Section: Effect Of Climate Change On Lake Sedimentationsupporting

confidence: 74%

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The Effect of Climate Change on Loss of Lake Volume: Case of Sedimentation in Central Rift Valley Basin, Ethiopia

et al. 2018

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Evaluating the impact of climate change on sediment yield has become one of the major topics in climate research. The purpose of this study was to investigate sediment yield contribution to lake volume change under changing climatic conditions in the Central Rift Valley Basin. The ensemble mean of five regional climate models (RCMs) in the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX)-Africa was considered for the purpose of this study. The climate variables (precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures) in RCMs were bias corrected against observed data using linear scaling (LS), power transformation (PT), variance of scaling (VS), and quantile mapping (QM). Two emission scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were considered for the future scenario period . Better results were obtained when the ensemble values of the bias correction methods were used. Hence, the projected values of climate variables after bias correction were used in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model to estimate the sediment yield contribution to lake volume change due to climate change. The results show that the average projected precipitation will decrease by 7.97% and 2.55% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. On average, the maximum temperature will increase by 1.73 • C and 2.36 • C under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, while the minimum temperature will increase by 2.16 • C and 3.07 • C under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The average annual sediment yield contributions to Lake Ziway were 431.05 ton/km 2 and 322.82 ton/km 2 for the Meki and Ketar rivers, respectively, in the historical period . The study also reveals that the annual sediment yield that was estimated for the Meki River was 323 ton/km 2 and 382 ton/km 2 under RCP4.5 and under RCP8.5, respectively. The sediment estimations for the Ketar River were 157 ton/km 2 and 211 ton/km 2 under RCP4.5 under RCP8.5, respectively. This will decrease the rate of volume change in Lake Ziway by 38% under RCP4.5 and by 23% under RCP8.5. The results show that the life expectancy of the lake is likely to increase under climate change scenarios. This will help water resources managers make informed decisions regarding the planning, management, and mitigation of the river basins.Hydrology 2018, 5, 67 2 of 18 reservoirs, ponds, and rivers. The sedimentation of the water bodies reduces their capacity and the useful lifespan of the reservoir. Sediment yield can be described as the amount of sediment that would enter into a reservoir located at the outlet of the basin [1]. It is the net result of soil erosion and processes of sediment accumulation, so it depends on variables that control water and sediment discharge to reservoirs [2]. Sediment yield is influenced by many factors, which include topography, soil, climate, land use, and drainage characteristics [3][4][5][6]. The problem of sedimentation is aggravated by human activities and climate change. A study conducted by Belete [7] on Lake Hawasa showed that sediment...

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Section: Effect Of Climate Change On Lake Sedimentationsupporting

confidence: 74%

“…Ayele et al [25] also used the SWAT model for sediment yield prediction in the Upper Blue Nile Basin. Cousino et al [15] and Azari et al [26] have also applied the SWAT model to evaluate the impact of climate change on sediment yield.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effect of Climate Change on Loss of Lake Volume: Case of Sedimentation in Central Rift Valley Basin, Ethiopia

et al. 2018

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“…However, these results are not in agreement with the finding of Angelina et al [20] who showed an increase of mean annual flow of the Niger river basin at Koulikoro by 6.9% (2026-2050), 0.9% (2051-2075), and 5.6% (2076-2100) by using a SWAT model under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. Additionally, Azari et al [12] showed an increase in stream-flow under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the Gorganroud River basin in the North of Iran. The differences in hydrological models used as well as the area of study (difference in climate, soil, relief, land use, etc.)…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Increased evaporation, combined with changes in precipitation, has the potential to affect runoff, the frequency and intensity of floods and droughts, soil moisture, and available water for irrigation and hydroelectric generation [4]. Azari et al [12] highlighted that a long trend increase in temperature will considerably impact the hydrological cycle, thus changing rainfall pattern and the magnitude and timing of runoff. In Africa, climate change and its impact on water resources availability in space and time have put complex challenges to the African countries in their objective to better manage water resources and improve food security [13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Climate Change Impacts on Streamflows of Two Main West Africa River Basins: Senegal and Gambia

et al. 2018

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This research investigated the effect of climate change on the two main river basins of Senegal in West Africa: the Senegal and Gambia River Basins. We used downscaled projected future rainfall and potential evapotranspiration based on projected temperature from six General Circulation Models (CanESM2, CNRM, CSIRO, HadGEM2-CC, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5) and two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to force the GR4J model. The GR4J model was calibrated and validated using observed daily rainfall, potential evapotranspiration from observed daily temperature, and streamflow data. For the cross-validation, two periods for each river basin were considered: 1961-1982 and 1983-2004 for the Senegal River Basin at Bafing Makana, and 1969Makana, and -1985Makana, and and 1986Makana, and -2000 for the Gambia River Basin at Mako. Model efficiency is evaluated using a multi-criteria function (F agg ) which aggregates Nash and Sutcliffe criteria, cumulative volume error, and mean volume error. Alternating periods of simulation for calibration and validation were used. This process allows us to choose the parameters that best reflect the rainfall-runoff relationship. Once the model was calibrated and validated, we simulated streamflow at Bafing Makana and Mako stations in the near future at a daily scale. The characteristic flow rates were calculated to evaluate their possible evolution under the projected climate scenarios at the 2050 horizon. For the near future (2050 horizon), compared to the 1971-2000 reference period, results showed that for both river basins, multi-model ensemble predicted a decrease of annual streamflow from 8% (Senegal River Basin) to 22% (Gambia River Basin) under the RCP4.5 scenario. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the decrease is more pronounced: 16% (Senegal River Basin) and 26% (Gambia River Basin). The Gambia River Basin will be more affected by the climate change.

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“…The impacts on hydrological processes are mainly caused by temperature increases and precipitation variations, generating increased stream flows and extreme weather events (Arreguín-Cortés & López-Pérez, 2013;Azari, Moradi, Saghafian, & Faramarzi, 2016;Wu, Qian, Li, & Song, 2014b). Flash floods are regarded as a result of climatic changes and poor drainage infrastructure and have been frequently reported in China in recent years, causing casualties and enormous economic losses.…”

Section: Water Resources Research To Support a Sustainable Chinamentioning

confidence: 99%

Water resources research to support a sustainable China

Qian

2018

International Journal of Water Resources Development

202

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a school of environmental science and engineering, chang'an university, Xi 'an, china; b Key laboratory of subsurface Hydrology and ecological effects in arid region of the ministry of education, chang'an university, Xi'an, china ABSTRACT Water resources are the basis for the sustainable development of China. However, the country is currently facing alarming waterrelated problems associated with its fast economic development and climate change. This editorial introduces briefly the status of its water resources research at the national level and the researcher level. It also introduces the research reported in this thematic issue to highlight its role in addressing flood and water-scarcity issues, improving water management in inland plains and supporting the sustainable development of the country. Finally, some further recommendations for improving water resources research in China are offered.

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Climate change impacts on streamflow and sediment yield in the North of Iran

Cited by 86 publications

References 29 publications

The Effect of Climate Change on Loss of Lake Volume: Case of Sedimentation in Central Rift Valley Basin, Ethiopia

The Effect of Climate Change on Loss of Lake Volume: Case of Sedimentation in Central Rift Valley Basin, Ethiopia

Future Climate Change Impacts on Streamflows of Two Main West Africa River Basins: Senegal and Gambia

Water resources research to support a sustainable China

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