Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution of Apocheima cinerarius (Erschoff) (Lepidoptera: Geometridae)

Abstract

Among the impacts of ongoing and projected climate change are shifts in the distribution and severity of insect pests. Projecting those impacts is necessary to ensure effective pest management in the future. Apocheima cinerarius (Erschoff) (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) is an important polyphagous forest pest in China where causes huge economic and ecological losses in 20 provinces. Under historical climatic conditions, the suitable areas for A. cinerarius in China are mainly in the northern temperate zone (30–50° N) and the southern temperate zone (20–60° S). Using the CLIMEX model, the potential distribution of the pest in China and globally, both historically and under climate change, were estimated. Suitable habitats for A. cinerarius occur in parts of all continents. With climate change, its potential distribution extends northward in China and generally elsewhere in the northern hemisphere, although effects vary depending on latitude. In other areas of the world, some habitats become less suitable for the species. Based on the simulated growth index in CLIMEX, the onset of A. cinerarius would be earlier under climate change in some of its potential range, including Spain and Korea. Measures should anticipate the need for prevention and control of A. cinerarius in its potential extended range in China and globally.

Projecting the Global Potential Geographical Distribution of Ceratitis capitata (Diptera: Tephritidae) under Current and Future Climates

“…Among these, the HS index and WS index are important factors leading to a decrease in the PGD of MFF under future climate conditions ( Figure 6 ). One limitation of the current study is that the CLIMEX model only considers climatic factors [ 45 ]. However, aside from climate, additional factors can influence the spread of pests, such as human activities, topographic changes, host plants, and natural enemies [ 46 ].…”

Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution Pattern of Osphya (Coleoptera: Melandryidae), an Old but Small Beetle Group Distributed in the Northern Hemisphere

“…First of all, the evaluation metrics of the SDMs merely represented the quality of the simulation rather than the actual distribution of the candidates, which indicated that the results obtained via the SDMs were probably phenomenological and not mechanistic [ 82 ]. In addition, although we included many environmental variables when building the SDMs, they were still insufficient to determine the true distribution conditions of the species because many other important variables were missing from our models, such as biological interactions [ 138 ], topography constraints [ 5 ], human activities [ 139 ], and natural enemies [ 140 ]. All of these factors play a significant role in their distribution locations and ranges, and, even under suitable biological and abiotic conditions, species may still lose their suitable distribution areas for some time [ 141 , 142 ].…”

The Impacts of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Plodia interpunctella (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) in China

“…CLIMEX can model environmental suitability for a species on a seasonal basis. It has been used to predict the distributions of many species of insects [ 47 ]. P. interpunctella has the characteristics of euryphagy and crypticity, and it is distributed all over the world, which indicates that it has a strong continuous transmission ability.…”